Mr Deputy Speaker, Sir, I have a lot of things to say about this Budget but in view of the time constraint, I had better say all the good things first and leave the others to whatever time there may be, lest I would be misunderstood. The Minister for Finance should be congratulated for producing such a mild and harmless budget under so much economic constraints and traumas such as we have experienced over the past year. After last year's economic shocks, I thought we were in for a harsher and more painful budget this time. Yet I was surprised that we were again presented with a painless one. I mean, painless as far as I am concerned. I do not drink. I do not gamble and I do not smoke. So all the increases in tax on liquor, betting and tobacco which the Minister has implemented do not affect me at all. And for those who not only do not drink, gamble or smoke but can also produce babies, there is a bonanza of $20,000 to be had. No wonder the Acting Minister for Health is always beaming broadly whenever I see him because, as he has told someone, he is working hard at it. Well, that applies to the young ones in the front row as well. But I am afraid I cannot compete with them in this field. One has to admit one's limitations. So I have to forfeit the $20,000, tempting though it may be. But I am not complaining. Even if I could have what they call the second spring or gone through a rejuvenation programme or, as the rumours have it, the Women's Charter could be changed, I would still want to keep the same wife and have the same two children. Nothing more (I mean, wife) and nothing less. And that was decided between my wife and I long before the policy of Stop at Two. Although I am not a rabbit, neither am I a guinea pig. I would not want to subject myself to the Government's great demographic experimentation, of which I would have more to say later. What is also noteworthy about the Budget is that the Minister is generous enough to allow the 20% tax on telephone services to remain suspended for the time being and to postpone the 10% tax on electricity and gas consumption until next March. That will help a little. Of course, more will be better. But dare we ask for more? To have more would mean a bigger deficit, and a bigger deficit would lead to what the Minister calls a "permanent budget deficit" and this will give him the excuse to bring in the consumption tax which, like the Sword of Damocles, has been hanging over our heads ever since last year's great economic debate. So we have to tread very carefully and not give the Minister any excuse at all to do just that. Whatever the Minister may say or the Member for Radin Mas may say about the consumption tax, it is still my belief that it is inflationary and regressive. The Minister may try to soothe us by saying that he would go on a selective basis rather than a comprehensive one. The trouble is that once the tax is introduced, and when the Finance Minister is under siege at some future date, he can easily change it from a selective one into a comprehensive one. It is easy to say that one can avoid paying consumption tax by not consuming. But do you know what a comprehensive consumption tax means? In UK, if you want to have your house renovated, you have to pay 15% VAT on top of the contractor's price. If you have your water pipe burst or a blackout, you have to pay 15% VAT on top of what you pay to the plumber or the electrician. And if you are hungry, you go to a restaurant to eat, you pay 15% VAT; and when you die, there is also a 15% VAT on top of the undertakers' service, although you yourself may not have to worry about the payment. You may say that you can avoid paying the tax by not having your house renovated. But can you avoid not having your water pipe or your electrical fittings repaired? Can you avoid eating? And finally, can you avoid death? The Minister should be well informed enough to be aware that just a few days ago the Nakasone government in Japan lost a by-election in one of its safest seats over the issue of the sales tax. And the ruling LDP was split right in the middle. And they were only talking about 5% sales tax and later on negotiated down to 3%. And there was already this big hue and cry. How many per cent are we going to have if the Minister does get his way? As I have said it last time, if it is too high, politically we cannot afford it; and if it is too low, administratively we cannot afford it. The Japanese people are often very articulate and even violent over matters such as this. I am not suggesting that their sort of scenario will be transplanted to Singapore because we the people here are not like them. But why does the Minister not see it as a lesson and then think, think, and think again before doing it - (suo wei san si er hou xing). In view of the resistance and resentment which a tax of this nature will inevitably generate from the people, should the Minister not be more thoughtful about it and not, using his own words, "throw caution to the winds"? Somebody said in a forum in the Straits Times last week that the fact that the Minister did not slap the tax straightaway might reflect that the Minister was having a change of heart. If that is so, can the Minister say so and not leave us guessing? However, we are at least thankful and grateful to the Minister for not imposing it straightaway. He said he was going to set up a Division to look into the matter. If there is any red tape at all in the Ministry of Finance, long may this Division be bogged down by such red tape so that it will never see the light of day. I also sincerely hope that the $3.75 billion deficit is truly a deficit and not some sort of accountancy conjecture made up to justify the introduction of the tax. In fact, some people are very sceptical about the deficit figures and this was also mentioned in the Straits Times forum where it was pointed out that in