CUSHIONING THE IMPACT OF THE DOWNTURN - (Statement by the Minister for Trade and Industry)
Mr Speaker, Sir, as I said in Parliament on 11th July, the global economy has deteriorated much faster than anticipated. Growth in the US, Japan and EU has slowed sharply. Strong growth during the boom years, especially in the US, led many companies to ramp up production capacity, expecting demand to continue growing. When demand slowed, partly because of the NASDAQ crash, they were caught off-guard, forcing them to cut production and reduce cost. The simultaneous downturns in the US, the EU and Japan now feed negatively into each other. The global electronics downturn has worsened even more dramatically in the last few months. Worldwide semiconductor sales declined by 24% in May 2001. Global semiconductor sales are expected to fall by 25-30% this year, down sharply from +37% growth last year. The global DRAM industry is expected to plunge by an unprecedented 55% this year, down from +37% last year. The electronics industry is expected to remain weak at least till the end of 2001. . Malaysia is also slowing down, compounding the problems that we face. In Indonesia, political uncertainty has made economic recovery even more difficult but we hope that under President Megawati's leadership, the situation there will improve. Singapore's Economic Performance We cannot have a worse alignment of the planets. As a result of the weaker external environment, the Singapore economy deteriorated further in the second quarter. Annualised quarter-on-quarter growth was -10.1% compared with -10.9% in the first quarter. On a year-on-year basis, Singapore's economy slowed sharply to -0.8% in the second quarter from +4.6% and +11.0% growth in the previous two quarters. The slowdown was across all the major sectors, particularly manufacturing where output fell by 11% in May, due largely to the 20% plunge in the electronics industry. Our export performance has also worsened, in line with weaker export markets. Non-oil domestic exports fell by 16.9% in June and 9.4% in the second quarter of this year. The labour market is also showing weakness. Retrenchments rose in the first quarter, reflecting the downturn in the global electronics cycle and weaker US growth. We expect it to increase as companies start shedding workers. Several MNCs like Maxtor and Aiwa have already announced job cuts. Many have also moved to a shorter workweek. In view of the sharp deterioration in economic conditions, we have revised the 2001 growth forecast down to 0.5-1.5 % this year. Measures to Cushion Impact of the Downturn Despite almost 10% growth last year, many businesses, especially the smaller ones, have not recovered from the effects of the regional crisis in 1998. We therefore left in place some of the measures introduced in the last package. In this year's Budget, we have reduced corporate and property tax rates to help companies, especially SMEs. To help households and workers, the income tax rates have been lowered. In addition to CPF top-ups, the Government has also granted rebates on personal taxes, service and conservancy charges and rentals. A new "Utilities Save" scheme was introduced to help households pay higher electricity and water bills. To cushion the effects of the current downturn, the Government has put together a package of additional measures which I will now announce. They are classified into three categories: namely, measures to accelerate the building of economic and social infrastructure; cost-cutting measures to help companies; and measures to help those retrenched and to promote worker retraining. Further details will be given by the respective agencies over the next few days. Economic and Social Infrastructure Given the open nature of our economy, it is difficult to stimulate the economy by generating domestic demand through Government pump-priming. However, there are some projects which the Government can bring forward. Accelerating the building of our economic and social infrastructure will let us take advantage of low tender prices, and will enhance our capabilities over the long-term. Some of these projects include the development of Jurong Island, drainage and sewerage works, road and commuter facilities, and upgrading of IT projects at polytechnics and universities. In total, bringing forward these projects will inject $204 million into the economy in this financial year and $512 million in the next financial year. Cost-Cutting Measures Labour Cost Labour cost is a key component of total business cost. In difficult times, adjusting wages is an important way to save jobs and prevent companies from going under. The Government and the unions have therefore been pushing for flexible wages. We have made good progress in building up the variable wage component over the years, although there is still some way to go. So far, about 30% of unionised companies but only 2.4% of non-unionised companies have implemented a monthly variable component. In this current economic downturn, the variable component that we have built up provides our first buffer. It is far better to cut back on bonuses and perks than to retrench workers. Companies which are not doing well should use this mechanism to pay smaller variable bonuses this year, in line with the NWC