Sir, thank you for allowing me to join in the debate on the transport fare revision. Many Members have spoken on the original Motion and the amendment as well. They spoke with deep feelings, reflecting the unhappiness amongst many Singaporeans over the recent fare revision. I fully understand and empathise with the sentiments expressed by the Members and by the general public as well. Like the other Members here, I too had to face unhappy constituents and community leaders. Sir, it is good to have the chance to thoroughly discuss this issue in the House. For Members to not voice the sentiments of the ground, especially when the unhappiness appears to be so widespread, would undermine our credibility as representatives of the people. The Members have raised many valid points and questions. But there were also many misconceptions. Some MPs, like Mr Ong Ah Heng and Mr Iswaran, have eloquently helped to enlighten the House, and I commend them. Sir, I would now like to present some of the pertinent facts and further clarify the various issues. By having the full facts and picture, we can then discuss the public transport policies in a rational and logical manner and arrive at the right conclusion. Sir, when I got the Motion, I thought I had better prepare myself and asked PTC for the full details on how they came to the decision. I shall start with the question on the need for the fare revision. Is it justified, and why now, and not six months' time, or even a year later, as some MPs have suggested? Let me first inform Members that what I have ascertained is that PTC does closely scrutinise the financial performance and the increase in operating costs of the public transport operators in the preceding year, when considering the fare increases for the current year. They also do take into consideration the state of the economy, how is it impacting on the people, especially the commuters who form the lower level of the social economic group, and they try to make sure that the interests of both are safeguarded. By looking at the actual facts, the PTC is then able to make a decision based on the performance of the previous year, and not on projections for the current year. Because, if the PTC were to base the fare increase for this year on what the public transport operators have projected as the increase in cost for this year, their figures will be very hard to answer for or justify. So PTC has taken the right approach. Let us scrutinise the cost increase of the previous year in order to consider whether or not to allow an increase this year. Sir, the PTC found that, in 2001, the operating costs of the operators had increased by 6.9% on average. The recent fare revision, as Members know, will increase the revenues of the bus companies by 2.3%. The revision will, therefore, only partially offset the increase in operating costs. I must also inform Members that costs had also gone up significantly in year 2000 by 8.5%. But because we were in recession last year, PTC decided not to allow an across-the-board increase to cater for that large increase in costs. It only allowed feeder bus services to increase the feeder fares by 10 cents. And this resulted in a general increase of 1% in the bus companies' revenues. Sir, this means that over the past two years, despite the economic downturn, costs for the transport operators had gone up by over 15%. But with this year's increase of 2.3%, total fares for the two years together would have gone up a total of only 3.3%. The PTC has, therefore, looked after the interests of the commuters very well by not allowing the PTOs to pass through to the commuters much of the impact of the cost increases. Wage Costs Sir, Members have asked - surely wage costs would have gone down? Based on the figures I have quoted, what has led to the increase in the costs? The PTC has explained that the main cost factors were, indeed, wage costs and service improvements. Public transport is very labour intensive, with manpower costs making up about half of the PTOs' total operating costs. In the year 2000, average wage costs for transport workers went up by 8.3%, partly because of the 2% CPF restoration. Mr Tan Soo Khoon had asked whether the PTOs exercised wage restraint last year, just like SIA. I am very happy to inform the House that, last year, the transport companies, workers and executives did indeed exercise wage restraint. As a result, wages last year went down by 3.4%. But because of the 4% CPF contribution restoration, this pushed the wage costs up by 0.6% for the bus companies. That meant that over the two-year period, wage costs for the PTOs went up about 9%. This is despite the downturn. Sir, some Members may be surprised by this. Let me now quote to Members the figures from the Ministry of Manpower. MOM's data shows that wage increases in Singapore averaged 6.6% in 2000, and 1.1% last year. Total increase for the two years was 7.7%. And if we include the 6% CPF restoration, total wages for the employers would have gone up by about 13.7%. Therefore, the PTOs, transport workers and executives have actually exercised wage restraint by holding the increase in wage costs to only 9%, well