ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURE FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR - 1ST APRIL, 2002 TO 31ST MARCH, 2003
4.40 pm But going forward, when our population gets more aged - today, it is 7% of our population above 65, in 20-30 years, this will more than double to 16-17% of the population - we have to strengthen our healthcare financing system to deal with the aging population. When the population gets more aged, we will find that the component borne by the employers will come down, because the working population will be a smaller proportion. And, therefore, the employer's share will reduce. The Government's share will have to increase, because we have to look after a greater proportion of the aged population. The MediShield and the Medisave will have to take on a heavier burden because the individual has to pay for his healthcare expenses as he grows older. Going forward, there are three main things we have to do. First, for the employers, I support the Ministry of Manpower and NTUC's move to make employers' medical benefits more portable, so that even when an employee changes jobs, he is covered. Better still, make employers' medical benefits portable beyond retirement, so that it covers post-retirement period. Second, for the Government, we would bear our fair share of the healthcare cost. But if we want to keep to our share at between a third to half, then Members must realise that we cannot subsidise the entire spectrum of the population. We must target our subsidies to the most deserving, and that means, at some point in time, we would have to introduce means testing, so that whatever subsidies the Government is prepared to fork out, those subsidies are targeted at the low income, at the most deserving. The third prong is, as many Members have raised, how to reinforce the financing system through allowing better use of the Medisave, through expanding the scope of MediShield and when we introduce ElderShield, to make sure that ElderShield works. Sir, I will cover these points in turn. First, on means testing. Both Mdm Halimah and Dr Ong Seh Hong raised this. The idea of means testing is not new. This was mooted way back in the 1993 White Paper. It is a mechanism that will allow us to target subsidies at the lower income group. As Dr Ong himself has said, philosophically, I think most of us would not disagree that Government subsidies should be targeted and given to Singaporeans who are the most deserving. Today, we have some form of self-selection. Singaporeans who are better off would opt for B1 or A class and therefore do not avail themselves of the subsidies. Singaporeans who are better off would not go to the polyclinics and therefore do not compete for the subsidies in our polyclinics. As long as this self-selection takes place, then I think we can postpone the date of means testing. As long as the demand is within what our subsidised healthcare system can supply and there are no serious accessibility problems, such as long queues and waiting times, then there is no need to implement means testing in our hospitals and our polyclinics. But if the subsidies keep expanding and we need to target, then I am afraid, at some point in time, means testing would have to be introduced. So it is inevitable that, at some point in the future, we may have to introduce means testing. So how do we gradually ease this in? One approach is that whenever we introduce new programmes in our polyclinics and in our hospitals, and if it is appropriate, then we introduce means testing selectively. For example, when we introduce the Primary Care Partnership Scheme where we allow our senior citizens to see their private GP clinics and still claim subsidies from the Government, then I think that should be means tested. Whenever we introduce new programmes and it is appropriate, then we will incorporate means testing. Dr Ong raised a point about means testing in the step-down sector, particularly in the community hospitals. Let me reassure him that we will phase in the target subsidy rates gradually and we will work with the community hospital to moderate the impact on the patients' bills. We will also give the community hospitals additional funding so that they would not need to increase their fees and charges substantially. We will work with the other community hospitals and other step-down care operators to ease means testing in. But this is a transition. In the end, we have to decide on the fundamentals. Mdm Halimah asked whether we should just subsidise the lower half, or should we also subsidise the upper half of the population, in terms of income. If today, we are spending one-third of the overall national health expenditure, then it is inevitable that our subsidy is targeted at the lower half. Once we start subsidising beyond the median into the upper half, then Government's share of expenditure must increase substantially, beyond one-third to more than half to two-thirds. 4.45 pm Today, the budget for health is $1.6 billion, 1% of the GDP, and that constitutes one-third of the national health expenditure. If we expand it to half, or two-thirds of the national health expenditure, then we are talking about increasing the budget to 2% of the GDP. Every percent of the GDP, as Members now realise, is equivalent to nearly 2% of GST. So we cannot say do not raise GST, but increase the healthcare expenditure. Some where, the budget must balance. With the budget that we have, there are still quite a number of things that we can do to improve the healthcare financing system. Let me just name some of these. First, is universal coverage. A few Members raised this, especially Mr Gan Kim Yong and Mr Yeo Guat Kwang. We have decided that our healthcare system lays emphasis on personal responsibility. It is not the national health system in the UK and it is not the private insurance system of the US. But our system puts a great store on personal responsibility, and that is the reason why our schemes insist on opt-out. By and large, a person is in, but we give him a choice to opt-out. So he is personally responsible for that decision. It is not a mandatory national social insurance scheme. We try to achieve universal coverage through an opt-out scheme. But an opt-out scheme means that some segments of our population may not be covered, for example, MediShield. MediShield today applies only primarily to Singaporeans with CPF accounts. As a result, about 74% of our resident population is covered by MediShield and 26% are not covered. This is largely the non-working spouses and children, who are not covered. If we look at the working population, our coverage rate is not too bad, at 90%. But there is still a small segment who are not covered - some of the self-employed and low income people. So, how do we increase the coverage? Mr Yeo Guat Kwang pointed out that we need to watch out for this group - the self-employed, the low income, the non-working population - as they are outside the CPF network. I agree with him because if they are not covered by MediShield and they are struck by catastrophic illnesses, then they will have problems paying for their share of the healthcare costs. So, in this regard, my Ministry will extend the opt-out, or the auto-coverage mechanism, to non-working spouses, so that they will have the opportunity to join the MediShield. We will introduce a new MediShield opt-out point for non-working spouses when couples register for their marriage. This will take effect in 2003. The thinking is that when a couple registers for marriage and if one of the couple is a non-working spouse and is not covered, then we will send a little polite note to the couple and say, "Congratulations! One of the spouse is not covered, you are now automatically in, unless you sign an opt-out form." And we hope that the spouse who is covered will not sign the opt-out form for the non-working spouse. I do not think it will happen. Some of my more enthusiastic staff say, "What about children? Why do we not send similar letters every time we get the registration in the birth certificate?" I told my staff, "Let us take this one step at a time. If we do this too much, then we will be accused of being too intrusive." In any case, when the children grow up, when they work and get their CPF account, they will be covered by MediShield. So I think we have some time. Meanwhile, we will mount more public education programmes to get people to sign on their entire family under MediShield. The next thing we can do is, of course, to extend the use of Medisave and MediShield. We will gradually do so, but I would urge that we do so cautiously. The first thing we can do is to allow Medisave for ambulatory care. Because of the rapid advances in medical technology, some of the medical treatments, which are traditionally done in an inpatient setting, can now be done in an outpatient setting. But because Medisave and MediShield currently only cover primarily hospitalisation expenses, we inadvertently discourage the right setting of care. In other words, there is little incentive for the patients and the providers to seek or provide treatments at the outpatient settings since they are unable to access Medisave and MediShield. I have therefore decided to extend the use of Medisave and MediShield to several outpatient treatments, which are in lieu of inpatient treatments. This will reduce the need for inpatient hospitalisation and will save costs. The changes for Medisave extension will take effect in October 2002. My Ministry will put out a press release on this. Similarly, to facilitate patients who need to use step-down care facilities, MOH will also revise the Medisave withdrawal limits for step-down care on 1st July 2002. We will raise the Medisave annual withdrawal limit for community hospitals from $3,000 to $3,500, and the daily withdrawal limit for hospices from $125 to $160. Singaporeans who need community hospital, or hospice care, would therefore be able to use more Medisave and, in turn, less out-of-pocket cash. But here, I would like to caution Members that these changes should not and do not signal that we are liberalising Medisave and MediShield for general outpatient care. We must proceed cautiously because an overly liberal use of Medisave would necessitate higher Medisave contribution rates. We therefore need to strike a balance. The third area is to reset the Medisave withdrawal limits and the MediShield claimable limits based on the Diagnosis Related Group (DRG). Today, the limits are based on the number of days a patient is hospitalised, the so-called "per-diem" basis, and the complexity of the surgical procedures, a set of tables. They may not truly reflect the level of resources needed to treat the different medical conditions. We are therefore revising the Medisave withdrawal limits and the MediShield claimable limits for inpatient care and day surgery based on the Diagnosis Related Group, so that they will be better commensurate with the medical conditions of the patients. The intention is to enable patients with more severe medical conditions to withdraw more Medisave and claim more from MediShield to pay for their medical bills as compared to today. These changes are scheduled for the first quarter of 2003. The fourth area is really to expand MediShield so that it can better cater to the needs for old age. This is what several Members have advocated, for example, Mr Yeo Guat Kwang. We are looking into this. And there are two stages that we will proceed. The first is to enhance the features of MediShield in the first quarter of 2003. In that first phase, we will increase the claimable limits, we will lower the deductibles and the co-payment, and expand the coverage to additional outpatient treatments and neo-natal care, so that MediShield can play a bigger role in our personal healthcare financing. The second phase is to expand MediShield to provide lifetime coverage, instead of just stopping its coverage at the age of 80. To do so, we will have to introduce some form of pre-funding of MediShield. We will do so in 2004. Under this scheme, currently what happens is that Singaporeans pay a higher premium as they grow older. So it becomes less affordable as one grows older. With pre-funding, what we can do is to get Singaporeans to pre-fund, or collect a higher premium, when they are younger and then when they reach 65, they will be covered for the rest of their life. This is a major change and it means quite a major restructuring of the MediShield, and we target to do this in 2004. Mr Gan Kim Yong said that we need to raise the premiums if we want to do such a major change. Indeed, we have to. Today, MediShield plays a fairly limited role because it is a catastrophic insurance scheme. We collect about $90 million in premiums every year. If we look at the national health expenditure (NHE) of about $4.2 billion, $90 million is between 1-2% of the national health expenditure. So MediShield is only playing a piffling role in our overall structure. If we want MediShield to undertake, say, 10% of our NHE, something like $400-over million, then we need a four-time increase in the premiums to make it really effective. So I am giving Members early warning. When I come next to the House with a major restructuring of the MediShield, and if we want MediShield to play a major role and be the foundation for the portable medical benefits scheme, then we need a fairly quantum leap in the coverage. Mr Yeo Guat Kwang also suggested that we accredit more insurance schemes as Medisave-approved schemes. To-date, besides MediShield, we have four other Medisave-approved catastrophic illnesses insurance schemes, namely, IncomeShield, HealthShield Plus, SupremeHealth and MaxHealth, of which the last two were just introduced last year. Let me just sound this word of caution. If we have a number of such private schemes and they each take 5-10% of the market share, the danger is that the private sector will then cherry-pick the good risks and leave the bad risks to MediShield, and that will make MediShield untenable. So we have to review the guidelines governing the use of Medisave for approved insurance scheme. We will consult the industry players. Our intent is to give private insurers greater flexibility to offer more products as long as key safeguards, such as deductibles and co-payments remain to deter the "buffet syndrome". But we must also make sure that each player carries a fair share of the good risks and the bad risks. Sir, as I said, we are targeting to do this study and for the major reform of the MediShield, it will take us about a year and we will be in a position to come to this House with the new scheme before 2004. The next area is ElderShield. We introduced the concept of ElderShield and we got the private sector to tender for it and we are in the position now to implement it in September this year. Dr Lily Neo and Mdm Halimah raised several questions about ElderShield. Let me just go through some of the key principles in the ElderShield. First, we decided that it should be an actuarial insurance, rather than a social insurance. If it is an actuarial insurance, then it means that the pre-existing disabilities cannot be covered. That is the industry practice. Second, we have to decide on the payout ratio. The current industry norm is 3 Activities of Daily Living (ADLs). If we lower it to 1 or 2 ADLs, then the payout ratio will be higher. Today, at 3 ADLs, the payout ratio is 1:12. So that is the whole idea of insurance. We collect from 12 persons and we pay out to one person. So the premium is low. If we lower the ADLs to 1 or 2 ADLs, then the payout ratio will be much higher. Then we have to collect from fewer people to pay out to more people, in which case, the premiums will be higher. As a start, we have decided to stick at 3 ADLs, which is the industry norm, and that means a payout ratio of about 1:12. 5.00 pm The next feature is the level of payout. We have decided on $300. Why? Because if you are a low-income person and you are disabled and you have to go to a nursing home, through our means testing, you will qualify for 75% subsidy. The Government will pay 75% subsidy if you are the bottom 10%. If you are the bottom 30%, the Government will pay 50% subsidy. The nursing homes today charge around $1,000-$1,200. So, your share will be about $250 or $500. Therefore, a $300 payout will go quite a long way to help you pay for your share of a nursing home. That is why we decided on $300. We decided on cash rather than claims for service, so that it gives you flexibility. As Dr Lily Neo said, if the patient also has chronic illnesses but stays at home, he could use the $300 for outpatient services, for home medical or home nursing. But in the more severe case when you have to end up in a nursing home, then the $300 is a significant percentage of the co-sharing of your component of nursing home fees. The other feature is the payout period. We decided on five years or 60-month payout because our survey shows that the average length of stay for nursing home patients is normally between two and five years. So a 60-month payout is sufficient. But let me just say that we are launching ElderShield and we want to make it as simple as possible to get it started. We have got two private insurers to provide the service. The intention is that after they have run this scheme for one or two years, we will encourage the private sector to have top-up to this scheme. So this is a basic scheme. In one or two years, when the private insurers running the scheme have more experience, I see no reason why they cannot offer enhancements, eg, higher payouts, longer payout periods and different types of coverage. So this is just the basic coverage. To make this scheme work, we need to ease it in. For somebody who is 40 years old today, it is not a problem. You pay the premiums, at the age of 65 you are covered for the rest of your life. For somebody who is 65 now, to pay the premium to be covered for the rest of your life, the premiums will be very high. So we need to find a way to ease it in. And the way we have done so is to allow people to pay premiums over a 10-year period, from 59 years old to 69 years old. So we have a cut-off at 70. Anybody who is younger than that will have a 10-year payout, and the Government will, in fact, contribute almost a third of the premiums to help make the premiums affordable. This subsidy will amount to $360 million. So we have persuaded the Government to give us $360 million to help pay almost one-third of the premiums of the senior citizens. Then, there are two groups - those above 70 and those with pre-existing disabilities. They are not covered. For these, we have the IDAPE scheme in which the Government really becomes the insurer. If they are above 70 or are already disabled, the Government will, in fact, pay them $100 or $150 for up to 60 months. So the Government undertakes to be the insurer, because it is not fair to load them onto the actuarial system. If we load them onto ElderShield, then the rest of Singaporeans will pay. For this group, in fact the Government becomes the insurer, but they will receive half of what they will get from ElderShield. To run this transition scheme will cost the Government $300 million. Just to introduce ElderShield, we have to go to the Government and seek a total of $660 million to ease the scheme in. After this transition, when the scheme is on a sure footing, then it will be on its own. Mr Yeo Guat Kwang asked why we have not promoted the scheme more rigorously. For pragmatic reasons, if I do a major promotion last year, most Singaporeans would have forgotten by now. So we target to go out and promote this scheme more aggressively between June and September when the scheme will be launched. We are enlisting the help of all the Mayors to help us work the ground and launch the scheme from June to September. Finally, for the low-income group, Medifund is a very important safety net. As Mr Gan Kim Yong said, it is very effective. 97% of Medifund applicants are successful in their applications. We continue to review the Medifund eligibility criteria regularly. Each hospital has a Medifund Committee and it has the flexibility to deviate from the Medifund criteria and approve deserving cases under exceptional circumstances. That is the reason why we have such a high approval rate. But it is still within the interest income that we are earning from the capital sum of $800 million in the Medifund. On public education, I agree with both Mr Yeo Guat Kwang and Mr Zainul Abidin that we have to do more and get Singaporeans, particularly our elderly Singaporeans, to understand the system and to navigate the system. A key component of this is counselling at the point of service, in the hospitals. When Mr Zainul Abidin raised the example of one of his MPS cases, where one of his constituents decided to send the parent to an A-class ward despite our financial counselling, then there is very little we can do to help. If I may just reinforce this point. As I have said here before, we have universal accessibility to our healthcare system. As long as a patient chooses B2 and C-class wards - I used to give the example, unlike lawyers, when Mr Chiam raised this question - we do not collect deposits when a patient chooses a B2 or C-class ward. So when Dr Michael Lim raised the example of KK Hospital wanting a deposit of $20,000 or $60,000, this refers to private patients. Our rules are straightforward. If you are a subsidised B2 or C-class patient, you are guaranteed access to our healthcare system. There is no deposit. We treat you first and settle the bill later on. We have done so in all cases. We use Medifund for the deserving cases. However, if you choose to come in for B1 and A-class, that means you have self-selected, you have decided for yourself that you are above the median and you can pay for the healthcare costs. Therefore, we will treat you just like in a private hospital. We will evaluate what kind of condition you are coming in for and we will ask you for the relevant and appropriate deposit. I think that is fair. When you go to a private hospital, you have also decided for yourself that you do not need subsidies and you can pay for your medical bills. We are very happy that you are able to go and can afford private healthcare. But, when you want to switch from a private hospital to a public hospital, we will deem you as a private patient and, therefore, we require you to put up a deposit. The example that Dr Michael Lim raised is a neo-natal case. We face several of such cases every year. They deliver the babies, the babies are premature, complications, so the bills mount. One way is to tell the private hospital that since they have accepted the patient, it is their moral responsibility to look after the patient. If they have accepted the patient, if there are complications, they carry on looking after the patient and, if there is a bad debt, it is part of their operating costs. We should not have a situation where the private hospitals encounter such cases and then encourage the patients to go to the public hospitals. Then the public hospitals become the hospital of last resort. The other approach is to cover this under MediShield, and this is what we intend to do. So when we make the changes next year, we will allow MediShield to cover such neo-natal cases. Dr Michael Lim also asked about the role of public healthcare institutions. Let me assure Dr Michael Lim and all Members here that, today, more than 90% of the beds in the public-sector hospitals are subsidised beds. That is our primary role and remains our primary role. However, we do run a small percentage of beds for A-class patients where we treat them as private patients, whether it is Singaporean or foreign patients. In NUH, for example, foreign patients account for less than 5% of the patient-load. When we allow the hospitals to run the Faculty Practice Plan, less than 1% of the specialist manpower in the public sector is involved. When we allow them to do so, the hospitals have to do so strictly at arm's length, and all their services are priced at market rates. So it is proper accounting. There is no cross-subsidy. Hence, it is not true that we are using public resources to compete with the private sector. Dr Michael Lim also queried why the polyclinics have gone into night clinics. The reason why I have allowed the polyclinics to go into night clinics is because I consider that as providing better services for Singaporeans. Unfortunately, it also means a little bit more competition for the private clinics in the area. But all of us should be able to take competition in our stride. We have restructured our public-sector hospitals and polyclinics so that they are more efficient, productive and responsive. I think this is one of the areas contributing to our lower NHE. If we had continued running our polyclinics and hospitals like the old Government departments without subjecting them to competition and without subjecting them to productivity pressures and efficiency pressures, the costs would have been higher. The idea is not for these institutions to maximise profits but, really, to bring costs down and offer a better service to Singaporeans. Last year, we went one step forward to position the public sector, both the Singapore Healthcare Services and the National Healthcare Group, the two clusters, as "Not-for-Profit" entities explicitly. We designate them as not-for-profit organisations so that our two clusters will preserve their sense of public service and have a different organisation culture from the private hospitals. But that does not mean that they do not make surpluses. They must be efficient and, with the private patients, they must charge what the market can bear, and they should make surpluses. They should not be embarrassed by it. But, having made the surpluses, these are not-for-profit organisations, and they will then use these surpluses for research, better services and training of their staff. Let me now turn to the doctor situation. Compared to December 2000, in December 2001, we had a nett increase of 345 doctors, or 6.2%. Our doctor to population ratio has improved from 1:720 to 1:700 now. If you ask me, the overall doctor situation is all right. If we look around, do we have a shortage of private-sector GPs? I think the answer is no. Many of our private-sector GPs have to compete and are struggling. So there is really no shortage of doctors. We do have a shortage of specialists. Not enough doctors are becoming specialists, and we do have a shortfall of specialists in a few areas, eg, cardiac surgery, radiology and geriatrics. But, by and large, the total number of doctors is sufficient. We do have a shortage of doctors in the public sector. By our norms, we have a shortfall of about 12%. This means that our doctors in the public sector are heavily worked. Instead of working eight or nine hours per day, they have to work 10, 11 or 12 hours. This is obviously not sustainable and we have taken action to try and recruit more and improve the manpower situation. 5.15 pm On a national basis, NUS has increased its intake for medicine starting in 1996 and, therefore, we should start seeing more doctors graduating from this year. The Singapore Medical Council has also exercised greater flexibility in approving temporary registration of foreign-trained doctors. That allows us to bring in a few more foreign-trained doctors. Dr Lily Neo is not very happy with this and she feels that we are bringing in doctors from neighbouring or immediate countries and that would diminish our reputation and lower the standards of care here. Let me assure her that when SMC allows these doctors in on temporary registration, it means that these doctors are strictly supervised. They are not allowed to practise on their own. They practise within an institutional framework under close supervision. It is not our intention to diminish the reputation of Singapore as a healthcare centre. But we do need them as a way of building up our supply. Singapore has a very small population and it cannot just depend on Singaporeans to be doctors. At the steady stage, if we can train between 230-250 Singaporeans in our university and we supplement it by an annual recruitment of between 50-80 doctors trained overseas, both Singaporeans and Malaysians, as well as other nationalities, I think it will provide for a fairly robust system. So we are not having a group of doctors that are overly represented by foreign doctors. On the medical intake quotas, there are three sound reasons why there is a quota. First, we still believe that we need to have a finger on the supply of doctors. Second, we have a limited talent pool. We cannot have all our brightest students going to be doctors. And third, the cost of training doctors is very expensive. There are still reasons for us to have a quota. With regard to the one-third quota on female students, unfortunately, the data still shows that more female doctors work part-time than male doctors. You can either look at it as a container being half-full or half-empty, but that is a fact of life. I have said earlier that we are reviewing this quota. In fact, the Economic Review Committee's Services Sub-committee, chaired by Mr Khaw Boon Wan, is studying the medical manpower requirements, including the quota on female medical students, in the light of the overall medical services review to promote the healthcare services industry. I would urge Members to be a little bit more patient and give Mr Khaw Boon Wan a bit more time to complete his study. On nurses, the situation has also improved a little. We have a 3.3% increase in nurses compared to 2000. Our nurses to population ratio is now 1:300. In the public sector, we have vacancies of about 6.6%. This is a slight improvement from last year's shortfall of 7.5%. We have taken steps to address this shortfall. First, we have increased the total nursing student intake in Nanyang Polytechnic and the ITE by more than 100 places. We have looked at salary reviews, increased the salaries of nurses by an average of 13% in the year 2000, and 6% last year. We have worked out a clinical career path for nurses. Our intention is that we will facilitate around 25% of our nurses in taking up degree courses. Whether the degree course is done locally or overseas is something we have to work with the Ministry of Education. But we have worked out a career path and our intention is that 25% of our nurses should have the opportunity to progress to degree courses. Dr Michael Lim suggests that maybe we can set up overseas training facilities. We have the resources here. Our problem is not training facilities. Our problem is attracting Singaporeans to take up nursing as a career. There is an article in the Today paper. It is a three-part series on nursing. The most striking feature of that article is that some of the students, who take up the courses, drop out when they realise quite early in the course that it is a very, very demanding career. If you do not have the commitment, then many of them do not make it. It is a very challenging and a very demanding career. Our job is to make it attractive and make sure that enough Singaporeans are attracted to nursing to serve Singaporeans. But for the immediate future, we still need to depend on between 20-25% foreigners to fill up the nursing positions in our hospitals. Mr Chairman, I believe I have covered most of the items. Let me just say that for the point on PCPS, I have answered this previously in Parliament, so there is no need to go through it again. Mr Low Thia Khiang also raised about the MOs being overworked. We are reviewing the situation. Today, there is some disparity in the hospitals and also between departments in the hospitals, where some MOs, who are posted to some departments, because of the shortage of junior MOs there, they end up having more than a fair share of their night duties. We have asked the hospitals to review this and rationalise the situation. We are keeping a close watch on this. Let me just end by saying that healthcare cost will continue to go up. I cannot stand here and tell you that we can control healthcare cost to the extent that it will not go up. As Dr Ong Seh Hong summarised, there are so many reasons why healthcare cost goes up, many of these are beyond our control. The more sensible approach is to recognise that if you want a level of healthcare equivalent to what is available in the developed countries, then we must accept the fact that healthcare cost will go up. It will go up by between 4%, 6% or even 8% every year. So far, we have been very fortunate because our economy also grows by 6%, 8% and even 10% in the first seven years in the 1990s. Our national healthcare expenditure is able to maintain at 3% of GDP. If we undertake all the changes put up by DPM Lee in his tax review and we generate the 4-6% growth, that will be the best bet for us to keep up with healthcare costs. If healthcare cost goes up 6-8%, our economy grows by 4-6%, we maintain our national health expenditure at around 3-4% of GDP, and that is the best solution for affordability of healthcare. If you do not generate the growth, healthcare cost will still go up because Singaporeans will still want good healthcare. Then, we will be in a fix, trying to find the money to pay for healthcare cost. Having maintained the growth and we contain healthcare cost to between 6-8%, then we are still ahead in the game. What we need to do, recognising that healthcare cost will go up, is to prepare for the situation in 10-20 years from now when a higher percentage of our population is aged and we have to spend more on healthcare. This is what the tax changes are all about. What we do in Health is to prepare for that day. This means we introduce ElderShield, we expand MediShield, we build up ElderCare Fund. In case Members need to be reminded, we launched ElderCare Fund less than two years ago, and because of the budget surpluses that we were able to generate, we are able to set aside $1 billion already in ElderCare Fund. We build up all these endowment funds during this period where we are enjoying good growth and these endowment funds will serve us well when we are in a period of lower growth because of a maturing economy.