Mr Speaker, Sir, I beg to move, "That Parliament approves the financial policy of the Government for the financial year 1st April, 1983 to 31st March, 1984." Sir, I have been delegated the authority by the Minister for Finance to prepare and deliver the Budget Statement under Articles 144 and 145 of the Constitution of Singapore. The first part of my Statement comprises a review of the progress of the Singapore economy in 1982 and our economic policy. The second will elaborate on the Main and Development Estimates for the financial year 1983 and the third on the Revenue Estimates and tax changes to meet our social and economic objectives. Section I The Economy in 1982 A detailed review of the performance of our economy in 1982 can be found in the Economic Survey of Singapore, 1982 (Cols. 447 - 728), copies of which have been given to hon. Members of the House earlier. Today I shall highlight our performance briefly. In my Budget Statement last year, I told the House that I expected 1982 to be a grim year with mounting problems of unemployment and protectionism in the industrialized countries. To my regret, my fears have turned out to be well-founded. The world economy is today in a most perilous state. The hopes of many finance ministers, bankers and economists were dashed when the US economy did not recover and consequently failed to pull the world out of the recession. Instead, the US economy contracted by 1.8%. Growth in the other industrialized countries, where it did occur, was muted. As a result, more workers in the industrialized countries lost their jobs, causing the already high unemployment to scale to new peaks. In the United States, the number of people who were jobless totalled 12 million (10.8% of the workforce) while in the European Economic Community it was 12.3 million or 11.1% of the workforce. As a result of the adverse economic conditions, world trade shrank by 1.5%, the first decline since 1975. Protectionism became more widespread. In November last year Trade Ministers from 88 countries attended a meeting of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in an attempt to halt and to roll back protectionism. The meeting, however, ended in disarray, spelling more trouble ahead for free trade. The fragile state of the international banking system added to these problems. Following the first oil crisis in 1973, many developing countries borrowed massively to finance their balance-of-payment deficits. Their international debts now exceed US$600 billion. Because of the world recession and the fall in commodity prices they are unable to meet their loan repayments. Major banks had not only to reschedule the existing loan repayments but also provide additional loans to prevent a collapse of the financial system. In 1982 the Singapore economy began to feel the force of these international economic storms. After four years of rapid growth in the region of 9-10% per annum, our economy slowed down considerably last year to grow by 6.3%. However, compared with the dismal economic conditions in most parts of the world, it was nevertheless a respectable performance. We were able to obtain this relatively high rate of growth mainly because of domestic factors. Our construction industry was kept busy with the building of HDB flats. The pace of construction of hotels, factories, commercial complexes and high-rise apartments also continued unabated. Other than construction, however, all major sectors of the economy were affected by the recession. Manufacturing was particularly hard-hit. Its output fell by 6%, the first decline since the last recession in 1975. Our external trade which used to enjoy high annual growth rates, increased by only 2% mainly because of larger imports for infrastructural development and for the setting up of new factories. In line with the fall in world trade, the exports of our domestic producers suffered a decline. Although both the transport and communication, and the financial and business services sectors continued to expand, it was at a slower pace than the year before. Despite the general economic slowdown, we were fortunate that we still had full employment. In fact, more new jobs were created in 1982 than in 1981, especially in the expanding construction sector and in the hotel industry. However, our productivity performance was poor. Productivity grew by only 2.0%, considerably lower than the 5.3% achieved in 1981. The only real cheer for our economy in 1982 was the sharp decline in our inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index rose by 3.9%, less than half the rate of 8.2% in 1981. This increase was among the lowest in the world. As world commodity prices will probably remain depressed while oil prices are likely to decline, the outlook for inflation in 1983 offers some encouragement. We must, however, ensure that domestic factors do not push up our inflation rate. Singaporeans enjoyed a smaller increase in real income in 1982. As measured by GDP per capita, real income rose by 5.1% compared to 8.6% in 1981. This is a further indication of the difficult times that we are going through. Although income has not failed to go up year after year, such increases can no longer be taken for granted. We must, in fact, be prepared for no growth in real income at all if the world economy slides into deeper misery in 1983. Industrial Development I shall now elaborate on specific areas of our economic policy. As our manufacturing industry is most exposed to the international business environment, it was severely affected