We have managed to achieve growth that is higher than the 4 to 6% that our indigenous factor endowments, namely, land and labour, and productivity can support. We will strive to continue to grow at high rates for as long as it is sustainable. There are five ways in which this can be done. We can increase our workforce, we can increase our productivity, we must remain competitive, we should tap into regional and world growth and finally, we should enhance the prosperity of our neighbours. A. Increasing the Workforce As we move into the 1990s, we will continue to grapple with the evergreen concern of how to manage and optimise the use of our scarce human resources. Our labour force growth of 1 to 2% constrains the growth opportunities available to us. The labour shortage problem, which was in abeyance during the recession, has returned. The unemployment rate in June 1989 was a record low of 2.2%. One way to boost the local labour force is to admit foreign workers. Out of the 68,000 jobs created in 1989, half went to foreign workers, mainly in the construction and manufacturing industries. However, because the labour shortage has spread to all parts of the economy, employers in the non-approved sectors have clamoured for relaxation of the foreign worker policy. In recognition of their needs, especially those of the smaller local companies, Government has decided to extend, gradually, the admission of a controlled and revolving pool of foreign workers into the hitherto non-approved sectors. The intention is eventually to allow the market to determine where foreign workers should go to maximize their contributions to the economy. Sectors which have higher value-added will then get foreign workers ahead of those with lower value-added. The Minister for Labour will be announcing details of the proposed changes next week. We will try to absorb as many of the foreign workers as possible who are skilled and can be assimilated into our society. However, the Government is mindful that the presence of a large pool of unskilled foreign workers may obscure the comparative advantage of Singapore and hinder our efforts to move into higher value-added activities. We do not wish to grow faster merely by importing foreign workers to drive down wages. We also want to ensure that the local workforce share of our GDP is not eroded. We want to grow at a pace that can give our people challenging jobs at good wage rates. To contain the demand for foreign workers and quicken the pace of automation and upgrading, the foreign workers levy is used to increase the cost of employing foreign workers. The foreign workers levy was raised by $30 to $280 in February and will rise by another $20 to $300 in August. The levy will be further adjusted, as and when necessary, to control the level of demand for foreign workers. B. Increasing Productivity To sustain future wage increases and a higher standard of living for Singaporeans, we have to constantly upgrade our skills and productivity. We must therefore not only continually upgrade existing industries, but also seek to attract new investments that bring in higher value-added activities. Over the last decade, we have moved from labour-intensive activities to knowledge-intensive and high-technology industries and services to sustain higher wages and a higher standard of living commensurate with better skills and productivity. In recent years, the quality of our investments has improved. They now encompass high-value manufacturing activities like automated production, research and development, product design, and export-oriented services like regional software or computer centres and regional management centres. These investments are not only big per se, but are world-scale. The projects are highly automated, employ highly skilled persons, and capitalise on our strategic location to produce a sizeable share of the world's supply to serve international markets. C. Staying Competitive A major lesson the Government has learnt from the 1985 recession is the need to remain competitive. We monitor very carefully the developments around the region, particularly those within the countries of our main competitors, and the effect of any fiscal measures on competitiveness. Our fellow Asian Newly Industrialising Countries (NICs), namely, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, have continued to record strong export growth, of around 20% annually for the past 5 years. Hong Kong and South Korea have continued to perform well despite domestic problems. Over the same period, exports from Thailand and Malaysia grew at impressive annual rates of 25% and 15% respectively. Thailand and Malaysia are quickly emerging as competitors to Singapore and the other NICs. Increasingly, the exports of these two countries are overlapping with Singapore's exports. Compared to the other NICs, Singapore's cost structure is still competitive. Our unit labour costs in manufacturing have been declining, relative to unit labour costs in the other NICs (see Chart 1) (Cols. 45 - 46). However, that is due more to steeply rising wages in the other NICs than to low wages in Singapore. The share of GDP going to wages increased from 40% in 1988 to 41% in 1989. Correspondingly, the share of GDP going to profits declined, from 60 to 59% (This is shown in Chart 2) (Cols. 47 - 48). This is a turnaround after 3 years of continuous decline. In the tight labour market, which recorded a record low unemployment rate of 2.2% in June, wages rose faster than productivity last year. We should be cautious about allowing this to continue. Charts 1 & 2 - SINGAPORE'S RELATIVE UNIT LABOUR COST AGAINST THE OTHER NICs IN MANUFACTURING, NOMINAL GDP - WAGES & PROFITS (Cols. 45 - 48) What matters to companies is not just labour costs, but overall costs of doing business here. The Ministry of Trade and Industry computes an index of Unit Business Cost of our manufacturing sector and this is shown in Chart 3 (Cols. 49 - 50). Taking 1983 as the base year, when the index was 100, the Unit Business Cost reached a peak of 104 during the 1985 recession. After the Government implemented the cost cutting