below the national average. Sir, we have heard from Mr Ong Ah Heng. We have also heard from Mr Ng Ser Miang. But I think Mr Ong Ah Heng's views should be well listened to, because he represents the workers and he knows what life is like for them. We must be fair to the transport workers. They have taken a wage restraint last year, but we cannot continue to deprive them of what other workers are enjoying. Otherwise, good workers will not want to work for the transport companies and, in the end, commuters will be worse off. And, as we have heard from Mr Ong Ah Heng and Mr Ng Ser Miang, the bus companies already have huge difficulties recruiting bus drivers. Today, even in the midst of the recovery, when we hear many people are looking for jobs, there are still 200 bus driver's jobs going a-begging. Service Improvements Sir, another key component of the cost increase is service improvements. The key service improvements are those that are made to meet requests from commuters for more frequent services, and new bus services to serve new HDB towns. Unfortunately, service improvements do not come cheap. As a guide, it costs the operators $500 per day to run an additional bus, and this amounts to $200,000 a year. So, each time we ask for the frequency to be increased, to add in more buses, each bus will cost the company $200,000 a year. If that additional bus leads to a higher ridership, that is all right. But, unfortunately, it is usually the same pool of people who take that service. So, the additional frequency may not lead to a comparable increase in revenue. What about the introduction of a new bus service? Sir, the PTC tells me that it costs $3.5 million a year for the bus companies to introduce a new service. Over the last two years, the PTOs had a net increase of seven new services. Productivity Improvements Sir, some Members have also pointed out that the PTOs should try to improve productivity rather than rely on fare revisions. After all, that is the common thing that every company does. When it is faced with a downturn, it will look for better ways to improve productivity. As Minister Mah and SMS Khaw had explained, we do expect the PTOs to do more to improve productivity, but we must also be realistic. The easy improvements have all been made: one-man operation in the earlier years; next, the bus companies went on to larger capacity buses. That helped to improve the productivity of the bus drivers. But there is a limit to how much bigger the buses can go. We have got double-decker; we cannot go triple-decker. So, there is a limit now to the easy increases in productivity. And the bus has only one driver. We cannot cut it down to half. Maybe one of these days, in the far future, we may have driverless buses, just like we have driverless trains. But that day is going to be very far in the future for us to even think about. So productivity is going to be a difficult challenge, but we will nonetheless push the bus companies to strive for it. Profitability Sir, another hot topic inside and outside the House, in fact, a very hot topic, is the profitability of the operators. Mr Iswaran had given us a good lecture, and I hope Members have heard clearly what he had said. Yes, the operators are profitable. Yes, they are making millions of dollars. Should the simple conclusion then be that since they are making plenty of money, they should not be allowed to increase fares? Some Members even go further, and argue that the PTOs are providing a public service and, therefore, they should not be profit-making. The question we need to ask is: are the companies indeed profiteering? Are the profits excessive or are they reasonable? And should we squeeze them until they are losing money and are on the verge of being commercially not viable before we allow them an increase? How would this enable them to provide a satisfactory level of service to the commuters? How would this serve the long-term interests of the commuters? Sir, let me again give Members some facts. Members will recall that the operating costs of the PTOs went up by 6.9% in 2001, while fares only went up by 1% last year. Consequently, the profit margins of the operators dropped significantly last year. The after tax profits of SBS Transit dropped from $51 million in 2000, to $40 million in 2001. TIBS fared badly, dropping from $8.4 million in 2000, to only $2.7 million last year. Similarly, SMRT, which did not enjoy a fare increase last year, saw its profits drop by almost half, from $111 million to $67 million last year. Yes, they are still profitable and are still making millions. ROTA But profits must be measured relative to the level of the investments needed. The figures are huge. SBS has total assets of over $500 million; TIBS has over $270 million; and SMRT, $1.4 billion, ie, $1,400 million worth of assets. Yesterday, we had a long lecture also from Mr Tan Soo Khoon on the return on equity (ROE) of SBS. ROE is really not a good measure of how effectively a company is using its assets. The better measurement is ROTA, or Return on Total Assets. ROTA is calculated by dividing the earnings before interest payments by their total assets. Of the three