recommendations. Adjusting the CPF contribution rates is a measure of last resort and should never be done lightly. In the 1998 package, the Government cut the employers' CPF contribution by 10 percentage points to help companies reduce costs and to save jobs. It was progressively restored by six percentage points as the economy recovered in the last two years. The Government would like to restore the remaining four percentage points as soon as possible because the CPF is essentially our retirement savings plan. Keeping the CPF contribution rates below the 20% level for too long will mean less savings for our old age. Under normal circumstances, we would have restored a further increment of employer CPF contributions at the end of this year. However, in the present difficult conditions, the first priority is to save jobs by helping companies to lower costs. The Government has therefore decided not to increase the employer CPF contribution rate at the end of this year. We will review the situation again in the middle of next year. This gives certainty to the first half of next year and translates to a saving of $920 million for employers for the first six months of next year. Some businessmen have suggested to MTI that the CPF should be cut again. We do not believe that such a major move is justified at this stage. However, if the global economy continues to deteriorate, we may have to consider all possibilities. Foreign Worker Levy To hold down business costs further, the Ministry of Manpower will extend the current reduced foreign worker levy rates for another year till June 2002. This will cost the Government revenue of $324 million. Existing controls on the intake of Work Permit holders remain unchanged to ensure that employers do not become over-reliant on foreign workers, especially the lower skilled foreigners. Property Tax Rebate In the last Budget Statement, the Minister for Finance announced a cut in the property tax rate from 12% to 10% for all commercial, industrial and residential properties. That reduction was to take effect from 1st July this year, when the 25% property tax rebate for commercial and industrial properties ended. The Ministry of Finance has now decided to extend the 25% property tax rebate for commercial and industrial properties for a year from 1st July this year to 30th June next year. As the property tax has been reduced from 12% to 10% on 1st July this year, the effective rate during this period would thus be 7.5% as compared to 9% before this. This will cost the Government $257 million. Rental Rebate In January this year, JTC and HDB withdrew part of the rebates given in the 1998 package of measures. In view of the current downturn, we have decided to extend the rental rebates for another year till end June next year and to increase the quantum of rebates. JTC will grant an additional 10% rental rebate, giving an effective rebate of up to 20%. HDB will give an additional 5% rebate on top of the existing 5% (and another rebate of up to 20% for those paying above market rates) and this will extend for a year. Similarly, CAAS will offer a 15% basic rental rebate for warehouse, office and concession space in the Airport for a year till the end of June next year. It will also not increase the airport service charge. HDB, JTC and CAAS will also pass on the savings from the reduction in the property tax rate to their tenants. Other landlords are encouraged to similarly pass on the reduction in property taxes to their tenants. For market and hawker stallholders, the Ministry of the Environment, HDB and JTC will be giving a 10% rental rebate to their stallholders who are paying market rent. An additional rental rebate of up to 20% will be given if the rebated rent is still higher than the prevailing market rent. All these rental rebates will take effect from 1st July 2001 for a year and they will cost the Government $272 million. Transport Cost To soften the impact on regional trade and travel, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore will give 20% port dues concession for container ships and commercial harbour craft. This will save businesses $7 million for the period 1st July this year to 30th June next year. Access to Finance Some companies face greater difficulties gaining access to capital for their businesses during this downturn as banks become more cautious. To help local companies, the Singapore Productivity and Standards Board (PSB) will raise the Government's risk sharing of the Local Enterprise Finance Scheme (LEFS) from 50% to 70% for one year from 1st August 2001. In anticipation of the increased demand, we will increase the loan availability under LEFS by $60 million. PSB is also working on a new programme to make it more flexible for banks to lend to SMEs with varying credit risks by covering part of the risk through a loan insurance scheme. To help medium-sized companies, the coverage of LEFS will also be expanded to cover enterprises with at least 30% local equity, with fixed asset investment of up to $50 million and employment size of not more than 300 workers for service companies. This is significantly higher than the current limit of $15 million in terms of fixed asset investment and 200 workers for service companies. A loan line of $60 million will be set aside for this