ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURE FOR THE - FINANCIAL YEAR 1ST APRIL, 1995 TO 31ST MARCH, 1996
Sir, first, I would like to thank Members of the House for their views and comments. I would take the responses by subject rather than going through according to their order. First of all, I would like to discuss the road construction programme. Several Members have asked about the progress of the road construction programme, in particular, the underground road system and whether this will allow for more car ownership. Sir, first, let me explain that while we will build roads as much as we can in order to increase road capacity, we are running smack against our biggest problem, ie, land constraint. Building more roads, therefore, can only be part of the solution. Let me elaborate. Today, we have 310,000 cars. This means one car for every 10 persons. If we control the annual growth to 3% under the present COE system, there will be 490,000 cars by the year 2010, or one car to every seven persons. If we continue with this 3% growth, by the year 2030, the car population will increase three times, to 890,000 cars. Today, we have 2,900 km of roads. Roads take up almost 10% of our land, about the same amount of land that we use for building homes. If the car population triples to 890,000 in the year 2030, are we going to set aside three times the existing land for road construction? Obviously, not. Even if we limit growth, say, after the year 2010 to 1% and not 3%, the car population will double in the year 2030. Again, we are not likely to be able to set aside twice the amount of land for roads as we have today. Therefore, we must increase road capacity without using too much land. The strategies we adopt are two-fold. First, outside the city, we will expand the road capacity by building up our network of expressways. Here, I must explain that our expressways in Singapore are not like the autobahns of Germany or the motorways of England. We are a city state and, therefore, although we try to improve the speeds in the expressways, we have to be careful how much land we take. Our expressways are not even full interchanges with all the turning movements allowed. The example given by Prof. Low about Jalan Anak Bukit is a reflection of this problem. We have to build our expressways with the land constraints in mind and, therefore, sometimes we have to compromise on the design. So we do not expect cars to be zooming past at 110 km an hour. If we provide all the interchanges with all the movements, all at the left hand side, then I think we have to acquire a lot of land. So in many of our interchanges, in many of our expressways, particularly in the PIE where we built by upgrading existing arterial roads, we had to compromise. For example, in Toa Payoh, we allow bus stops along the PIE. This is unheard of when you talk about expressways, but this is the constraint. Secondly, when we look at the main trunk roads, we will try to improve the capacity of the bottle-necks, eg, the intersections. And here, we are building three-tier intersections starting with the one at Farrer Road/Adam Road and the other at Adam Road/Queensway. On the suggestion by Prof. Low to also build such an interchange at Bukit Timah/Clementi, we will take a look at it. Thirdly, we will try to improve the flow by computerising the traffic lights wherever possible. We have done so in the city area and in selected suburban areas. PWD has a programme to extend this island-wide. So the traffic flow will improve. What about increasing the road capacity within the city? The land constraint is even more severe. As many MPs observe, the city will continue to build up even though we are decentralising and building up regional centres. The built-up area in the city will double in the long term, and there is no way we can double the number of roads in the city. Where we are building the city in a new area, say, in the Marina South area, we will introduce new roads to take the services into the new areas. But where the city is growing within existing areas, eg, in Shenton Way, in Raffles Place, in Havelock Road, there is no way we can expand the road capacity by widening the roads. Therefore, we plan to do so by going underground. We are looking at building an underground road network that will increase the capacity in the city by 40%. This network is planned to be implemented in segments. We hope to do it in six segments, each segment operating on its own as an independent road tunnel. The cost of the whole network is estimated at $4.8 billion. This is about the same price as the MRT North-east sector line. In view of the very high cost, the underground road network has to be carefully evaluated. Sir, we will continue to invest in road building to increase the road capacity in order to meet Singaporeans' aspirations to own cars. But given our land constraints, we have to accept that building more roads is only just one measure to meet our growing transportation needs. The emphasis must be to make use of other public transport systems including demand management systems like the electronic road pricing. As Mr Mah Bow Tan announced last week, the Government will establish a new organisation, the Land Transport Authority, to provide a more integrated mechanism to tackle our transportation problems. That is the only way to ensure that mobility is maintained. Another question raised by Prof. Low is whether we can increase the speeds of some of the slower moving vehicles on the road. This is a balance between safety and traffic flow. I will ask the PWD and the Traffic Police to evaluate this need. Right now, they have established the balance at the present 50 km per hour. Let me now turn to the various questions on HDB. Let me start first by addressing the building programme in HDB. Before I do so, I would like to explain the nature of the demand in our applications for HDB flats. I think Assoc. Prof. Low has struck the nail on the head. The demand for HDB new flats now not only stems from people wanting a roof over their head, I think the demand now stems more by people wanting to make a capital gain out of their old flat or new flat. And that is why you see a high percentage of upgraders. The nature of the demand is different from the 1980s to the 1990s, and our response also has to be different. Mr Lau Ping Sum asks why we cannot accelerate the building programme as we did in the 1980s. He remembers that in the 1980s when there was a big backlog, we increased production by over 60,000 units per year, and the number of requests for earlier allocation dropped in his meet-the-people sessions. Today, if we do that, we will have a lot of problems, which I shall explain later. 3.30 pm Because a high percentage of our demand now are upgraders, if we were to accede to all their requests and build 50,000 or 60,000 flats a year, when they take delivery of those flats in two and a half years' time, these upgraders must sell away their flats. With 30,000 flats being put into the resale market, in a very short period of time the resale prices will drop. So the whole scenario will change for those people who are applying today. Many people apply today because, as some MPs have remarked, for the price of a 4-room flat they can sell it in the private sector market and buy a new 5-room flat. But if we were to accede to their request and build 60,000 flats, then their whole calculation will go astray. The resale prices would drop and the capital gains that many of them are calculating upon or hoping to get would not be there. I am not sure that is what Singaporeans want. So taking all these into consideration, we are building HDB flats at a higher rate but not at a rate that would cause a major collapse of the HDB resale market. In 1992, we built 24,000 flats. For 1994, we raised this to 30,000. This year, it would be 33,000, and in 1996, it would be 31,000. This is a significant increase since the late 1980s and early 1990s. The reason why we do not want to build more is not only the impact on the resale price but also the impact on the construction sector. The construction sector is enjoying a very high growth. In 1991 and 1992, the construction sector grew by 20% per year. Last year, it grew by 15%. There is a great danger that if we accelerate the building programme, both for the new flats as well as for the upgrading programme, as many Members would wish for, the construction sector would overheat. Then construction prices would go up and quality would drop. So this is the level that we feel comfortable at without overheating the construction sector, but still maintaining quality and without causing a major disruption to the resale prices. Having settled on the number of flats that we would build over the next two to three years, which is averaging around 30,000 flats, why should we not build more? We must also take the number of houses being built in the private sector into consideration. The private sector is generating, on the average, more than 10,000 flats a year now. So together with HDB's building programme, we are creating 40,000 new housing units every year. Dr Tan Cheng Bock estimates new household formation to be about 26,000. So if new household formation is around 26,000 to 30,000, and we are creating new housing units at the rate of 40,000 every year, somewhere down the line, occupancy will drop and this will be reflected in the prices. So we have to settle on 30,000 HDB flats. Having settled on this, how do we set the prices and how do we allocate the flats? There is a lot of concern and misperception that HDB prices in the new flats have gone up very drastically over the years. Let me assure the House that this is not so. HDB new flats are still very affordable. Over the last two years, from 1993 to 1994, the average increases in selling prices of HDB 4-room, 5-room and executive flats are 6%, 12% and 16% respectively. As this is the objective of the Government, we try to keep the selling prices of the 4-room flats as affordable as possible and therefore we keep the increases limited. So overall, if you take across-the-board, there is an average increase of about 10%. To HDB, however, the average costs have gone up by 34%, primarily due to increases in land cost. So the subsidies in the HDB programme have increased. When we set the selling prices of HDB flats, one of the key considerations is affordability. So you can look at the various parameters of affordability. One parameter is that the average price has gone up by about 10% over the last two years. Wages on the average have gone up by about 7% and 8%, 7% in 1993 and about 8.8% in 1994. So the average prices of HDB flats have lagged behind wages. If you look at the upper end of HDB flats, for example, executive flats, then HDB prices have increased more than the average wages. But that is because the prices of private property have gone up very significantly and there is a comparison between executive flats and private property. Nevertheless, if you look at executive flats and private properties, for example, a new HDB executive flat in Jurong West in the first half of 1994 was priced at $256,000, less than one-third the price of a private apartment of the same size in Parc Oasis which averaged around $800,000. Another measure of affordability is to assess the burden of the mortgage instalments. Dr Tan Cheng Bock asked: has this burden increased? The average mortgage instalments payable on the selling prices of all HDB flat types did not exceed 24% of the median monthly household income. This is the kind of percentage which I explained to the House some time ago. We look at the median household income of the applicants and we try to make sure the burden of servicing their mortgage instalments does not exceed more than 25-26% of their median household income. So for the median applicant, he can service his mortgage instalments entirely through his CPF contribution. In fact, that is indeed the case. If you look at the mode of payment of HDB applicants, 81% pay for their downpayments and their mortgage instalments entirely by CPF. This percentage has not changed very much over the years. That means 81% of HDB home owners are servicing their burden of home ownership entirely through the CPF. If you look at the low-income group, then I think Members can be assured that the many assistance schemes would help them buy over their flats. I do not want to elaborate the schemes. We discussed this last year and I am happy to report to the House that the four strategies which we have adopted to help the low income families own flats are progressing very well. Let me address the coffeeshop talk that the prices of new HDB flats are pushing up prices of resale HDB flats. That coffee-shop talk is unfounded. The HDB prices of the new flats are set by Government and we purposely set it such that it is affordable for all Singaporeans. The HDB resale prices are set by the market depending on the demand and supply. Prof. Low is correct in saying that over the years since 1989 the HDB has liberalised the rules so that there seems to be a higher demand in the HDB resale prices. That is the long term strategy of the Government. We want the resale market to reflect the private housing market. Therefore, we will liberalise the rules so that there is free transaction in the resale market. As Members will notice, since 1989, we have allowed more mortgage loans, we have allowed permanent residents to buy, we have allowed singles to buy in the resale market and so on. But if you look at the supply side, over the next few years there will be more resale flats coming on to the market. In 1994, upgraders who bought new HDB flats released 6,500 resale flats into the open market. This figure will increase. In 1995, this figure will go up to 7,000; in 1996, to 10,000; and 1997, to 30,000. So already we are seeing the pattern. As the upgraders take possession of their new flats they will release more flats into the resale market and this will help stabilise the resale sector. There is another source of resale flats in the market, and that is, from HDB upgraders to private properties. Again, if you look at the private property market, this year there will be a completion of 9,200 new private flats. In 1996, this figure is expected to go up to 16,400, and in 1997, 15,700. So there is a big increase in the completion of private housing units. About 20% or more of this completion will be taken up by upgraders from HDB flats. So again these people will have to put their HDB flats into the market. Therefore, another 2,000 to 3,000 HDB flats will come into the resale market from this source of HDB upgraders into the private market. Over the next three years, you will find these two big sources of HDB resale flats - those who upgrade into new HDB flats as well as those who are upgrading into private properties. Looking at this picture down the road, the increase in the supply of resale flats, as a result of Singaporeans upgrading, whether to new flats or private flats, will have a stabilising effect on the prices of resale flats. Let me now talk about the allocation of the flats. We have switched to the Registration of Flats System which is essentially a queuing system and the transition has been very smooth. But there is still some unhappiness over the waiting period in some areas. Dr Vasoo quoted the example of a four-year waiting period. The waiting period differs, depending on where you apply. If you apply for a 4-room flat in Woodlands, you will be allocated a flat within six months. If you apply for a 5-room flat in Woodlands, in the Northern region, you will get your allocation within nine months to a year. But the bulk of Singaporeans want to go to the North-East sector. More than 55% of applications are in the North-East sector where we have very few flats coming up over the next few years because we have to reclaim the land in Punggol before we can start the building programme there. As a result, if you are an upgrader waiting for a flat in the North-East region, then you have to wait four years to be allocated your flat. Mrs Yu-Foo Yee Shoon asked what about giving priority to young couples. The Government's objective to encourage young couples to live with or near their parents has been in place for many years and we have many programmes to encourage this. For example, the Multi-tier Family Priority Scheme, the Joint Selection Scheme as well as the policy of allowing existing lessees to mutually exchange their flats. Last year, of course, we introduced the $30,000 grant to the CPF to any first-timer who buys a resale flat close to their parents' home. As a result of all these schemes, the situation in fact has been quite good. More than 21% of HDB home owners have married children staying with them or in a flat next door. So 21% are staying together or next door, another 20% stay in the same block or in the nearby block. So because of the various schemes working over the years, almost 40% are staying very close to one another. Family ties remain strong. More than 71% in a survey say that their children visit them at least once a week. Nevertheless, we will continue to think of other schemes to encourage younger couples to stay with their parents, only where it is feasible. The suggestion by Mrs Yu-Foo Yee Shoon and Dr Vasoo about giving priority to young couples to stay with their parents in a mature estate, I am afraid, is just not workable. As I have explained many times in this House, the demand for such flats in a mature estate overwhelms the supply. We have tried to favour existing residents by giving them twice the priority compared to non-residents. But there is no way we can give priority to young couples to stay with their parents in the mature estates. As my Senior Parliamentary Secretary gave the response to Mr Yeo Toon Chia about Ang Mo Kio flats, for example, after the balloting exercise at the beginning of this year, there is just not any more vacant land within Ang Mo Kio to build new flats. And where there are limited vacant lands, say, in Toa Payoh or in Bukit Merah New Town, the demand ratio is 20:1. So you cannot assure the young couples that they can stay with their parents in a mature new town. If they want to stay with their parents, then, by all means, apply under the Multi-Tier Family Scheme or the Joint Selection Scheme in a new town where we are building more flats. If you want to stay in a mature town, then make use of the $30,000 CPF grant and buy a resale flat in the mature town. Mr Lau Ping Sum also asked whether we could have an allocation system that would favour families with teenage children versus younger children. I know there will be many more requests for such schemes and the more we cater for these programmes, the more complicated the housing programme allocation will be. I remember the exchange between Mr Mah Bow Tan and Mr Peh Chin Hua over taking a bus. So I would not want to go into an exchange with Mr Lau Ping Sum. But I still remember, when I was young, staying with my sisters in the same room, and none of us were any worse off. So there is no need for teenage daughters to insist on having a separate room by themselves. Mr Lau Ping Sum also requested for higher priority for grassroots organisations. We all recognise the role played by grassroots leaders in building up the community and organising activities within their communities. And we have increased the quota set aside for grassroots members from 2% to 5%. By and large, most grassroots leaders are able to get the flat of their choice in the New Towns. Unfortunately, grassroots leaders also cannot get their flats in the mature town because of the very limited supply and MND is not prepared to raise the quota for grassroots leaders in the mature towns because we have to balance this group of applicants with the public applicants. Dr Soin asked about downpayment. The HDB's requirement for 20% downpayment at the time of signing of the sales agreement is intended to make sure that people select the flat that they can afford to buy. It is a matter of prudence on the part of HDB to discourage applicants from buying a flat beyond their means. So far, this 20% downpayment has served us well because the percentage of mortgage defaults is very low in HDB flats. Dr Soin also gave a series of calculations about some couples who are not able to afford the downpayment. Listening to her calculations, in fact, I drew the opposite conclusion, ie, even a single person earning between $1,000 and $1,500 would be able to afford the downpayment for a 4-room flat or a 5-room flat. That is because most couples would work for about three or four years before they get married. The average marriage age is about 27 and they would have worked for at least four or five years. During these four or five years of working, they would have accumulated enough savings to pay for the downpayment. And, in fact, our statistics show this to be the case. Again, more than 81% of applicants who purchase their flats pay the downpayment entirely through the CPF. An average household income of $1,400 over four years would accumulate enough savings in the CPF to pay for the 20% downpayment of a 4-room flat. An average household income of $2,000 per month would be able over four years to save enough to pay for the 20% downpayment for a 5-room flat. All these are well within the affordability ranges of our young couples. We do not want to encourage our young couples to buy flats beyond their means because they must recognise that in their life cycle, at some point in time when their children and the wife withdraw from the job market, in fact they will end up with only one income. So they must make sure they calculate their mortgage instalment payments carefully and cater for the day in which the wife may not work. So we prefer to continue with this 20% downpayment so as not to send the wrong signal and encourage Singaporeans to opt for the flat type beyond their reach. For the low income earners, we have many schemes and some of these schemes, in fact, do not require them to pay 20% downpayment. For example, in the sitting tenants scheme where we encourage the rental tenants to buy their flats, there is no downpayment at all. In the Low Income Family Incentives Scheme and in the Smaller Families Improvement Scheme where we encourage them to buy 4A and smaller flats, we only require 5% downpayment. By and large, I would say the problem is not a significant one. The average couple who marries after four or five years of work would have accumulated enough to pay for the downpayment. Dr Vasoo also asked about the take-up rate of those who were allocated flats. The take-up rate has remained fairly consistent - about 90% have booked their flats when they are called up for booking. This is no different from the balloting system. Let me now turn to upgrading. Like all of you, when I go for my block visits, seven out of 10 questions are: when is our turn for upgrading? Like Dr Vasoo, I will tell them that the Minister says, "Coming soon." The progress of the upgrading has been very satisfactory. The demonstration phase with the six precincts will be completed by the end of this year. The first batch of the steady state phase has already started construction and will be ready by end of next year, and subsequent batches are in the various stages of completion. So the steady state main upgrading phase is progressing well. Under the Interim Upgrading Programme, we select at least 20 precincts every year. We have done so for two batches. In fact, we have accommodated the requests of the various Advisors and in each batch we have selected 26 precincts comprising about 21,000 flats in each batch. Again, the support has been overwhelming. We have received more than 90% votes in each of the precinct that we have organised the exhibitions for. The upgrading programme is a long-term programme and here I would like to urge Members to look at it in perspective. It will take 15 to 20 years to upgrade all the old estates. That is why we divide it into two parts. The older estates (those which are more than 17 years old), we schedule them for the main upgrading programme first, whereas those between 10 and 17 years old, we do the interim upgrading as a first step and then the main upgrading when their turn is due. To enable as many of the older flats to be upgraded as soon as possible, we have already announced that the pace of the Main Upgrading Programme will be accelerated from 10 precincts to 15 precincts, starting from this year. This is the pace that we feel we can cope with without over-heating the construction sector and without compromising on the quality. Let me explain that this is a very important point because in the upgrading programme we are entering into somebody's flat and making the renovations while the lessees are staying in it. And we cannot afford to have unskilled workers without close supervision in such situations. You find that in the upgrading programme, we use twice the number of skilled workers compared to the building of new flats, and we use twice the number of supervisors. So there is a constraint on how fast we can accelerate the Main Upgrading Programme. The second constraint is funds. Mr Chew Heng Ching referred to this and asked how we are going to fund future upgrading programmes because he has observed that the upgrading programme is funded by current revenue and not by reserves. Here is where I would urge Members not to grill Dr Richard Hu too hard. All the surpluses that are generated, we require almost $1 billion to fund the upgrading programme every year. If we do not generate that budget surplus, then the upgrading programme will have to be scaled down accordingly. There is no provision at the moment to use past reserves for the upgrading programme. I think it will be very difficult for any government to request the Elected President to release past reserves for upgrading. So the upgrading programme will have to be funded by current surpluses. And if a new government comes in and is unable to generate that budget surplus and the rules continue to apply, then I am afraid the Main Upgrading Programme will have to be curtailed drastically. Dr Wong Kwei Cheong asked about Cairnhill constituency. All the sold flats in Cairnhill are less than 20 years old and therefore they will be included in the later batches of the Main Upgrading Programme. One precinct from Cairnhill, in fact, has been chosen for the Batch II of the Interim Upgrading Programme and my Ministry will consider including more precincts from Cairnhill in future batches of the Interim Upgrading Programme. Besides the upgrading programme, let me also explain to the House that we are now looking into a process of drawing up master plans for the rejuvenation of the older estates. We have started with Toa Payoh as a pilot and we will subsequently progress with all the older estates. This master plan will involve several steps. The first step is we will divide up the estate or the whole town into the various precincts for upgrading so that we can have a schedule for the main upgrading as well as provide the framework for the town councils, whenever they do any improvements, to upgrade within that framework of what is coming in the upgrading programme in the subsequent years. Secondly, having divided up into various precincts, we will talk to the MPs and the grassroots leaders to work out some kind of scheduling for the upgrading programme. The third step is we will redevelop any vacant sites within the town, particularly sites which were formerly occupied by rental blocks and which have now been demolished because of lack of demand. Fourth, we will in this master plan revitalise the town and neighbourhood centres. We will also take this opportunity to improve the road linkages and the transport network serving the town. Finally, in consultation with the grassroots leaders, we will also work out a programme for the construction of new community facilities to service the town. So we are using Toa Payoh as a pilot and, as I said, we will progress to the other older estates.