operators, SBS had the best ROTA, of 8.6 % last year. In comparison, TIBS had 2.9% ROTA, and SMRT, 4.8%. I think the financial analysts will tell us that the rate of return for SBS in 2001 is fairly healthy, but the rate of return for the combined SMRT/TIBS is on the low to very low side. In actual fact, the performance of the two bus companies would have been even lower, if not for two Government measures that we implemented in 1998. Let me go into these two measures. Road Tax Reduction The first is the vehicle tax rationalisation exercise. This was part of the Government's cost-cutting exercise. But it was also to offset the impact of the ERP on public buses. The road tax for buses was reduced from $5,500 to $1,600 for the single-decked buses, and to $2,000 for the double-decker buses. Arising from this, the two bus companies enjoyed a combined savings of some $13 million a year. SBS alone accounted for about $10 million of the savings. Extension of Bus Lifespan Sir, the second important measure was the extension of the statutory lifespan of buses from 12 to 15 years. This was again done in mid-1998. This means that for three years, from 1998 to mid-2001, the bus companies had a double benefit. First, they could continue using buses which would otherwise have to be disposed of. These buses are fully depreciated, ie, they could use assets which, in effect, were already free. Second, they were able to save the money which they would otherwise have to use to buy the new replacement buses. This means that they saved on the depreciation, plus they were able to earn interest on the money which they did not have to spend. To show Members the large amount of money involved, SBS spends about $80 million a year to replace its fleet of buses. In terms of savings on depreciation, and the interest earned on the money which they did not have to spend, it comes up to $10 million or thereabouts a year. And because this is additive, ie, every year another batch is saved, and they have the additional benefit from that batch saved. The savings alone for the third year, ie, in 2001, is about $25 million. So, just for the year 2001, they could save $25 million just on this measure. Sir, these two policy changes have helped enhance the profitability of the bus companies, not because of fare increases or productivity improvements. These two measures alone would have saved them a lot of money. In fact, one only has to look at their financial performance in 1997 to get a sense of how well the bus companies were doing without this assistance. In 1997, SBS only earned $21 million and had a ROTA of only 4.4%. Without the Government coming in, they were earning only 4.4% ROTA in 1997. TIBS made only $1.7 million, and had a ROTA of 2.3%. And that was after they had a big fare increase of 8.5% that year. If we look at those figures, I do not think, fundamentally, that the companies are really doing that well. Sir, what is more important for the public is that because of these two Government measures, we had helped to prevent a price hike in 1998. And in 1999, the bus companies were even able to pass to commuters the savings from the 10% CPF cut, which they did through a 5% fare rebate. Mr Tan Soo Khoon and Dr Tan Cheng Bock had asked about this. Yes, they did do their part. Sir, however, the impact of the lifespan extension began to diminish from mid-2001. That means, from then on, they would have to start replacing their buses, because the extended buses would have reached 15 years of age already. This means that this year, which is the full first year of impact, cost must go up quite significantly. As I mentioned just now, the impact of the lifespan extension is $10 million a year. Sir, the more fundamental question would be whether the transport operators, who are providing a public service, should even be making money. Sir, it is wrong to think that just because they are providing a public service, they should not be profit-oriented, because profit-oriented is not profiteering-oriented. We must remember that any operating entity, whether it is for profit or not-for-profit, must earn a reasonable return if it is to provide a satisfactory service to its customers. This is even more so for the transport industry, which is a very asset and capital-intensive industry. It needs to have enough revenues to cover operating costs, and to generate enough reserves to renew its operating assets. Luckily, the present PTOs are profit-making, so they have reserves. If they are not-for-profit operations today, the full impact of their cost increases over the last two years would have to be passed through in full to our commuters. Sir, some Members questioned why the PTC has to ensure the financial viability of the PTOs. After all, other companies are not guaranteed of viability. As Dr Wang Kai Yuen has rightly pointed out, this is because the public transport sector is a regulated sector, and we have to regulate it because there are only two operators. We, therefore, have to regulate them to prevent them from making excessive profits. Sir, these two are definitely not normal companies, in the sense of what Mr Inderjit Singh had talked about