purpose. Together with the additional $60 million mentioned earlier, the total loan availability under LEFS will be raised by $120 million from $600 million now to $720 million. Additional grants will also be set aside under the Enhanced Local Enterprise Technical Assistance Scheme (LETAS) to enhance specific programmes which help local companies strengthen their capital structure, trim cost, improve cashflow and streamline operation. All these measures are for a period of one year. Besides the additional loan line of $120 million, these measures are expected to cost the Government an additional $10 million. Measures to Help the Unemployed and Promote Worker Retraining Retrenchments are expected to reach 20,000 this year. Older workers and less educated workers are more vulnerable to retrenchment in a downturn, and Members raised their concern in this House earlier on at Question Time. Many of them face difficulty getting re-employed. To help the retrenched workers, and particularly those in the vulnerable groups, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) is expanding its employment assistance and training programmes in a major way. Increased Efforts in Job Matching In the area of job matching, MOM currently operates a career centre. The centre provides information on labour market trends, advice on job and training opportunities, and employment assistance. Because of the economic downturn, the centre has served twice the number of users in recent months. To reach out to even more workers, MOM will further expand the centre's services and increase the number of access points to these services. It will work with NTUC, self-help groups and other community organisations to make available similar services and information at their locations. MOM has also put in more services on the Internet and expanded its Employment Town website. From next month, MOM will also be starting a series of community based job fairs to bring together job seekers and employers. And it is targeting to organise an average of one job fair per month for the rest of the year. `People For Jobs' Traineeship Programme Many retrenched workers will find that the jobs which they are used to will no longer be available in Singapore even after the economy recovers. This is especially so for older and less educated workers previously engaged in the manufacturing sector. To stay employed, some of them will have to switch to other industries, particularly those in the services sector. Making this change requires openness and flexibility on the part of both workers and employers. Workers will have to make some adjustments and accept different job requirements and work environments. Employers on their part should be more prepared to hire such mid-career workers who are good workers but newcomers to the industry and to help ease them into their new jobs. To help older workers with low education make this adjustment, MOM is piloting a new programme called the "People for Jobs" Traineeship Programme. The programme is akin to an apprentice programme for mid-career workers. Under the programme, MOM will provide financial support of up to $3.80 per hour or $600 per month for three months for companies which employ these retrenched workers, and who agree to put in place a mentorship or traineeship arrangement to help settle in these workers. MOM has found several employers who are prepared to take part in the pilot programme. Together, they are able to provide immediately 400 places in the services sector. And these include jobs such as sales and retail assistants, room stewards, telephone operators and housekeepers. MOM hopes to expand this programme rapidly and to increase the number of traineeship places. Expansion of Skills Redevelopment Programme (SRP) In the area of skills training, MOM and NTUC operate the SRP to help lower educated workers acquire certifiable skills. Through the SRP, some 54,000 workers have equipped themselves with relevant skills to stay employable. In view of the economic downturn, MOM will further enhance the programme. The list of approved courses will also be significantly expanded to benefit more workers and employers. And we hope to double the number of SRP trainees this year from 20,000 to 40,000 workers. This will cost an additional $28 million. And should there be greater demand, MOM is ready to expand the programme further. Incentives for Employers For workers sponsored by employers, SDF funds up to 80% of the course fees incurred for workers less than 40 years old. For workers aged 40 and above, SDF funds up to 100% of the course fees. Currently, many employers sending workers for SRP training have to pay the full fees first and claim for reimbursement only after completion of the courses. With the business downturn, many employers may not be in a position to come up with the cash upfront. MOM is therefore working out an arrangement with PSB and the training providers so that the employers only need to pay the net amount. Details will be announced once they are finalized. In addition to course fee support, absentee payroll support is also provided to employers to encourage them to send less skilled workers for training. From 1st August this year, the absentee payroll support will be increased from $5.10 to $5.40 per trainee hour for