measures recommended by the Economic Committee, it declined to 88 in 1987. In 1988, the Unit Business Cost began to pick up again. In 1989 it reached 95, still slightly below the level in 1981 when costs were not yet a problem. Chart 3 - UNIT BUSINESS COST INDEX OF MANUFACTURING, 1980-1989 OVERALL (Cols. 49 - 50) This means that despite our higher wages, we are still competitive. There is no immediate danger of our pricing ourselves out of the market again. However, businesses and Government will need to watch our wages and business costs carefully, to ensure that we do not overshoot again in a general euphoria at the tail end of an economic expansion. The Government recently announced that depending on the economic performance in the first quarter, the employers' CPF contribution rate will be raised by up to 3 percentage points to 18% and the employees' contribution rate will be lowered by up to 1 percentage point to 22% in July this year. These are progressive adjustments towards the long-term rate of 40% with equal contribution from the employer and the employee. The Government has calculated the impact of the proposed CPF changes and increases in foreign worker levy on overall business costs. The effect should be small - just over 1 percentage point increase in Unit Business Cost. This should not affect our competitive position significantly. The Government will restore CPF savings to workers who made sacrifices during the recession. But it will not do so in a way that damages our competitive position. D. Tapping Regional and World Growth International Linkages Another source of domestic growth is to tap upon regional and global growth. As Singapore is neither a major producer or consumer of any particular commodity, it has prospered on entrepot activities by creating a conducive business environment supported by an open-door policy on trade and an efficient ancillary industrial and commercial infrastructure. While our entrepot activities in the early days of our industrialisation were mainly in raw materials and finished commodities, they now encompass raw industrial and other intermediate inputs as well. Many multi-national corporations, both local and overseas, are distributing their activities to other regional economies besides Singapore, to capitalise on the differences in comparative advantages. Singapore is competitive in its communication links and business infrastructure as well as being situated in a strategic geographical location and possessing a highly skilled and educated workforce. We can tap onto the growth not only in the South-East Asian region but in the Asia-Pacific region as well, in the same way that London and New York support their respective geographical regions and time zones. In the area of trade, the Government in 1989 introduced the Approved Oil Trader (AOT) Scheme under which concessionary tax rates were given to approved oil traders. The AOT Scheme has enhanced our business environment for international oil trading and encouraged companies to site their trading operations in Singapore. It has also generated significant spin-offs for Singapore. For example, S$21 billion worth of trade-related financing have already been committed over the next 5 years. In the services sector, we have the Operational Headquarters (OHQ) scheme where headquarter services provided to related overseas companies from Singapore are given special tax concessions. Times Publishing became the first local MNC to be given OHQ status for providing management and support services to its subsidiaries abroad. Our efficient air and sea transport infrastructure and telecommunications links are key factors why many MNCs are using Singapore as a major transhipment and distribution hub to markets in Europe and North America. They need to be continually upgraded to ensure that they remain state-of-the-art and competitive. In 1989, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore granted British air carriers the rights to base a portion of their fleet in Singapore to fly to different parts of the region. SIA also tied up with Delta Airlines and Swissair to create the world's first global aviation network. This air traffic hubbing privileges and tie-ups will generate multiplier benefits for Singapore by expanding tourism and through its impact on other related sectors. The Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) is aiming to make Singapore a total maritime centre. The 3 PSA Distriparks at Pasir Panjang, Alexandra and Keppel provide complete warehousing amenities like storage, distribution, packing, labelling, sorting and grading for the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. PSA has introduced Portnet which is an electronic data interchange for port documentation and communication between port users and the port. PSA has also developed Teleport links with other major ports like Hong Kong and Bremen in West Germany. Telecommunications links with commercial centres around the world are vital for time-sensitive business transactions. Singapore's telecommunications facilities and infrastructure have to keep up with technology. For example, Tradenet has linked up with the US-based Infonet, an international electronic data interchange service and product company, to exchange formatted trade documents which will speed up processing. The Trade Development Board's Globalink, which is currently being tested with 100 companies, is an on-line computerised system to disseminate global trade information for traders. It is expected to be ready for subscription in early 1990. We have also established international linkages in the services industry. One example from the service industry is Abacus Distribution Systems Pte Ltd which is the first computer reservation system formed by a consortium of Asian airlines for international air-ticket reservation, and will be the largest computer centre in Singapore. Similarly, the fastest growth in the financial sector has come from the treasury and foreign exchange activities of banks which have global networks to enable them to serve regional and international markets. For Singapore to continue