Mr Speaker, Sir, I would like to respond to some comments made by hon. Members of this House regarding the state of the Singapore economy, in particular, the statement by the Member for Alexandra in which he said that the Minister of State for Trade and Industry and I have taken perhaps an overly optimistic view, or armchair view, of the state of economy that we might have glossed over the real situation which, in his words, "is pretty bad". Now, I would like to clarify that when I and the Minister of State talked about the Singapore economy, we were talking about the economy as a whole, and not about any particular sector. I accept that in certain sectors, particularly the trade sector which is of primary interest to the Member for Alexandra, things are in fact fairly depressed. However, one must take these things in perspective when one looks at statistics, lest we talk ourselves into a blue funk. The economy as a whole is not doing badly. Certain sectors indeed are depressed. Overall, I would like to re-emphasize that the economy is not doing as well as last year but it still remains fundamentally sound. Perhaps we should examine some of the statistics in order that they can be looked at in perspective. Indeed it is true that last year we had redundancies of 4,694. In absolute terms, this does look like a pretty bad figure. But what does it actually mean? It represents less than 0.4% of the total employable population in Singapore. I know this statistic is not particularly helpful to those who have lost their jobs, particularly around Chinese New Year. Nevertheless, it is a fact that it is a small proportion of the total minimum employable level of around 2.7% in Singapore which is, in fact, the figure of 33,000. In the larger economies, full employment, in fact, means around 6% of irreducible minimum of employed. However, for the 4,000-odd people who have lost their jobs, indeed it is a problem as far as they are individually concerned. But let us not forget that we do indeed have a full employment economy in Singapore. These individuals ought to have found jobs within a reasonable period of time, provided they are not overly choosy. I also recognize, of course, that there are those who, because of age or because of lack of special skills, will find it takes longer to get replacement jobs. Indeed, it is this sector which the Government will do all it can to help. It is also said that in 1984, 429 companies failed, went bankrupt, or were wound up. This indeed could be looked at as a rather startling figure. But is it? Let us examine some figures in our neighbouring countries. In Hong Kong, last year 1,746 companies closed down for one reason or another. Their population is twice ours and so is their economy. So indeed they may be said to have done worse than we have. But, of course, one could argue that they were faced with political problems or that they might have more problems than we have. Let us look at Japan. Last year, 19,000 Japanese companies failed for one reason or another. In proportion to the size of the population, this would be about similar to the 400-odd in Singapore. In the United States, there were 12,776 failures. It is really a small number for the size of their economy. But again I would caution in looking at statistics. These figures are not really meaningful without knowing the size of the companies which have failed. So again I would urge caution. Again, in looking at statistics, one perhaps should look at the whole picture rather than part of it. In the case of Singapore, it is true that 429 companies failed. But it is also true that 4,600 new companies were formed. Again, I would caution. It does not mean that 4,600 new company formations is necessarily a very good thing because many of these companies may have been registered for $2 and may not be in operation for some time. Nevertheless, I merely quote this because statistics, looked in isolation, could convey indeed very wrong conclusions. In fact, a cynic has said that if one looks at statistics, there are things such as statistics and statistics and damn lies. Sir, I will reiterate again. Business confidence is a very fragile commodity. Therefore, we should not talk ourselves into a gloom and doom syndrome. Having said that, perhaps I should now divert to a look at the components of our economy, sector by sector, to see where the problem lies, and what can be done to alleviate those sectors which are depressed. Conveniently, the Singapore economy can be divided into five main sectors, each of which accounts for roughly 20% of our GDP. These are manufacturing, transport and communications, financial and business services, trade, construction, and others. Manufacturing. Overall, the manufacturing sector did not do too badly in 1984 but the outlook for 1985 is somewhat lower. In 1984, overall growth was about 9%. However, within this macro figure, there are certain sectors which are clearly depressed, the shipping sector, shipyards, timber companies, plywood factories, offshore oil and so on. On the other hand, the electronic and electrical component sector was very buoyant. And because of their buoyancy, many companies around the first, second to third quarters, in order to fulfil large orders from the United States, took on very large numbers of new workers. It was clear even then that such new additions to their employment could not be sustained, and indeed it turned out to be the case. Some of these companies now have to lay off some staff due to a levelling off of orders from the United States. Overall, we think next year the manufacturing sector ought to at least perform in the mid-range of our forecast, around 5% or perhaps 6% growth. The next sector is transport and communications. This sector did very well last year and I think we can expect it to continue to do reasonably well this year. Growth for last year was 10%. There was great demand for air and sea services, telecoms and telex services. We think this sector will continue to do quite well and therefore in the upper quartile of our forecast. The third sector is financial and business services. This sector did reasonably well last year where the growth was 11%. However, a lot of this growth took place in the offshore banking sector whereas the domestic banking sector slowed down somewhat due to reduced lendings into the depressed property market and into the trade and services area. Overall, it ought to do reasonably well next year, perhaps even in the upper range of our forecast. The next sector is construction and others. Construction accounts for about 60% of this sector. Others represent farming and the fisheries industry. Construction was very strong last year although down from the previous year. Growth was in the region of 15%. It is slowing down this year because of the decline in private sector construction. However, it still remains buoyant because of continued expectation of public sector construction and the MRT. Overall, again it ought to perform in the upper range of our forecast. Finally, I come to trade which is probably the most depressed area and which explains why the Member for Alexandra is concerned. Indeed, this sector is probably the worst performing sector. There are a variety of reasons behind this. First, the tourist sector within trade. I think everybody knows that growth in tourism has turned down, partly because hotel prices had priced itself out about a year or two ago and the tourists then went to Hong Kong because of our very high charges in hotel rates. The normal market mechanism due to the increase in the supply of hotels has in fact caused a substantial reduction in hotel charges and the outlook from the Singapore Tourist Promotion Board's figures look fairly encouraging. And we think there should be a reasonable upturn this year leading to somewhat better occupancy rates in the hotel industry but still remaining depressed because of large over supply. The property development area, we have said, although is under trade, is indirectly affected, of course. In the private trade business, the reduction in business is well known. I think it is partly due to a downturn of our trade with our neighbours who have, in fact, also suffered from a decline in world trade plus the decline in commodity prices, particularly Indonesia and also to a certain extent Malaysia. These are the factors affecting many of our small traders and they are the ones who I think are indeed suffering. Again, the other sector where there is obvious depression is the retail sector in shops which do retail trade. It was again evident about two years ago during the peak of the expansion of this sector where there was a proliferation of HDB shopping centres and private sector shopping centres. The growth in this sector could not be sustained. In fact, I remember walking through some of these shopping centres about a year or two ago and seeing these hundreds of shops all selling virtually the same things, clocks, watches, jeans, what have you. I think it was clear that this growth could not be sustained and some of these rather unfortunate companies which had set up business hoping to cash in on the tourist boom would have to retreat, and indeed it has. Again, although one could say this is normal economic development, it is very painful for those personally involved. This is recognized by the Ministry of Trade and Industry and we are not armchair scientists in this area. Sir, indeed we do recognize that there are soft spots in the economy and a lot of them due to circumstances either within their control or outside their control are going through difficult times. The Ministry is aware of this and we have examined this and indeed proposals are in hand to provide them with some form of relief. I would not go into these in detail because the Minister for Finance will be touching on some aspects of it in his Budget speech this afternoon. I would only recommend to the Member for Alexandra some patience since we only have about three-odd hours to wait. 11.42 am