workers less than 40 years old, and from $6.15 to $6.50 per trainee hour for workers older than 40 years. We hope that this will encourage more employers to send their workers for training. According to NTUC, around 30,000 workers are already, or will be, on temporary layoff or shorter workweek. We should put this slack to good use. Companies that are facing low demand and have consequently implemented shorter workweeks and temporary layoffs should send their workers for SRP training. And during this period of training, workers will receive $3.80 per trainee hour or $600 per month as training allowance. Participating companies, which might otherwise have retrenched their workers, need not top up the training allowance. With these measures, we hope to persuade employers to use the business slowdown to upgrade the skills of their workers rather than quickly resorting to layoffs. By doing so, they will be more competitive and better prepared when the economy turns around. Help For Retrenched Workers Individuals on their own, including those who are unemployed, can also sign up for SRP through surrogate employers like the self-help groups and NTUC. The Government helps to pay for the course fees of these workers, while these surrogate employers provide additional support for low-income earners and those who are unemployed. Since 1999, 8,000 workers benefited from SRP training under the sponsorship of surrogate employers. To enable the surrogate employers to reach out to more workers, SDF will increase the course fee support given to them. From 1st August this year, SDF will increase its course fee support for trainees aged 40 and above under the surrogate employer scheme from 80% to 100%. In addition, for trainees below 40 years old, the Ministry of Manpower will provide a separate grant from the Lifelong Learning Endowment Fund to surrogate employers to offset part of their cost. These measures will help to encourage the self-help groups and NTUC to reach out to even more individuals. Unemployed workers who go for SRP training will improve their short and long-term re-employment prospects, but may have financial difficulties during the training period. To help them, the Government provides a training allowance. From 1st August this year, we will raise this training allowance from $3 per hour capped at $500 per month to $3.80 per hour capped at $600 per month, which is the same amount given to workers under employment who have taken time off for training. Enabling Skills for Less-Educated Workers A significant number of workers still lack basic skills that are increasingly required at the workplace. Together with its partners, the Ministry of Manpower has introduced two programmes: the National IT Literacy Programme and the community-based CREST programme to help these workers. The National IT Literacy Programme, jointly developed with IDA, aims to improve the employment prospect of all Singaporeans by equipping them with basic computer and Internet skills. The Ministry of Manpower will invest $8 million for the first year and another $19 million over the next two years to ensure that the training courses are kept affordable for all Singaporeans. The CREST programme, or Critical Enabling Skills Training, introduced by PSB in November 1998, aims to provide seven cores skills, such as `Learning-to-Learn', `Literacy' and `Problem Solving and Creativity' to enhance the employability of an individual worker. Presently, only workers sponsored by employers are given funding support through SDF for attending such training. With effect from October this year, the Lifelong Learning Endowment Fund will provide funding support through community self-help groups for individuals without employer support. These training and training support efforts will cost about $40 million over the next year. However, we should not see budget here as a constraint. We hope that the demand will grow, and the Government is prepared to spend as much as is needed to help more Singaporean workers stay employable. The key is to help them stay employable. The goal is easy to define but hard to achieve. We welcome more ideas on how our workers can be better prepared for global competition. The economic slowdown is also causing the retrenchment of executives and professionals. As they have skills, many of them will be able to find alternative employment, albeit at lower salaries. Despite the slowdown, the Government is continuing to recruit, for example, teachers and school administrators in the Ministry of Education, and senior officers to serve in many Ministries. The Government cannot become the employer of last resort, but it is on the lookout for good people to strengthen the Ministries and statutory boards. Professionals will also benefit from EDB's Training and Attachment Programme. EDB is stepping up its efforts to build capabilities in research and development (R&D), product and market development through this programme will be extended to training in local companies. Companies which face constraints in providing training in-house can work with our research institutes and research centres to host such training, fully funded by Government. This programme will help companies to continue training and building capabilities at a time when they are under pressure to