to grow, local companies have to expand overseas to overcome the constraints of a small local market and get access to new markets, resources and technologies. The Economic Development Board has set up a strategic business unit to assist forward-looking local enterprises to go international through direct investment overseas or through the establishment of global business linkages. It is gratifying to note that our local companies have responded positively, especially the larger ones. The growth of our larger local companies will generate additional business opportunities for many smaller ones. These smaller companies must also learn to survive in an increasingly competitive international environment. The Government will continue to provide financial and developmental assistance to small and medium enterprises to help them upgrade their operations. Industrial and Commercial Infrastructure We have managed to attract many investment projects because we have the ancillary industrial and commercial infrastructure to support large sophisticated investments serving the international market. Investors search worldwide for locations to site their plant or offices. Many countries will be only too pleased to host them and to attract them with investment incentives. If we wish to continue to attract investments in the face of stiff international competition, we must continue to provide for infrastructure ahead of demand and to cater to changes in the demand for facilities arising from the changing business environment. In particular, there is a new class of business that is no longer conveniently classified as production, manufacturing or commercial activities. Regional data processing centres are one example. They are not typical commercial operations which can be sited in city centres to compete with retail or commercial offices. Neither can they be sited in industrial estates alongside traditional factories. To meet the needs of such businesses, a new class of land use has to be created to provide for "business parks" just as Science Parks were created to meet the needs of those who do research and development work. Such parks will provide integrated facilities with adaptable buildings capable of incorporating state-of-the-art telecommunication facilities in a well-planned park environment. A varying mix of research and development, product design, production, marketing, distribution and servicing uses, covering the full spectrum of modern business, will be allowed within such parks to meet the specific needs of each clients in the park. The Government has endorsed this concept and the Ministry of National Development is proceeding with the development of planning guidelines for business parks. The first business parks will be developed in the Jurong East, Tampines and Rochester Park area. Seletar aerodrome is being considered as a possible aviation business park and other sites are under active consideration for development of a maritime business park for comprehensive shipping and maritime activities. At the same time, the Jurong Town Corporation is continuing to upgrade the design and quality of new and existing factories and to develop industrial parks to meet changing needs. This process illustrates the need for us to constantly anticipate new needs created by the demands of businesses on our infrastructure. It applies to all areas of our economic activities. E. Enhancing the Prosperity of Our Neighbours Globally, the prospects of peaceful co-existence have never been higher since World War II. More and more, the pre-occupation of most nations will be to increase the share of their economic pie. We believe that economic growth is synergistic and not a zero-sum game. Regional and world growth depends much on freedom of trade and economic linkages among economies. Although domestic realities like fiscal imbalances and problems of structural adjustments may sometimes put pressure on governments to consider restrictive trade practices to protect domestic producers, we will continue to be outward-oriented and work with like-minded countries within international and regional forums to advance the cause of free trade. We are constantly forging more direct and deeper economic links with economies around the world. On a regional basis, Singapore's prosperity depends on the prosperity of her neighbours and vice versa. We should allow our growth to spill over into our neighbouring economies so that the region can become more closely integrated economically and together we can become a strong centre of growth. A nearby example of such complementary development is the economic ties between Hong Kong and China. Singapore, being earlier down the road of economic development, can be a catalyst in helping the region to grow. For example, we are encouraging global companies which set up operational headquarters in Singapore to distribute production and other labour intensive activities to our neighbouring countries. Our neighbours, who have a comparative advantage in terms of abundance of land and labour, will be able to provide these inputs more competitively. Our neighbours, especially our closest neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia, have recognised the value of integrated economic development and growth, and are actively pursuing appropriate investment strategies. We have also encouraged our Singaporean entrepreneurs to seek out opportunities offered by our neighbours. For example, the Indonesian government recently supported the Sembawang Group's acquisition of a second ship-repair yard in Dumai. The Sembawang Group will also be developing an industrial park alongside the yard where Singapore investors can relocate labour-intensive industries. Joint committees have been set up to further enhance economic links and to promote cross border investments with our immediate neighbours. There is a Johore-Singapore Committee on Business Co-operation between private sector businessmen of the two states. Similarly, a Joint Committee on Batam has been set up. Local and foreign MNCs have been encouraged to work with these committees to expand into the region.