yesterday. Normal companies are able to set their own rates based on what the market can bear. When times are good, they can up their product price by 10%, 15% or 20%, whatever the market can bear. I am sure that if the PTOs have this freedom, fares today would be much higher, at least 50%, if not double. But because we regulate them from having excessive profits, the regulator also has the obligation to look after their commercial viability. Otherwise, who would want to invest in such a sector, or even lend money to them? Parliament recognised this in 1987, and that is why we charged the PTC with the responsibility to also ensure the viability of the operators. Sir, there seems to be some misunderstanding about the CPI + X formula which is used to regulate the operators. Some Members seem to be under the impression that because we have the formula, the fares are automatically given. The fare increases are not automatically given, and the PTC has been very careful about that. This is the formula that PTC uses to determine what is the maximum that they can approve for the fare revision, should the PTC decide that a fare revision is warranted. Some Members have asked what is "X". It seems to be a magic figure. Why is it 1.5%? Sir, "X" takes into consideration the manpower cost increases and productivity improvements. In deriving the wage increases, PTC took a look at the historical levels and tried to project forward in terms of what is the expectation for the future. PTC also took into consideration the point that the bus companies must achieve productivity improvements. So PTC discounted the amount of the salary increase factor that should be provided in the "X". That is how it arrived at a level of 1.5%. If you look at it, other than the last two years where, because of the recession, the wage increases have gone down, I think 1.5% is, in fact, a very conservative estimate of the impact of labour cost increases, taking into consideration productivity improvements. Sir, another point is whether the operators should even be profit-driven, ie, make profits but do not be profit-driven. Sir, as SMS Khaw Boon Wan had pointed out yesterday, it is good that the operators are profit-driven. This motivates them to innovate and to look for ways to improve productivity and, hopefully, that would flow down to the profits. Otherwise, if they are paid on a cost-recovery basis, there is really no need for them to crack their heads and do better. But while their job is to be profit-driven, the key that Members must remember is that we still have the PTC guarding the goalpost on behalf of the commuters. Timing of Fare Increase Sir, let me move on to the issue of timing. Questions have been asked why now, why not later? After all, we are just recovering from the recession. Members have admitted that there is never really a good time for a fare increase, let alone finding the best time. Even when the economic growth is strong, fare increases invariably attract tremendous amount of criticisms. We have established the PTC, and we have given it the responsibility to safeguard the interests of the commuters. In this, it has done very well. As I mentioned, it also has to be fair to the transport operators. We cannot have a situation of "heads I win, tails you lose". The key is to ensure that the PTC is able to study what has led to the cost increases faced by the operators, and whether these are valid factors. Have they made good efforts to improve productivity? And after satisfying itself that an increase is warranted, to proceed to allow an appropriate fare revision. And if the economy is weak, as the PTC has realised, to keep the fare increase to the bare minimum - again, in this case, it has done so. Sir, one of Mr Tan Soo Khoon's arguments against an increase now was that our economic recovery is still very shaky, and may not even hold. I think the economic data released by MTI this morning does give us something to cheer about -- not very much, but it is still something to cheer about. Our real GDP grew by 10.3% in the second quarter, and this compares very well against the first quarter growth of 8.4%. So 8.4% growth in the first quarter, 10.3% in the second quarter. Of course, we cannot guarantee that the rest of the year will be even better but, at least, at the present moment, the trend line is certainly looking good. And even if it holds at this level, we would have done well. Sir, some have argued that the timing is bad because of the high unemployment. I agree with that argument. Yes, many Singaporeans are unemployed and many have been retrenched, and others are fearing for their jobs today. Like all Members, I am concerned. But whilst we are concerned, we should look to see how we can actually focus our help towards those who really need help. Trying to help them with a blunt instrument, like holding the fare increase, is not going to help them very much. Let us look for real ways. This, indeed, is what the Government has been doing, together with the unions and the employers. There are many schemes available at the various levels. For example, the unions have been playing a very big part. They have been actively helping their retrenched workers to go for retraining and skills upgrading, so that they can get a new job. Hopefully with higher level skills, they can even get better paying jobs. For those who are having financial difficulties, the unions have also chipped in to provide some financial assistance. At the Government and community levels, there are also multiple schemes available. Some examples are the recently introduced Economic Downturn Relief Scheme (EDRS) and some old schemes like the Rent and Utilities Assistance Scheme (RUAS) and, of course, the good old Public Assistance (PA) for those who are genuinely unable to work. At the community level, there is a network of "Many Helping Hands". Many CCCs are providing financial help through their welfare funds. I know, because I monitor what we do in our GRC and the five MPs in our GRC do give up quite a fair bit of aid through our welfare fund. Even our PCF kindergartens are chipping in to waive, either in full or partially, kindergarten fees. And starting from 1st January next year, those facing financial hardship can also tap on the Economic Restructuring Shares (ERS). I think for a family of four, it would provide quite substantial help. So, it is better that we look at ways to help those who are directly in need, and do it in a meaningful and substantial way, so that they do not have to worry about the one or two cents that they have to pay for the bus fare increases. But while we have a lot of schemes to help the unemployed, how would this affect those who are employed? Would it be a big impact on them? Sir, to do that, we have to look in terms of how the fares have gone up for the last few years. As I mentioned just now, the fares have actually lagged behind salary increases. But if we look over the past 15 years, the increase in the cost of travel has lagged even further behind the national wage growth. Just now, Mr Ravindran asked for actual figures on how much the fares have actually gone up by. Salaries have gone up by 136% over the last 15 years. But how much have the fares actually gone up by? Sir, I will quote him the average bus ride of 8 kilometres. In 1987, an 8-kilometre bus ride cost 90 cents. Today, that same ride, with the recent increase, would cost $1.03, an increase of 14% over the past 15 years. If we look at the train ride, the train ride has gone up a little bit further, because 1987 was the start of the MRT system. The train ride has gone up 30%, from 80 cents to $1.04 today. I think Members would agree that these figures are very reasonable and well below the salary increases enjoyed by Singaporeans. Another point which Mr Iswaran brought up is that affordability is not just about percentage increases. Affordability is how much the families are paying as part of their family expenditure. And has it gone up today, or has it gone down? Sir, I have only two sets of figures, 1998 and 1988. In 1988, public transport formed 5.1% of household expenditures. In 1998, ten years later, it has not gone up. It has gone down to 4% of household expenditures. So the impact of public transport on the family pocket has actually diminished over the last 10 years. Sir, Dr Amy Khor stated that there is now a perception that the PTC has tilted fully in favour of the transport operators. Sir, she is totally wrong, and the ground perception is also totally wrong. The data has shown otherwise. On the contrary, Members and the public should be thanking the PTC for having protected the commuters so well. And I think we also should thank the transport operators for being productive and efficient and making the low fares possible. But some Members may ask, "How can we be sure that the fares are reasonable?" They may be affordable, but are they high compared to elsewhere? Are they reasonable? Sir, we can compare against, say, Hong Kong, which has a similar standard of living. The population is similar, except that they are double ours, and we all know in the public transport sector, economy of scale is important. Yesterday, Mr Tan Soo Khoon also brought up the example of the Kowloon Motor Bus Company (KMB). He quoted some figures and all that. Sir, let me go on to the Kowloon Motor Bus Company. KMB is bigger than SBS. KMB has a total of 3,700 buses compared to about 2,800- 2,900 in SBS. But, despite the advantages of a bigger population, a bigger bus fleet, I am glad to inform the House that our bus fares are still cheaper. Let me give Members some comparison. The fare for a 3 kilometre ride for KMB is 80 cents. This is in Singapore dollars, not Hong Kong dollars. This is almost 30% higher than our new starting fare of 63 cents. And this is the good part. For a 35 kilometre trip, which is our maximum, KMB charges S$3.05 cents per ride. Those of you who ride the bus will know that in Singapore, for that distance, our commuters only pay $1.53 cents, half the price of KMB. Sir, Mr Tan also touted the competitiveness of the PTOs in Hong Kong. He said that when the new MTR extension was opened, the MTR reduced prices to undercut the bus fares. And then KMB countered attack by also reducing prices, and offering free meals. I cannot remember. Is it KMB or is it MTR?