cut back on these long-term activities. Conclusion In putting together this package, we are grateful for the suggestions made by many organisations and individuals, including members of the Committee on Singapore's Competitiveness, the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Singapore Confederation of Industries, the Real Estate Developers' Association and the Feedback Unit. The total cost impact of the measures announced in this off-Budget package is estimated at $2.2 billion over one year. This is equivalent to 1.4% of GDP. Though not as large as the package announced at the end of 1998 during the Asian financial crisis, it is a significant package. While the US economy is currently at a virtual standstill, there are some signs of improvement. There has been a pickup in the leading index, and consumer confidence has held firm in recent months. Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan sounded a cautious note of optimism in his recent testimony to the US House of Representatives. Although he still saw greater risks on the downside, he also saw signs of a bottoming out of the downturn. This package will help businesses cope with the crisis. It will also help workers, especially older and less-educated workers, to prepare themselves to retain their jobs or find new jobs. And it will supplement the measures announced in the Budget in February, especially the corporate and personal tax reductions, and the rebates to help lower-income households. However, we must be realistic. No package of Government spending can neutralise the global downturn, the electronics slump, or the regional problems which are the root causes of the slowdown. MTI will monitor closely the economic situation in the coming months. If the global situation worsens, we have the resources to do more, and will be ready to do so. Even as we navigate carefully through this difficult period, we can be confident of Singapore's future. Our medium and long-term prospects are good, provided we do not make major mistakes. The Singapore economy is fundamentally sound, and the confidence of MNCs and investors in our economy remains high. For example, even though foreign investments into the region have declined, Singapore continues to attract major investments from abroad. Major projects announced recently include a 12-inch wafer fab by Taiwan's UMC, a state-of-the-art TFT Liquid Crystal Display plant by Toshiba-Matsushita, a regional distribution centre by Daimler-Chrysler, and a pharmaceutical research centre by Eli Lilly. On the services side, leading B2B companies, eg, E2open and Converge, have set up their Asia-Pacific hubs in Singapore. Autodesk, an established US software company, has also set up its Asia-Pacific headquarters and its R&D operations here. Manufacturing investment commitments in the first half of this year totalled $5.9 billion, in terms of fixed assets, which is about two-thirds the $9 billion target for the whole of this year. So there is a reasonable chance that we will be able to achieve our target of $9 billion this year. When realised, these commitments are expected to generate $4.3 billion of value added and create about 8,700 jobs. Services commitments reached $800 million in terms of total business spending in the first half of the year, and are expected to generate $750 million in value added and 3,600 jobs when realised. In addition, our current negotiations on Free Trade Agreements with major economies will open new opportunities for our businesses and attract more FDIs into Singapore. Even though the present slowdown is largely cyclical, we must press on with the restructuring of the Singapore economy. Despite the dot.com crash, the New Economy is for real and we must make use of IT and e-commerce to raise productivity and add value. The entry of China into the WTO will put pressure on wages all over the world, especially at the lower end. Whether we like it or not, because of globalisation, we are competing with hundreds of millions of eager and hungry Chinese and Indian workers for the low-end jobs. We must therefore scramble up the value ladder quickly. And, to do this, we must liberalise and rationalise many sectors of the economy, for example, in banking, telecommu nications, and power generation and supply. As companies tighten their belts, they should try not to put off longer-term improvement plans. They should build up their capabilities and reposition themselves for the turnaround. Some companies will not be able to do this because of financial difficulties. For them, the cost-cutting measures will provide some help. Workers should take this opportunity to train and upgrade so that we can switch quickly to new and better jobs. The Government will do everything possible to attract investment, promote enterprise development and help our workers stay employable. We have weathered more serious economic crises before and, provided we respond cohesively and rationally, we have every reason to be confident of overcoming this downturn, and emerging more resilient and competitive than ever. Mr Speaker, Sir, may I have your permission to distribute a summary [Annex: Cols. 1953-4 - Summary of Cost Impact] of the cost-cutting measures to the House, please? ANNEX - SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT