Mr Speaker, Sir, this year's Budget statement has been more responsive, conciliatory and less aggressive than those presented in previous years. The Minister for Finance is new. He is not contentious. He is not like the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Defence who sounds like Caspar Weinberger. He has my sympathy, although he is not here, for having to reap the wild oats that others have sown. Eleven studies with recommendations have been submitted by various sectors of business and industry to the Government. Each sector has spelt out its problems loud and clear. So there is not much more that we in this House can add and I do not wish to go over old ground that has been covered in the debate on the President's Address. Commodity prices have been falling since 1983. But it has taken the Government a long time to understand the implications for Singapore. Property prices have also fallen. The value of shares in the stock market has fallen. The value of collateral on loans held by banks and finance companies has fallen with the result that mortgages and other loans have become non-performing. The result is distress sales not only of property but also liquidation of industrial and construction equipment. Liquidity is tight as shown in the declining annual growth rate in the money supply since 1981. For this, we have to thank the high CPF rates and successive Government budget surpluses that soaked money out of the system. Against this background of deflation, a strong Singapore dollar hides what is really a weak economy that has seen a record number of winding up of companies and businesses and loss of jobs. The problem that we face today is that 100,000 jobs have been lost. Foreign firms have either pulled out or cut down the scale of their operations and sent their expatriate staff home. Economics does not concern itself with citizenship. What it means is that there is less private spending in the retail sector and a drop in the demand for rented accommodation. The problem of businesses today is how to survive this year, and the fear of workers is whether they will keep their jobs or have their pay cut in the next six months. If they cannot survive through 1986, no glorious vision of 1999 will inspire them. My constituents are not great economic thinkers but they see the ebb and flow of the economy through retail shops, restaurants, bars, coffee shops and hawker stalls. They understand turnover. Without private spending, there is no turnover, and without turnover, business is dead. When the Stock Exchange index was reaching a new high each month, it was the brokers and the speculators who passed the boom to the retail trade. Today, the stock market is limping along. Those who are sanctimonious about speculation and gambling may not understand that in Hong Kong, horse racing is held three times a week. The bookies, the punters and the hangers-on are patrons of night clubs, bars and restaurants. It is they, not the directors of Singapore Pools (Pte) Ltd, who spend. In Singapore, even as unlicensed bookies are zealously pursued by police, bars, coffee shops and restaurants see a further downturn in business. The Government can dismiss the contribution of this grey fringe of the economy to Singapore's GDP, just as the Minister for Finance, in justifying the recent closure of the Stock Exchange for three days, belittles the role of the Exchange in Singapore's economy with his statistics. The danger of total trust and absolute reliance on statistical data for policy making is to ignore the human factor which can make economic predictions less reliable than forecasting the weather, which at least is in the hands of God. So it is not surprising that the idea of the consumption tax is being raised solely in terms of covering up Government revenue that will be lost through income tax rebates. Equally, it is not surprising that quick reaction has been evoked among the public and backbenchers. A consumption tax is not new, as the Member for Kebun Baru said this morning. But to be successful it has to be broad based, like the Government levy on Telecoms bills, PUB bills, 3% cess on food and beverage consumed in restaurants. If excise duty is another way of calling a consumption tax, then there are consumption taxes on tobacco, liquor and petrol. But when the Minister for Finance tells us that a machinery will be set up this year to collect a consumption tax, that tax sounds like a new tax. And we have to accept that the Government has made up its mind, regardless of public opinion. Take heed: if the consumption tax, whatever from it takes, is to control private spending, imposing it this year or the next can only lead Singapore to a downward spiralling depression. May I ask, is more taxation necessary? Singapore's infrastructure in the port, in roads, sewerage, communications, factories, warehouses and housing, has almost completely been developed. Outside the MRT and the second terminal for the Airport, there will be little scope for public expenditure in capital works in the next few years. There is already under-utilization of existing capacity in every part of the property sector. So further Government spending to stimulate the economy can turn out to be an exercise in waste. It will not justify further taxation to replenish Government coffers. Four thousand years ago, all the resources in Egypt were concentrated in the hands of the Pharoahs. They built pyramids, stimulated the construction industry and created work for artisans and peasants. If the Pharoahs had established national accounts at that time, Egypt would have recorded double digit growth in GDP. But the immense resources in material and manpower needed to build these monuments to the Pharoahs impoverished the country. There are no pyramids in Singapore, but take a drive down the East Coast Parkway onto Benjamin Sheares bridge towards Keppel. One can have a grand view of Singapore's landscape outlined by the CPF building, the Treasury building and the MAS building standing side by side, half empty monuments to the ego of the bureaucracy. Construction costs were $474 million, and if land costs were imputed at 50%, total costs would be close to $711 million. The Finance Minister's estimate of a $3,217 million deficit for financial year 1986 is accounted for by spending on development. Under the Development Estimates the Ministry of National Development will be spending $10,073 million, but of this amount $8,814 million will be lent to the HDB. If it is a loan, it will be recovered with interest payment at some future date and will have to be accounted for as receipt in future revenue estimates. What it really means is that taxpayers are asked to pay for a Government loan to the HDB which will be repaid eventually through sales and rental of flats, shops, factories and warehouses. The HDB is the largest property developer in Singapore. It should have gone public on the Stock Exchange. There is no reason why the loan it requires for development should not be taken out as public bond issues and not through taxes. If this were done, the deficit will disappear and instead there will be a surplus of $5,460 million in the Budget. Over and above the problems that have been related in this House and in the Economic Committee's Report is the property overhang. In a recession a government normally falls on the building and construction industry to pull the economy out, but this recourse is not possible given the excess capacity of residential units, offices, shops, warehouses, factories and hotels. This under-utilization of property will remain for the next four years and may even continue beyond 1990 if occupancy rates remain low. When a 5-star hotel in Singapore sells at 3-star rates, when an international hotel management that used to sell rooms at $200 a day now sells rooms in a new 5-star hotel at $70 a day, it goes to show the parlous state we are in. There has been an increase of hotel rooms by 85% in five years during which tourist arrivals increased by only 18%. Supply does not create demand. Statistics put up by the Property Consultative Committee are startling when they are compared to those of Hong Kong. Singapore has more office space, more factory space, more warehouse space, more hotel rooms per sq. km land area than Hong Kong. The ratio of Singapore built-up space to Hong Kong is that Singapore has 1.14 times more office space, 1.2 times more factory space; 2.07 times more warehouse space; and 1.8 times more hotel rooms. Where are the people to fill our offices, factories and hotels? There are more sq. metres per person in Singapore than in Hong Kong. Built-up space per person: for office space it is 1.4 times bigger than for Hong Kong; 1.56 times bigger for factory space; 2.2 times more for hotel rooms. In other words, Singapore needs that many times more workers to utilize the same area of office and factory space as efficiently as Hong Kong. To stimulate more building under present circumstances is an economic waste, a wrongful use of money on non-performing assets that will lead to non-performing loans. The HDB will have to spell out the purpose of the $8,814 million loan it is asking. And in this budget we have not been presented even a note on the nature of the spending. How will the money be spent, when already 84% of the population are living in HDB flats? There will be no market left for the private sector. Indeed, housing is Singapore's biggest achievement. But there has always been a price to it and I would prefer to let the people know how cheap housing has been paid for. Housing in many developed countries does not necessarily mean home ownership. It can be cheaper to rent than to buy, particularly for those who are mobile. We had a mix of rented HDB flats and purchased flats. That mix has been changed for political reasons. The loan to the HDB for financial year 1986 is almost twice that for financial year 1985. Just imagine, a private developer going to his bankers for a loan of that size. The bankers will fall off their seats! I would advise the Minister for National Development, if he were here, not to do everything in his life-time. Leave some work for future generations of architects, engineers and contractors. Let the future generation earn the money. We have already on our hands the most expensive social security system in the world, paid for through high CPF rates. That has landed us in the jam that we are in today. The CPF is a cheap source of borrowing for the Government. Even when the prime rate at its high was 13.6%, the CPF was lending to the Government at 6�%. Now that the prime rate has fallen to 7.2%, CPF contributors have been forewarned that interest on their balances will be at market rates which currently are 5�% for POSB accounts and 4 % to 5% for savings accounts in commercial banks. It still means that borrowings from the CPF will be below the prime rate. So we had the Blue Paper in 1984 which sought to extend the withdrawal age for CPF contributions, from 55 years to 60 years. Likewise, Medisave guarantees that there will be money in the CPF kitty as a contributor cannot withdraw this account even after retirement. In fact, he may not even be able to withdraw all of it after he is dead. CPF funds are still available for Government borrowing. The proposed consumer tax will be the new milch cow. It will be a free gift to the Government who will lend it to the HDB who will repay the Government at some future time, 20 years for loans for constructing flats for sale and 60 years for loans for properties for rent. It is not only the HDB that borrows from the Government. Other statutory bodies and Government companies are also supplicants for loans. That ought to make us worry. The vacancy rate for HDB factories is 40% and 27% for JTC factories. The vacancy rate for HDB warehouses is 23%, 43% for JTC and 42% for PSA warehouses. The Government cannot on the one hand pronounce that there has been a misallocation of resources, too much money locked in property and on the other acquiesce to the HDB's escalating building loans. We are, of course, interested in the question whether the fiscal measures that have been pronounced inside and outside Parliament will turn the economy around. The Government is now seen as the pacesetter. Through the statutory boards and the companies it operates, the Government is so dominant in the economy that Singapore has become so much smaller for the entrepreneur and private enterprises. This position is magnified by Singapore's small economy. Equity in Raffles City Hotel is controlled by the DBS, Temasek Holdings, SIA, PSA and the Singapore Tourist Promotion Board, all of which are statutory bodies or Government companies. The managers of this conglomerate have a degree of freedom that a private hotel management does not, mainly because of its backing by Government. The 3% cess on food and beverages consumed in restaurants and the 3% cess on hotel rooms is paid to finance the STPB to promote tourism in general. It is not intended that this cess should become capital for STPB to invest in a hotel. Surely, there must be a conflict between the STPB's interest in a Government hotel and its efforts to promote competing hotels. Last year, during the Budget debate, I strongly advocated greater accountability of statutory boards and Government companies as it is in the interest of the Singapore body politic to understand how taxpayers' money or public money is spent to oil the Government economic machine. No action seems to have been taken. Neither has the Public Accounts Committee been offered documentation of Government enterprises. Memories are short. We have forgotten about the purchase of Granite House by the Singapore Government. So I feel compelled again to ask the Minister for Finance for a written answer on the profits and losses of Government companies. The temptation of Government companies to collaborate with each other or with bodies close to the Government is to be expected. This is being done to the prejudice of private sector enterprises. I understand that Singapore Pools (Pte) Limited will be working with the NTUC to sell 4-D and Toto tickets that previously have been farmed out to private individuals. The NTUC and Singapore Pools are, of course, operating under cover of Government legislation. Does the NTUC really need the commission? Given that civil servants sit on the board of Government companies, they have the pull and the clout that private companies do not have. Private businesses that are outside the pale of Government patronage and protection will not be able to compete. It does create cynicism indeed when the Economic Committee advocates greater dependence on the private sector to pull the economy out of this trough, but the contrary is seen as economic power remains centralized. Will the fiscal measures bring a turnaround of the recession? The measures are seen in the market as a stop- loss operation. Those companies that have been chased out of Singapore by past Government policies are in no hurry to come back. New investors are unable to make any feasibility studies for their operation or new investment in Singapore when there is uncertainty at the end of two years. Two years is the magic number. Two years for the reduction in employer's contribution to the CPF. Two years for the reduction to the Skills Development Fund. The 15% cut in employer's contribution is correct but it becomes counter- productive to qualify that this will only last for that short span of time. I do not know. It may be a political gambit to placate the NTUC. But it was foolish to create the impression all along that the employer's contribution is part of their pay. It is not. It is unearned income, not for work done and it has never been negotiable. It is a tax on labour in Singapore as in other countries which have social security systems. It is a tax for the social security that we have and the amount is dictated by the Government. Businesses go wherever they perceive a cost advantage or price advantage. In Hong Kong, there is no social security tax equivalent to the CPF. Nor is there one in South Korea. As for Taiwan, there is labour insurance in which the employer contributes 5.6% and the employee 1.4% of gross monthly wages. A repetitive note that has been made in the Presidential Address and in the Budget speech is the need for Singapore to be internationally competitive and competing in the world market means price. And price is related to the cost of doing business in Singapore as well as the foreign exchange rate of the Singapore dollar. It may be useful to note how the currencies of the four newly industrialized countries have fluctuated against the United States dollar last year when the G-5 talked the dollar down. The percentage changes against the United States dollar from the first quarter of 1985 to December 1985 has resulted in the South Korean Won having depreciated 5.75%, the Taiwan NT dollar depreciated 1.28%, Hong Kong dollar has not changed because it is pegged to the US dollar, the Singapore dollar on the contrary appreciated 5.71%. In other words, the Singapore dollar was more expensive than the Korean Won by 11.5%, the Taiwan NT by 7% and the Hong Kong dollar by 5.7%. That helps Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong to be more price-competitive than Singapore in exports and the tourist industry. An over-valued currency is deflationary as the Japanese have found with an over-valued Yen. The exporter will be getting less Singapore dollars for his US dollars. The alternative is for him to raise his US dollar price. By doing so, he may become uncompetitive and loses his share of the market. We cannot expect the Minister for Finance to talk the dollar down. It should be left to market forces, so says the Economic Committee's Report. It can be taken to mean that the MAS is also in the market, a point that the Member for Alexandra drew attention to recently. So when the Minister for Finance denied that MAS had intervened again, following the opening of Parliament, I am afraid the market has not been receptive to his answer. Traders have to hedge forward to protect their export or import earnings but they will be at the losing end each time when fundamentals move the market but the MAS perceives speculators as the moving force and intervenes causing interest rates to rise. May I come to Research and Development and the Skills Development Fund. I support the Minister for Finance's tax exemption on R&D. That is fine, particularly in the light that we are spending more money on planting trees and chopping them down than on research. Buying a weighing machine, a microscope and a dozen test tubes and employing a white coated technician is not research when it really is quality control. Hong Kong has no R&D or Skills Development Fund incentives but it went on from exporting wigs to plastic flowers, toys to fashion dresses, watches to electrical and electronic goods. Hong Kong industry has never been preconceived in a master plan. It is the flexibility of the Hong Kong worker and the imagination and ingenuity of the entrepreneur that has made Hong Kong. So unless the Inland Revenue Department understands what is research and what is development, R&D incentive can offer a tax loophole. The allocation of money from the Skills Development Fund is left to the judgment of the bureaucracy who is biased by policy decisions or directions. Companies that have been enjoying pioneer status collect an additional windfall when they apply to the Skills Development Fund. In reality, many small businesses that have been paying to the Skills Development Fund since its inception have no chance of smelling at the Fund at all. They are being taxed to support companies that have the resources to train their own staff. A surplus of $102 million in the Skills Development Fund no longer justifies continued imposition of the 1% tax. It should be abolished. Any claim for tax exemption on expenditure used for training skills should be made to the Inland Revenue Department just as claims for tax exemption on R & D expenses have to be justified before the Inland Revenue Department. May I end with a note on the proposition to revise income tax and the wage freeze. Mr Speaker, I have requested the Clerk to circulate a Table to Members of the House so that they will be able to follow the argument which I am putting forward. [Copies of table distributed to hon. Members]. Each time there is an income tax revision, the ideological basis for the change is to favour the professionals. It will encourage them to work harder, says successive Ministers for Finance. It is equivalent to saying that the working class does not need to work harder and they ought to carry a greater share of the tax burden. The professionals, doctors, architects, lawyers, brokers and bankers do not need to be urged to work harder. They are already the highest income earners, as has been pointed out in this House and they have amassed fortunes. For the working class families to survive these days they need at least two members to work. The professionals need not do so. The revision of income tax for Year of Assessment 1987 is regressive. It brings out inequities. The weight of the tax burden is shifted to the lower and middle income groups. I shall not go through the entire list of groups who are subject to income tax, except to pick out two groups - those whose chargeable incomes vary from $5,000 to $25,000and the other group whose chargeable incomes vary from $100,000 to $400,000. For the group whose chargeable income is $5,000 to $25,000, the savings in tax vary from $32 to $494, ie, 0.64% to 1.98% of chargeable income. For the professionals who are already very highly paid and whose chargeable incomes are from $100,000 to $400,000, their tax savings are $4,144 to $21,644 ie, 4.14% to 5.41% of chargeable income. The reduction in income tax will not offset a wage freeze for two years, as recommended by the Government. The wage freeze is really being paid for by the Government through a loss in income tax collection but that will be recouped through a future broader based consumption tax. A saving of $32 to $494 in income tax is equivalent to a tax- free wage rise of $2.67 to $41.17 per month. For the higher income bracket, it is equivalent to $345 to $1,803 per month. So where is the wage freeze? As it can be seen it is the lower income group that is bearing the wage freeze, not the professionals. I would, at this stage, urge a 5% reduction in the employee's contribution to the CPF. This will mean a 6% increase in take home pay without any additional increase in the wage bill and without the Government suffering any losses in tax collection. You do not need 6% of the CPF locked in Medisave in these difficult times. The alternative for the lower income group is to go to the pawnshops. And all the statistical data we have shown that pawnshops are running out of capital because they are too prosperous. Households have lost income through retrenchment or pay cuts of some members of the family. Take home pay becomes important as bills have to be paid, marketing has still to be done, and bus or taxi fares have to be paid in cash. Hopefully, the continuing fall in the price of oil will also mean that there will be no great increase in the cost of living and the Consumer Price Index will not exceed 1% to 2%. Even if this is so, it will not be easy for low income families that have growing children or families that have additions to cope with a wage freeze and a consumption tax. The Budget is seen as no more than a holding position for this year and the next, until the Government can thoroughly digest the input it has received through the different Economic Sub-committees. May I end with a note of thanks to the Minister for Finance that this year's Economic Survey has been more readable than in past years, and that by incorporating two reports into one, the Budget has been more easily understood than previous year. Thank you. 3.20 pm