by the prolonged worldwide economic recession in 1982. Production in all major industries either declined or grew at sharply reduced rates. Only those producing building materials for the booming construction sector were able to enjoy a faster rate of growth. Despite the difficult economic climate, we were able to maintain international confidence in our economic policies and management. New foreign investments in manufacturing continued to flow in at a high rate. We attracted a total of $1.7 billion of new investment commitments in 1982, only slightly lower than the record $1.9 billion achieved in 1981. The quality of new investments remained good. Outside the capital intensive petroleum sector, the major portion of investments were committed for the manufacture of computers and related equipment, electronic components and machinery. Our building programmes induced new investment in the manufacture of construction materials. In the technical services sector, investment commitments for computer software and engineering services increased from $34 million in 1981 to $132 million in 1982. Local companies continued to invest at a satisfactory rate. Their investments of $540 million accounted for more than 30% of total investment commitments in 1982. The Small Industries Finance Scheme (SIFS) played an important role in stimulating the growth and development of local companies. In 1982, $83 million in concessionary loans were granted to 234 cases under the SIFS. A new scheme, the Small Industries Technical Assistance Scheme, has been introduced to assist local companies to obtain the services of suitable experts from multinational companies or consultancy agencies. These experts can help to identify and solve technical and managerial problems of small local companies. The Singapore Institute of Standards and Industrial Research (SISIR) has also implemented a government-funded programme to develop a Materials Technology Applications Centre to assist Singapore companies in the area of materials applications. Our industrial development in the years ahead will depend on the pace of automation and research and development. We are achieving good progress in these two areas. Several manufacturing and technical services companies have installed highly sophisticated computer aided design and computer-aided manufacturing systems, or CAD/CAM for short. More use is being made of robots in manufacturing operations. Over 60 companies have invested in automatic manipulators or programmable robot systems for spray painting, welding, material handling and assembly work. We will continue to encourage automation through the provision of tax incentives and financial assistance. In 1982, 18 companies were given incentives in the form of investment allowances for the purchase of automated equipment. The Skills Development Fund (SDF) also approved over $10 million worth of interest grants in respect of 245 applications under its Interest Grant for Mechanisation Scheme. These grants will generate investment of about $78 million in new automated equipment. To support industrial automation, the EDB is expanding its training programmes in the skills required for the operation and maintenance of automated equipment. A CAD/CAM training unit has been established in conjunction with a leading US company in this field while an industrial robotics training unit will soon be established in cooperation with a European robot manufacturer. The EDB's industrial training centres are also being upgraded to include training in the programming of CNC (Computer Numerical Control) machines which are increasingly being used in manufacturing. Our efforts to encourage R & D have met with encouraging success. According to a survey conducted by the Science Council, 174 establishments in the private and public sectors are currently undertaking some form of R & D. Grants totalling $14 million from the R & D block vote introduced in 1981 have been approved to fund 17 research projects. The 17 projects, undertaken mainly by the National University of Singapore in conjunction with various public-sector agencies and private-sector companies, include work in robotics, micro-processor technology, civil engineering and medical research. Local companies are also being encouraged to venture into new product design and development. In 1982, seven of them have been given grants totalling $680,000 under the Product Development Assistance Scheme. The Science Park, which has been designed to serve as a focal point for R & D activities in Singapore and to foster closer interaction between the University and industry, will be ready for occupation this year. The first tenants of the Park will include a Marine Technology Centre and a Software Technology Centre. The National Computer Board and SISIR will also be moving to new premises within the Park. Other candidates under consideration for the Science Park include R & D-oriented companies in biotechnology, robotics and polymer applications. Prospects Ahead The immediate prospects for new investments in manufacturing will continue to be plagued by the recession in our major investor countries. We will have to work even harder this year to attract investments to Singapore. As in the past two years, the EDB will identify and promote selected companies in industries which are least affected by the recession and in areas of new technology which are enjoying growing markets. Existing manufacturing firms will be encouraged to make use of the lull in business to consolidate their operations, diversify into growth areas and upgrade the skills of their workers. Looking further ahead, we will have to prepare ourselves for the very different economic environment that will arise from the structural changes going on in the developed countries. In particular, the push into automation and the rapid rate of technological innovation will have significant implications for our future industrial development. Companies that are presently engaged in automating their existing plants in the US, Europe and Japan will have insufficient resources to undertake new investments overseas. Moreover, with increased productivity from automation there will be less economic advantage in establishing new offshore facilities simply to take advantage of lower wage costs. Despite the effects of automation in the industrialized countries, our hope is that there will still be the more dynamic multinational companies who will continue to take a global viewpoint in their operations. The EDB will concentrate on identifying such companies with a view to getting them to establish part of their operations in Singapore. To successfully attract highly-automated projects, our non-labour costs namely, the cost of land, factory buildings, utilities and supporting services - must be kept competitive. We will therefore work towards moderating the increases in these costs. Generous tax incentives and concessionary loans will continue to be granted to desirable projects. We will ensure that the new technical skills and services required for automated operations will be readily available. To maintain our growth and competitiveness in the 1980s, locally-owned and managed companies must also adapt to the changing realities. They must not only automate and upgrade their operations, but also diversify into new, high-technology industries that are replacing the traditional industries as growth leaders. It is encouraging that several of our local companies have already taken steps in this direction. They have linked up with foreign companies to manufacture sophisticated industrial products such as computer peripherals, industrial robots and photovoltaic solar cells. We will encourage more local companies to diversify in this manner. The Economic Development Board (EDB), through its international network, will assist them in making contacts with the right foreign companies. Appropriate incentives will be given for such joint venture projects involving the manufacture and development of new products. The EDB will also intensify its promotion of export-oriented brain services especially those that can make full use of the investments we have made in our technical education facilities. The Board sees potential for Singapore in areas such as computer software, engineering design and technical services, medical testing and laboratory services. The Economic Expansion Incentives Act was originally designed in the 1960s to promote manufacturing industries. The Act will be suitably amended to encourage the development of knowledge-based services and activities involving biotechnology, microbiological production and other new technologies. Trade Development Board On the trade front, the spectre of protectionism continues to loom large. The prolonged world recession has caused many countries to turn desperately to short-term and politically popular measures to safeguard employment. Not only have existing trade restrictions been enforced more strictly but new ones have been introduced. Singapore was again not spared. Our exports of textiles, black and white television receivers, and umbrellas continued to be subject to restrictive measures which have various names like "orderly marketing arrangements" or "voluntary export restraints." Other measures include, for example, the ludicrous new ruling by France making it mandatory that the French language be used in the documentation for commercial transactions. The United States, the European Community, Japan and Carlada have tightened up the rules of their Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) to selectively restrict the more competitive countries, including Singapore. Our exports of refrigerator compressors for instance have been removed from the US GSP Scheme. As a result of the worldwide trade problems, our domestic exports fell by 1% in 1982, the first decline since 1975. We can expect to face even greater difficulties in the years ahead. The protectionist mood in international trade will prevail for as long as the developed countries are unable to solve their problem of structural unemployment. As I said last year, and it bears repeating, our best defence against trade protectionism is to increase our productivity so that our goods will still be competitive in price and quality despite protectionistic barriers. We will need to expand our domestic exports by pursuing more aggressive strategies in existing markets and by penetrating new markets. In the longer term, we can become less vulnerable to protectionism only by restructuring our economy and producing products and services of increased value-added content. Ultimately, it is the drive and acumen of our manufacturers and traders that will help us to overcome trade barriers. The Government will assist whenever possible. In response to the suggestion of the private sector, we have reorganised the Department of Trade into the Trade Development Board (TDB). The TDB will be able to adopt a more flexible and professional approach to the promotion and development of trade. The TDB has been tasked to plan new trade development programmes that will assist our manufacturers, particularly the local ones, in a more effective way to establish themselves in overseas markets. Our network of overseas trade offices will be expanded to help exporters seek out new market opportunities. In 1982, trade offices were opened in Jeddah and Bonn. More offices will be set up as and when needed. Apart from coordinating promotional activities in trade fairs and missions in potential markets, these trade offices will search out foreign buyers for our Singapore-made intermediate products such as electronic, electrical and engineering components and parts. In 1982, 254 Singapore companies participated in 24 overseas trade fairs, missions and in store promotions. For 1983, the TDB will be organizing 36 trade fairs and missions to West Asia, the European Community and the United States. These fairs and missions will concentrate on specialized areas including electronic products and components, furniture, printing and publishing services, engineering subcontracting services and high fashion wear. Survey missions are also being planned to hitherto untapped markets in Africa, the Pacific islands and Latin America. To disseminate information on markets and products, eleven marketing seminars and workshops for manufacturers and exporters were held in 1982. More of these sessions will be organized. The TDB is proceeding with plans to introduce a fully computerized trade information system by 1985. When ready, this will provide speedy access to market information for our exporters and their customers. The TDB will also review our present export incentives in order to see how their effectiveness can be increased. ASEAN In spite of the difficulties in world trade, I am happy to report that our regional trade under the ASEAN Preferential Trading Arrangements (PTA) has continued to grow. A total of 8,560 items enjoyed preferential treatment as at the end of 1982. In addition, an across-the-board tariff preference of 20-25% was made available for 1,149 items whose 1978 import values were between US$0.5 million and US$l million. Effective from January 1983, this ceiling was raised to US$2.5 million, resulting in another 1,000 items being eligible for the tariff concessions. To further boost intra-ASEAN trade, ASEAN Economic Ministers at their 14th Meeting in November 1982 agreed that the across-the-board tariff ceiling be raised yet again to US$10 million. Financial Services The demand for financial services in this region will continue to expand, considering that the Asia Pacific Basin has been identified as a high growth area in the coming decades. New financial centres such as Tokyo are likely to grow to meet the demand. We must therefore constantly upgrade the quality of our international and regional financial services to maintain our leading role. In addition to upgrading domestic banking services, the Monetary Authority intends to focus on three major areas in the coming year for the further development of Singapore as a financial centre. These are the consolidation of the gold market, the promotion of international loan syndication activities and the development of offshore fund management. To further promote the orderly development of the gold market, companies trading in gold will in future have to be members of the Gold Exchange of Singapore. The Gold Exchange, in consultation with the Monetary Authority, will tighten its rules and by-laws with a view to facilitating self-regulation by members of the Exchange, This will eliminate malpractices and enhance the reputation of Singapore's gold market. Trading in financial futures is also being studied. In particular, the possibility of merging the proposed financial futures exchange with the Gold Exchange is being explored. The study will also look into the possibility of establishing links with similar, more established exchanges in the financial capitals of the world. Much effort has been made to encourage loan syndication activities in Singapore. For example, measures have been taken to improve the supporting infrastructure such as tele-communications, legal and printing services. A special tax holiday scheme will be introduced in this Budget to spur loan syndication activities. I will elaborate on the details of this scheme in Part III of my Statement. Our development as a financial centre and the success of our economic strategies have attracted a considerable inflow of funds. This has put upward pressure on the value of the Singapore dollar. The strengthening of the dollar in 1982 helped to dampen inflation imported from abroad and assisted in our economic restructuring. But our exporters had to work doubly hard to maintain their competitive edge at a time when markets were not expanding. In view of the more difficult prevailing economic conditions, we must continue to ensure that our traders and export-oriented manufacturing firms are not handicapped by an overvalued Singapore dollar or unduly high domestic interest rates. Tourism The world recession has also affected our tourism industry. In 1982, we received a total of 2.96 million visitors. This represented a sharply reduced growth of 4.5% compared to the average of 11.4% growth in the preceding three years. If not for the steady flow of visitors from the more buoyant Asian markets, our tourist sector would have suffered even more. A total of 250 conventions and 42 trade fairs were held in Singapore in 1982, slightly more than in the previous year. Substantial growth in this area is not expected until the mid-80s when more large-scale convention facilities come onstream. Despite the slowdown in the growth of tourist arrivals, hotel developments by the private sector continued at a brisk pace, stimulated no doubt by the high hotel occupancy rates over the past 5 years. At the end of 1982, Singapore had a total of 14,120 hotel rooms. A further 1,300 rooms are expected to be completed in 1983. After three years of rapidly increasing hotel room rates, there are signs that the room rates charged by our hotels are beginning to come down. The Singapore Tourist Promotion Board will continue its intensive overseas promotions. It is encouraging to see that our hotels and other members of the travel industry have also stepped up their own marketing and promotion efforts. Despite the economic recession, world tourism is expected to continue growing. We must therefore make every effort to compete for a larger share of the international and regional tourist traffic. Hoteliers are well aware of the labour shortage which the industry will have to contend with in the next few years. They must re-double their efforts to trim their manpower levels through well-planned job enlargement and productivity programmes. I am heartened by the hotel industry's decision to take over from the VITB, the running of the Hotel and Catering School. The new Hotel Association Training Centre will be the second training centre run by industry. Full support will be given by the Skills Development Fund for its activities and I would urge other industries to emulate this excellent example. Computerization Following the setting up of the National Computer Board (NCB), computerization of the Civil Service has been accelerated. In the past year, new computer systems were installed in the Ministries of Labour, Environment and Finance (inland Revenue Department) bringing the number of Ministries and Government Departments with in-house computer systems to seven. Tenders for nine more computer systems have been called. By the end of 1983, 16 Ministries and Government Departments will have their computer systems installed. The Civil Service now employs over 350 computer professionals who are designing and implementing the various Government computerization projects. The private sector has responded enthusiastically to the government's encouragement of computerization. The National Computer Board has estimated that almost 2,000 firms in Singapore use computers in their operations. Another 1,800 firms have plans to computerize over the next three years. Computer clubs have proliferated in schools, community centres, workers' centres and even the SAF Reservist Association. They will be instrumental in preparing Singaporeans for the computer age. A focal point this year will be "Informatics '83", a week-long series of activities to highlight the importance of computer information technology and how it will affect Singapore. We have made good progress in manpower development for the information industry. We now have three computer training institutes as well as the Computer Science Department of the National University of Singapore. In addition to the Institute of Systems Science and the Japan Singapore Institute of Software Technology, a Centre for Computer Studies was recently set up at the Ngee Ann Polytechnic. The establishment of these three institutes in partnership with expertise from the United States, Japan and England will facilitate technology transfer from leading international companies to local professionals. These institutes will, in two or three years' time, be able to produce 600 to 700 new computer professionals annually. To ensure that the training of our computer professionals will meet international standards, the NCB has introduced a certification system to set national standards through public professional examinations. A key target in our plan is to make Singapore a software export centre by the end of the decade. To spur the development of the software industry, the NCB will be setting up the Software Technology Centre in the Kent Ridge Science Park to attract software development companies to establish operations in Singapore. The NCB is also looking into tax incentives and a financial assistance scheme to encourage companies to develop software packages for export. Manpower Development For many years now in the Budget Statement the Government had unfailingly emphasized the pivotal role that our manpower and training policies play in the restructuring of our economy. We are not alone in recognising the fundamental truth that our people are our greatest resource. Many countries are also investing heavily in the skills training of their citizens. The development strategy of many newly industrializing countries has shifted from the past cheap labour policy to one of cheap but high quality skills. We must therefore prepare ourselves to meet the competition. One of the inevitable realities that we will have to live with is that future industries in the developed world will be highly automated and have most of their operations computerized. To attract such industries to set up operations in Singapore, we must upgrade the numeracy and literacy skills of our workforce. Knowledge in basic mathematics and the English language is of paramount importance. More than half a million of our workers have less than a primary six education. Upgrading their basic numerate and literate ability will not be an easy undertaking. It will have to be done gradually without straining our teaching resources. Early this year a pilot scheme was launched under the Basic Education for Skills Training (BEST) programme. It involved 5,000 workers from 60 firms. The scheme is being run by the Continuing Education and Training (CET) Department of the VITB. A parallel pilot scheme will also be organized by the Ministry of Defence for 1,000 National Servicemen. Workers who complete the BEST programme can qualify for VITB courses to further upgrade their skills. Meanwhile, our tertiary and technical institutions are pressing ahead to train more professionals and highly skilled workers. In July 1982, the Nanyang Technological Institute (NTI) received the first intake of 580 students into its practiceoriented engineering courses. In February 1982 the German-Singapore Institute began its training of technicians and vocational instructors in production engineering with an initial intake of 103 students. The Computer-Aided Design and Computer-Aided Manufacturing (or CadCam) Training Unit has just started operations. It will provide training in the integration of computers in the design and production processes. The French-Singapore Institute will become operational later this year. It will train highly skilled technicians in the fields of electro-technology and electronics. Manpower training has to be carried out not only by the Government but more importantly by employers. In the current prolonged recession, companies may be tempted to reduce their commitment on training in order to trim down their costs. Not only will such action be a grave setback for Singapore but, in my view, it will also damage the ability of companies to survive beyond the present recession. Manpower training is like the old man in the Chinese fable who laid a stone each day in the river. The actions of the old man may appear foolish to the onlookers. But if the right stones are used and if there is perseverance, there will one day be a bridge which will span the river. Employers should therefore take advantage of the current slack in activity to improve the skills of the workforce. The Skills Development Fund will, I assure them, be more generous in providing financial assistance. Wages In many developed countries, it is becoming increasingly true that wages have lost one of its principal macro-economic functions, namely, to register the varying productivity levels in different industries, and in this way, to channel labour and training resources into the more dynamic sectors. This explains the remarkable fact that in these developed countries, the few sectors that have succeeded in registering good growth are experiencing difficulty in finding enough workers with the required competence, in spite of exceptionally high national unemployment. For Singapore, while our National Wages Council has served us admirably in the last 10 years, the continued use of the old-style NWC wage determination could in time lead to a similar erosion of the vital economic function of wages. In the middle of last year, the Government announced its intention to promote more direct bargaining between employers and unions. It is our hope that the switch to a new-style NWC will restore to wages its true role of reflecting the productivity performance of individual industries. Productivity Productivity performance last year was disappointing in comparison with recent years. The lower increase in productivity of 2.0% is, however, not surprising. Utilization of plant and machinery and hotel occupancy rates have fallen because of the recession. Part of the labour force is also working on short time. As our production capacity was not put to its maximum use, productivity must suffer. The set-back in productivity improvement is, however, only temporary and does not indicate a lack of progress in our economic restructuring. It should instead spur us on to improve our productivity in order that our exports can be more competitive in world markets in these recessionary times. In the last few years, automation and mechanization have proceeded at a rapid pace in manufacturing. However, non-industrial enterprises have not kept up with the pace set by manufacturing. Productivity improvement in the commercial sector has been slow. In fact, productivity in this sector, which includes retail trade, restaurants and hotels, fell by ,Q% and 2% in 1981 and 1982 respectively. As a result, while employment in manufacturing shrank in 1982, it increased substantially in the commerce sector. Although this has helped to maintain full employment, it portends trouble for us when the economy picks up and demand for labour increases. We may once again face a tight labour market which could undermine our economic restructuring. The problem could be worsened with the repatriation of foreign workers from non-traditional sources over the next few years. We must therefore encourage by appropriate tax incentives and other measures non-industrial enter- prises to automate and mechanize as rapidly as possible. Some economists have voiced the view that productivity improvement comes principally from the use of more capital equipment and from technological changes. According to this theory, human efforts can make only a small contribution. I do not intend to debate the correctness or otherwise of such views but it is pertinent to remember that machines have to be operated, monitored and controlled by human beings. It is the accretion of small contributions in human efforts that determines the competitive edge of nations. We therefore have to continue with the drive to inculcate better work attitudes and understanding of productivity among our workers. I am pleased to inform the House that we have made good progress last year in building up a productivity movement, through the efforts of the National Productivity Council. In November 1982, the first nation-wide Productivity Month was launched to create widespread awareness of the concept of productivity and to mobilize the support of managers, supervisors, union leaders and workers. To-date, a total of 341 Quality Control Circles (QCCs), comprising 2,582 workers in 44 organizations have registered with the National Productivity Board. This is a valuable beginning from which to build up an expanding network of QCCs in Singapore. Energy and Water After several years of oil price increases, 1982 was a year of relief for oil-consuming nations. The glut situation in the oil market which started in 1981 continued into the year and brought about stable prices. The oil market in 1983 is likely to be favourable for consumers. Lower oil prices will be of enormous help in the efforts to achieve world economic recovery and to keep inflation down. We must, however, not forget the oil crises of the Seventies. Singapore must continue to be efficient in the use of energy and eliminate wastage. In this regard, our performance in 1982 was not very encouraging. Although the growth in electricity demand dropped from 7 1/2% to 5.1%, the ratio of electricity demand growth to GDP growth increased from 0.75 in 1981 to 0.81 in 1982, reversing the trend of the last four years. While this reversal can be explained as the result of high consumption by the energy-intensive industries producing materials for the booming construction sector, we will have to continue paying close attention to our energy usage. Energy conservation will therefore have to be pursued with vigour. Henceforth, the Energy Conservation Centre in the PUB will become the focal point of all energy conservation promotional activities in Singapore. Our industries and other large energy consumers must be made more conscious of the need to conserve and to use energy efficiently. As we are not an energy producing country, we need to be highly efficient in our energy usage if we are to maintain our competitive edge in overseas markets. Efforts to look for alternatives to oil to meet our energy requirements are continuing. Last year I told the House that a possible alternative was natural gas which is found in substantial quantities in our neighbouring countries. Since then, we have agreed in principle with the Governments of Malaysia and Indonesia to pur- chase natural gas from their gas fields if the gas can be brought to Singapore economically and at a suitable time in the future. The oil crisis in 1979 forced us to devote considerable attention to the energy question in the last few years. However, a subject that deserves equal importance is our water supply. With economic growth and rising standards of living, our water consumption has been rising relentlessly. We have limited land in Singapore to set aside for water catchment areas. As in the case of energy, Singaporeans must learn to use water wisely and it is crucial that this be taken with the utmost seriousness. The PUB launched a Water Conservation Campaign in October 1981. The Board has since helped 2,850 large consumers to adopt conservation measures which have enabled them to reduce their consumption by 13%. It has also installed thimbles in many high-rise buildings, schools, hospitals, public toilets and other premises. Water consumption in these places has dropped by 12%. The reduction in water usage can be attributed partly to recession but the message that "water is precious" is undoubtedly starting to take root. To give renewed momentum to our water conservation drive, the PUB will launch another campaign this year in September. EDB and PUB are currently conducting a joint study on water usage in various establishments. It is hoped that we will soon be able to formulate a package of incentives and disincentives to promote water conservation in commercial and industrial enterprises. Construction The construction industry is responding well to our economic needs and to the call to improve its productivity. Last year, the industry was the fastest growing sector, expanding at a rate of 36% which was more than double that in 1981. Our public housing construction programme is now in full swing. 87,000 units are under construction, 66% more than the figure a year ago. Construction costs have stabilized as the supply of building materials improved. Singaporeans aspiring to own their own homes at a price within their means can look forward to have their hopes fulfilled. Private sector construction of hotels, offices, shopping complexes and factories is proceeding with confidence at a rapid pace. This will put us in a better position to take advantage of the upswing in the world economy when it comes. It will also ensure that future economic growth will be obtained without the inflationary pressures caused by an over-heated property market. With the rapid increase in output, the construction industry has improved its productivity. Last year, output per worker rose by 11.2%, a commendable result compared with the stagnation in 1981. There is room, however, for the industry to put in more effort to mechanize and upgrade its operations. The Government has provided various forms of assistance such as a loan scheme at concessionary rates of interest, accelerated depreciation and investment allowance. As contractors can take advantage of the schemes to build up their capital equipment, I hope to see further advances in productivity in the coming years. For the construction of the MRT, a 5% margin of preference has been given to local contractors or to joint ventures with at least 50% of local ownership. It is hoped that this incentive will enable Singapore firms to benefit from and absorb the technical and other skills of their foreign counterparts. The Ministry of National Development has made progress in its plans to build up a pool of permanent construction workers. Eighteen contractors are participating in the Core Contracting Scheme of HDB. These contractors are given a preferential margin of 5% in HDB tenders but are required to employ on a permanent basis highly skilled workers and professionals, promote skill training and adopt mechanized methods of construction. Plans for the Construction Industry Training Centre have been finalized and enrolment will begin in the latter part of 1983. Concluding Remarks on Economic Policy As I mentioned earlier, our economic performance in 1982 was due mainly to domestic factors. In fact, without the contribution from the construction industry economic growth would have been below 4 1/2%. We can rely on these domestic factors to sustain economic growth only in the short-term and only for so long as our financial resources and business confidence last. Ultimately, our small and open economy will go under if trade, manufacturing and our exports of services do not recover. To predict how the Singapore economy will fare this year is, in many respects, a much more difficult task than 1982. 1983 is a watershed year for the world economy and for Singapore. Will the Singapore economy be able to recover quickly from the 1982 slowdown as was the case in 1975? Or will we be heading for prolonged agony? In the last eight years, the Singapore economy has become more open as industries, financial institutions and hotels have increasingly plugged themselves onto the international grid. The health of the industrialized world is therefore even more crucial now for our economic well-being. The prospects of a world economic recovery in 1983 are, however, uncertain. There are increasing signs that the current recession in the industrialized world is not a typical cyclical downswing from which recovery follows as a matter of course. In recent years, many industries in the West have not taken advantage of fast changes in technology and structural rigidities have contributed to the loss of competitiveness. Western Europe appears to be in an entrenched state of recession and its economic health has been poor for the past three years. The United States remains the beacon of hope for the world as the will to compete in new areas of technology still appears to be strong in that country. Many forecasters see the US leading the world out of the economic recession by the middle of the year. However, at the end of last year, factories in the US were operating at a post-war low of 66% capacity. Every survey of investment decisions has revealed management plans to cut down on expenditure on plant and equipment. Such uncertainty does not augur well for a sustained recovery even if there are spurts of increased consumer spending. The mood of uncertainty in the international economic environment has never been more crippling. Major banks and international monetary institutions are grappling with the problem of rescheduling the vast debt payments of some developing countries. If economic recovery occurs on time, debtor countries will be better able to meet their rescheduled payments and banks which had over-lent can repair their balance sheets. However, protectionism can stall recovery or frustrate the export efforts of debtor countries. A price war among oil-producing countries, while good for consuming nations and for economic recovery, could send some of the oil-producers, which have over-stretched themselves, into default. And a default by any major borrowing country could send the world into a tailspin. The world's economy can be saved from disaster by determined, co-ordinated and sustained international co-operative effort. Whether such co-operation will be forth-coming remains to be seen. But the portents are ominous. The GATT Ministerial Meeting in November 1982 failed to arrest the rising tide of protectionism. Its disappointing outcome adds to the concern that the international cooperation necessary to avert the world's drift towards an economic disaster may be a forlorn hope. In these difficult times economic policy making is particularly difficult for small countries who have no influence on external conditions. We can only hope for the best and in the meantime prepare ourselves for the worst. Through our expenditure programme and the tax changes, which I will cover in Parts 11 and Ill of my Statement, we will try to maintain the momentum of economic growth and more importantly, ensure that our firms which are producing for export, or providing services to customers overseas, stand a fighting chance of winning new markets and maintaining their existing markets in the face of increasing competition. As individuals, our best contribution to Singapore's economic defence is to improve productivity at our workplaces. We have to tighten our belts and lower our expectations for wage increases in 1983. We should not fear the storm because we are well prepared. But we must expect rough going and, if we are unlucky, a drenching before the good times return.