MAIN AND DEVELOPMENT ESTIMATES OF SINGAPORE FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR - 1ST APRIL, 1990 TO 31ST MARCH, 1991
Sir, if I may just add a few supplementary remarks to what Mr Mah Bow Tan has said in order to set the issues in context. MTI's principal concern is to keep economic growth up so that there will be prosperity, jobs, and secure livelihoods and incomes for Singaporeans. The strategy for doing this was outlined in Part I of Dr Richard Hu's Budget speech, ie, to increase the workforce, raise productivity, stay competitive, tap into regional and world growth, build up our industrial and commercial infrastructure, and enhance the prosperity of our neighbours. Each of these is an important component of our strategy and we are progressing all of them in parallel. Overall, we have been reasonably successful. Many of the concerns which MPs have raised - increasing cost of doing business, shortage of hotel rooms, adjustment problems of SMEs, even to some extent, fears about inflation - are conse- quences of this economic success and have to be seen in perspective, namely, overall reasonable achievements, but individual issues have to be tackled. Take, business costs. Mr Bernard Chen pointed them out. So did several other MPs. There is no doubt that costs have gone up compared to earlier years. But the data do not show that they have shot up. As Dr Hu pointed out, the proportion of GDP going to wages has only gone up by one percentage point last year, from 40% to 41%, meaning correspondingly the percentage going to operating surplus, ie, gross profits, has gone down by one percentage point, from 60% to 59%. Of course, it is 59% of a considerably bigger GDP. So profits have increased, and at the same time workers' incomes as a proportion of GDP, have gone up slightly, but not alarmingly. The cost index in which MTI calculates increased in 1988 and in 1989. We started the index at 100 in 1983. In the recession, it rose to 104, up 4 points. Then it came down because of our cost-cutting measures and because the economy slowed down. It has now come back to 95, below the starting point. This shows that we are still competitive. Let us compare ourselves with the other NICs, because our relative competitiveness is important. Then in fact our cost levels look even better because Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have all experienced much more drastic increases in costs than Singapore - because of inflation, very high appreciation of currency, and very drastic wage rises. So we have to be careful about our cost levels, to make sure firstly that we do not add on piecemeal lots of little items which add up to a substantial and intolerable cost increase and, secondly that at the end of a boom, euphoria does not overcome employers and lead them to pay more generously than they can afford and end up with a hangover. I think we have to be careful, but I do not think there is yet any reason to panic or to cry wolf. Sir, the Government takes a lot of flak for taking measures which have impact on costs. But Government levies account for only part of the increase in total business costs. The larger part is due to labour, and to changes in market conditions unrelated to Government policies. For example, I have heard that nowadays the minimum price per table for a wedding dinner is $600. This may be high, but it is not something which the Government is able to control and, fortunately, in this case, it is not something which afflicts us every day. Similarly with hotel room prices or commercial space rentals. These are factors outside our control. Nevertheless, the Government is sensitive to the effects of its policies. While it cannot completely avoid policies which raise costs, it does try to take compensating measures in order to reduce their side effects. For example, one of the reasons why Dr Hu reduced the corporate tax rate this year by one percentage point to 31% was to offset the anticipated effect of the vehicle quota system on transportation costs. The Government recognises that hitherto commercial firms, companies and factories have been able to hire, to own and to use light goods vehicles, trucks, container vehicles at very low road taxes and vehicle taxes. But the quota will change this and add a couple of thousand dollars on to the capital cost of each such vehicle. Therefore, to offset this, we have reduced the corporate tax rate by one percentage point. I think it will more than offset the quota cost, at least for a couple of years. This illustrates the philosophy of the Government. Related to business costs is inflation. Inflation in Singapore has been low. I circulated a table (Cols. 885 - 886), to show how our inflation compares with other countries. We had 2.4% inflation last year. If you look at the first table, in the other countries in 1989, the US had 4.8%, EEC had 5%, Hong Kong had 10.1% and Korea had 5.7, and Taiwan, 4.4% - all higher than us, 2.4%. The only country lower than us was Japan, 2.3%. So our track record has not been bad. table - Inflation Rate of Other Countries, CPI Inflation Rate For Singapore (Cols. 885 - 886) Inflation is due to both domestic as well as external factors. External factors are the inflation rates in OECD countries which feed through to us because higher cost of raw materials, higher cost of imported products, higher oil prices. All these impinge on us immediately. If there is a drastic increase in the money supply in the developed countries, for example, if the West German Government decides to exchange East German marks for Deutsche marks one to one, and there are 80 billion dollars worth of East German marks queuing up to be exchanged, and all are converted into Deutsche marks which represent real purchasing power, as opposed to funny money, then 80 billion extra US dollars will be chasing a limited number of goods and services. This is bound to have an impact on money supply, interest rates, and inflation around the world, and therefore upon us. We can insulate ourselves somewhat, but we cannot totally cut off from such effects. Then there are internal factors which influence inflation - Government levies, and secondly, very importantly, wage increases which exceed productivity growth. MTI studies have found that such wage increases are a very major cause of inflation domestically. Because once people are paid more and spend more, when their spending power is not matched by producing power, this must feed through into higher prices for goods and services. If you look at last year's figure of 2.4% inflation, the breakdown is as follows: External inflation accounted for 0.5 percentage point. The balance of 1.9% was internal. Of which the Government accounted for less than half, 0.9 percentage points, and the private non-government factors accounted for 1.0 percentage point. So overall the Government only accounted for one-third of the inflation last year. I know that many Members are concerned that the inflation rates affect different population groups in Singapore differently. There is a special concern for the lower income groups who are least able to look after themselves when prices go up. For that reason, MTI has calculated a separate consumer price index specifically for the lower income group. The figures are given in Table 2, which shows the overall index, and then on the right hand side, the index for the lower income households, ie, those with household expenditure less than $1,000 per month. The figures show that every year the lower income households have experienced less inflation than other households. Starting in 1987, overall 1/2%, lower income households, 0.3%; 1988, overall, 1.5%, lower income, 1.2%; 1989, overall, 2.4%, lower income, 1.9%. There is a reason for this. The Government land transport policies, which have been so hotly debated in the House, affect the middle income and upper income groups much more than the lower income groups. While we make adjustments to road taxes, petrol taxes, vehicle taxes, ARF, and quotas every year, these only affect people who buy cars. Bus fares have not gone up since January 1982, which is a period of eight years. During this period, cumulatively, the general price level has gone up about 7%, wage levels have gone up 40% to 50%, but bus fares have remained constant. This shows that in fact, there has been a net transfer of income to the lower income groups. I cannot guarantee that we will never increase bus fares, but I think that gives you a feel of the impact. What should we do in order to control inflation? What can we do? First, we can moderate imported inflation through our exchange rate policy. If the Singapore dollar appreciates, then in Singapore dollar terms, prices of imported goods should go down and, therefore, if there is inflation overseas, we should be partially insulated. In this respect, the gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar has helped us. Of course, you cannot just push up the Singapore dollar in order to reduce inflation because if we are not productive, if we do not remain competitive when the Singapore dollar goes up, then our exports will fall and eventually our exchange rate is going to be affected. But, fortunately, hitherto, our exports have been strong, foreigner confidence in Singapore has been strong, inflows of funds have been substantial, the Singapore dollar has appreciated gradually, and so we have reaped a very desirable side effect, ie, lower imported inflation. That is one reason why our external inflation figure last year was only 0.5 percentage point. Secondly, we can encourage wage settlements to reflect the growth of productivity and the overall performance of the economy. Wage settlements which are wildly unrelated to performance are a strong domestic cause of inflation. It is so in developed countries, it is so in more closed economies, and it is also true in Singapore. This has been proven not just from first principles but through statistical analysis of previous trends of wages and inflation rates. Fortunately, in recent years, wage settlements have been reasonable, so we have not had to worry on this score. I trust that if things continue as they are, this will remain the case. Thirdly, we can encourage free competition. That prevents cartels and price fixing and what MPs have called "profiteering". For example rice. For many years, the Government controled the rice market. Who could trade in rice what rice could be imported, how much needed to be stocked? The objective was to hold down prices. But because we restricted the number of participants in the market, the number of companies allowed to import and sell rice, so prices were higher than was necessary. A few years ago MTI reviewed of this and decided to allow companies to come in and enter the business so long as they also observe our minimum stockpile requirements. In other words, you can join in, trade import and export. The only requirement is that you put aside two months' worth of imports of rice in the rice stockpile so that should there be any sudden shortage, we are buffered. This stockpile is stored in a Government warehouse so that there is no question the rice is actually there and it is actually in good condition. The new policy has helped in recent years to moderate rice prices when there have been from time to time shortages and price increases in Thailand and elsewhere. We also used to control the quality of rice which was imported. You could import full grain rice, rice which was more than 90% or 95% full grain, but we forbade imports of rice which was more broken than that. Again, it was for a good motive - to prevent Singaporean consumers from being diddled so that when they bought rice you could be sure it is good rice. But if you are going to make rice noodles, you do not need good rice because it is going to be ground up. Therefore, we also allowed people to import rice which was no more than 65% whole. In other words, very broken rice can be imported, very whole rice can be imported, but in-between grades were forbidden. It did not make a lot of sense. The market knew how to get around this because they imported the good rice and then they imported the broken rice, and mixed the two and they sold it. We have put a stop to this. I see no reason why we should employ rice inspectors to take samples, separate the good grains from the broken grains, count them and weigh them. It is a misuse of Government manpower. So we leave it to the market. When you buy shoes or clothes or any other types of food, you either buy a no-name product which is economical, or you buy a brand name product and get the guarantee of quality at a slightly higher price. Why should rice be different? If Members come across any other similar examples, I would be grateful if they would point them out and we will put it right in due course. The bottom line on inflation is that real wages have gone up significantly. The way to keep standards of living rising is to increase productivity and, therefore, keep up the demand for Singapore workers and allow employers competing for their services to bid up their wages. This brings me to wages. There has been some controversy over how much wages went up. Dr Hu said 10.1%. Mr Lim Boon Heng has pointed out that according to NTUC's survey, it is only about 6%, Dr Augustine Tan pointed out a minor discrepancy in the Government's statistics. They are all correct, especially Dr Hu. Let me explain. The figures of 10.1% increase of wages is based on CPF data and refers to real wages. It refers to the overall wage package, including overtime and year-end bonuses. It is not the base rate. It is also the average for the whole economy over all types of jobs. And because from year to year the types of jobs in the economy changes, that affects the total wage bill. In simple terms, when people enter the workforce as professionals, they get paid a certain amount. When they enter the workforce as workers, they earn a certain smaller amount. Let us say workers get paid $600, professionals get paid $1,500. Each year, the proportion of people joining the workforce as professionals goes up because younger people are joining the workforce better educated. Each year, amongst the older people who are retiring and leaving the workforce, the proportion of the unskilled is higher. Therefore, every year the workforce contains relatively more professionals and relatively fewer unskilled workers. And because the professionals are paid higher in the first place, even without any other wage increases and adjustments, the total wage bill and the average wage level will go up. Singaporeans are better off. It is a real effect. In addition, of course, worker wages go up, as Mr Lim Boon Heng has pointed out, about 6% in base wages. Professional wages go up also because professionals are in demand, plus their year-end bonuses and other perks. All these add up to 10.1%, in real terms. So we are, in fact, quite a lot better off this year than last year. Therefore, it is reasonable to put aside some of this increase in CPF. No doubt raising CPF adds to business costs somewhat. But it has to be done. The 15% CPF cut was a temporary one. To restore 5% of this cut over three years: 1% in 1988, 2% in 1989, and possibly another 2% this year, is a very mild and gradual adjustment which cannot be considered drastic. Certainly if you compare the CPF adjustment in these three years with the actual change in wage levels during these three years, about 10% per year, the CPF increase must be considered minimal. In fact, I think if we had not reduced the CPF by 15 percentage points but only by 10% back in 1986, the economy would still have rebounded. It might not have picked up as drastically as it had over the last few years, and it might have come back onto an even keel more gently. This is in retrospect, but at that time we thought it prudent to make a strong adjustment. In short, restoring 5 percentage points out of 15% cannot be taken exception. It is the least the Government can do to keep our side of the bargain with Singapore workers. Secondly, ample notice of each CPF adjustment was given, so that the amount could be factored into collective agreements and not be a cost item which is added on after the fact, after employers and employees have settled their collective agreements. Each time we announced it in November and we implemented it in July. There was ample time for this to be factored into calculations. The valid concern which I think should be borne in mind, is that if the economy slows down, and wages are still stuck at a high level, then profits are going to go down and get squeezed drastically, like last time, because wages are now 41% of GDP. If the GDP growth shrinks and wages do not correspondingly go down, then profits are going to be severely hit. This is why the Government has been encouraging companies to go for flexi-wage arrangements, and to avoid building in cost increases into the basic salaries. I think with strong growth and a tight labour market over the last two years, many companies have neglected this precaution. Between the companies and the unions, they have blithely decided just to pay additional flat amounts which will be difficult to unwind. I hesitate to repeat, to sound like Cassandra, but I think companies should be more careful. Certainly, the Government in its wage adjustment package last year had this very clearly in mind. I encourage all companies to do likewise. One last thing which the Government can do to moderate cost increases is to keep labour cost from shooting through the roof. We had moderated the labour market by making the best use of foreign labour. For skilled people, we have admitted as many as possible, because each one makes a contribution, and the more we have, the faster the economy will grow. For unskilled workers, we have already admitted many. As Mr Lee Yock Suan pointed out, we are trying to deploy them wherever they can be most productive in the economy. Because for a given total number, it is best for market forces to decide where they are needed, where their contribution is greatest, rather than for the Government to direct certain companies to be eligible for foreign workers and other companies not to be eligible. Who is to say a small and medium-enterprise is not fit to hire a worker if it is able to pay the him a good wage? Hence, the liberalisation of the work permit policy announced by the Minister for Labour. The ultimate objective is to control the total population of foreign workers by means of the levy, but to let the market decide where they should be deployed. We are not completely there yet, because if we simply lift the administrative restrictions and immediately treat everybody totally equally, we fear a sudden ballooning in the number of foreign workers, which will be difficult to control. But we are moving in this direction. Allowing the new sectors to hire foreign workers is an important first step. And as we adjust the foreign worker levy from year to year, we will take progressive steps to equalise the treatment. Ultimately, everybody will pay the same levy, follow the same rules and limits, and be able to have the same chance of hiring foreign workers.