the last fiscal year we were supposed to have $3 billion deficit but at the end of it, we turned out to have quite a substantial surplus. The same sentiment has been confirmed by no less an authority than the Member for Whampoa. Mr Deputy Speaker, Sir, I am not a magician or a juggler in figures. So I have no way to prove or disprove what was being said by both camps. I can only take the Minister's word on its face value and I see no reason why he should not tell the truth. When I earlier talked about a painless budget, it was actually a customary way of expressing an obligatory compliment. For those who know this Government well enough will understand that whatever pain there is in any budget, it is usually administered either before or after the budget but never during it. The whole process of the budget presentation is like preparing a patient who is about to go for a surgical operation. He isusually first given a jab of sedatives which will bring about a sense of euphoria and well-being over his whole body and very soon his anxieties and fears of pain will disappear. It is the same with this budget. Witness the increase in University students' tuition fees and the hospital prescription fees. But I must make it clear that I am not objecting to these increases. In the case of tuition fees, firstly, I think it is a good socialist principle - although we might have already forgotten about the meaning of that word now - that a privileged few should not be heavily subsidized at the expense of a large number of less privileged people, no matter how talented that group of people are. Secondly, the problem uppermost in the minds of most parents regarding their children's tertiary education is how to get a place in the University and tuition fee is always the secondary consideration. I am happy to see that the Government is considerate enough to allocate $100 million as study loans to the needy students. My only regret is that the Government should be so hard-headed and business-like in pegging the interest rate at prime rate. I think the right thing to do is to peg it at whatever rate the Government borrows from the CPF. I do not know at what rate the CPF is lending its money to the Government, but I presume it is much less than the banks. My argument for this is that prime rate can fluctuate according to the demand for capital. If everyone is crazy again to speculate in shares, gold, properties, or what-have-you, the rate can go rocket-high. We are only lucky that it has reached an all-time low of 5(r)% this year. But a prime rate of 11% or 12% is not unheard of, for instance, in 1984 and 1985. A large loan coupled with continous high prime rate for several years may cause the future graduate to end up with having greater liabilities than his assets, in which case he may not be eligible to sign the declaration of non-indebtedness as required by the Government Manual when he joins the Government service. But I presume the bureaucrats in the Ministry of Finance are farsighted enough to foresee this eventuality and amend the Manual long before it becomes necessary. Since the Government is in this generous and magnanimous mood, may I venture to suggest that this $100 million loan facility be also extended to students who study in approved and recognized universities overseas. This makes good economic sense as, firstly, students studying overseas can benefit from other people's subsidies. Secondly, the fact that they are studying overseas releases more valuable places in our University for other deserving students. And thirdly, with more students studying overseas, we will have wider cross-fertilization of knowledge and greater challenges among our student population. As regards the increase in prescription fees, the important thing is that the drug prescribed should be good enough to cure us. If, for instance, I had cancer and if there is a drug that can cure it, I would be happy to pawn my last shirt to get it. Now that we are promised that better and proprietary drugs would be used, I think the small increase is well worth it. However, I am afraid that the trend of modern medicine is such that it will probably cause more to find out what is wrong with us than what to do with us. I suppose they call it the "science of diagnosis". I suppose that is what you call progress. I remember when I was in London and once when I had a little fever and had to go to see a doctor, I was sent round to the various laboratories all over Harley Street to have blood tests, X-rays, etc, the bills of which went up to almost 100. After a few days of rushing around in Harley Street, I went back to see the doctor again and I was given a pre- scription chit and told to take two tablets prescribed therein, twice a day, and to go back to see him a week later. Meanwhile, I was charged another 25 for the doctor's consultation fee. Later, I found out that the tablet was actually a kind of analgesic though of a different brand name but was similar to Panadol, which I could have bought for 50 pence at the ordinary chemist's shop. But that was not the end of the story. Unlike doctors in Singapore, those in London do not give you medicine after they have seen you. They only give you a prescription chit and you have to run round to the nearest chemist or pharmacy to buy your medicine. In my case, since the medicine was sold on a prescription basis, the pharmacist charged me 2 for counting out the number of tablets prescribed. I suppose that is called "professional service rendered" and another 50 pence for the tablets. That is what happens in an advanced and developed country. I hope such things do not happen in Singapore. But who knows? Mr Deputy Speaker, Sir, since the Minister was rather vague about the prospect of the economy and has not told us in his speech what is in store for us in the coming year, whether it is going to be a good one or a bad one, the ordinary people will have to resort to their usual horoscopic skill to tell their fortunes and the prospects for their business. Usually it is to find out what animal is in reign during that year. You must not laugh and you must not under-estimate them. More than 3,000 years of experience and knowledge have been distilled and compressed into a great proverb book called Tung Su, the Chinese Almanac. Sometimes their predictions are more accurate than PhD economists and social scientists. Remember 1985? We were then imbued with a sense of euphoria and the planners were telling us that the fun society had finally arrived and we were in for some golden harvest. The then Finance Minister was painting a rosy picture of what good things were about to come. Then some tiresome people warned that we had better watch out because the Tiger year was approaching. And sure enough, bang. In 1986, we met with the year of reckoning and we went down the slippery slope from which we have still not recovered. For this year, the Rabbit year, the optimists of the Tung Su are saying that it is going to be a good one because according to them, the rabbit is an active animal and it breeds prolifically, something which may cheer the First Deputy Prime Minister. It foretells a year of active business and increasing profits. However, on the other side of the coin, are the pessimists. Like the professional economist, these amateur soothsayers also have two schools, one optimistic and the other pessimistic. The pessimists refer us to the Chinese story about a clever rabbit having three hideouts. So does it mean that this is a year of reckoning for dishonest contractors and crooked businessmen and forewarn that they had better quickly prepare three hideouts, one in Bangkok, one in Macau and another one in Taiwan where our laws cannot get at them? Whether it is so, I do not know and I could not care less because I am not a rabbit, I am not clever, and I do not need a hideout. But I am more interested in that part of the story about the rabbit being a fast breeder and hope that this will lend some help to the First Deputy Prime Minister's efforts to get the nation moving again in the matter of producing babies. I really do not know what has happened to our people. After so many years of glorious achievements, we are finally caught out to be low in productivity, not only in factories but also in bedrooms. I fully understand the new population policy and I support it. But unfortunately for me, the support can only be a verbal rather than a biological one. However, I am not happy with the way it is being promoted. Again, we are falling into the trap of too much regulating. We must remember that we are living in a society of human beings and we must treat it as such. In a matter like this, we can only give advice and not dish out regulations. It revolts against human nature to be told how many babies he or she can or cannot have. Anyone who has any self-respect would be unhappy to be told that he or she has a quota of not two, not four, but three babies to be filled. In the field of trade, we have been vehemently against the quota system, against GSP graduation and so on. And yet when it comes to producing babies we have a quota system. In the matter of the size of the family, I am in favour of letting people have their own initiative and decide on how many babies they should have. I am not a great admirer of Confucius. But at least in this matter about promoting a cause among the people, I agree with what he said in one of his quotations. He said, Min ke shi you zhi bu ke shi zhi zhi . There are a lot of controversies and interpretations about this quotation. And my own interpretation is this. If the people are intelligent and they understand your policy, you should let them have a free hand and take their own initiative. If they are not, you should educate them and make them understand. They will then respond more positively to what we want them to do. The First Deputy Prime Minister himself has said that once a departing diplomat had told him that Singaporeans lacked initiatives. They have to be told by the Government what to do about everything. That must be one of the shortcomings of our people as seen through other's eyes. I believe it also to be true and we must try to rectify it. And yet in this very personal matter about babies, the First Deputy Prime Minister is not letting the people have any initiative at all. He has to tell them how to produce and how many to produce. If we spoonfeed them at every step, how can we expect them to grow up and become an intelligent people? I am sure if we explain to them fully the dilemma we are in and the problems we are going to face, they will support the Government wholeheartedly and come out with more ingenious ideas and solutions of their own. I myself was very depressed when I saw the graphic about the man holding a tongkat getting bigger and bigger, meaning people above 60 getting more and more until the year 2020 when the figure becomes largest. There is little consolation to me that I am not in that group of tongkat holders yet. But the aging of the population is already felt in my own constituency. In the past when we held baby shows or dance parties in the community centre, there was great response. Now I do not remember having any baby shows there for the last 10 years. And the activities that attract the greatest response were those meant for senior citizens. What are we going to do with so many old people? They are unproductive, fragile, grumpy and needing so many young people to support them. I understand that in the Turf Club, when a horse becomes lame or when its useful life is over, it is shot and then its carcass is fed to the animals in the Mandai Zoo. They call it humane destruction. But it would be inconceivable and we cannot do this in a human society. Or can we? I am not so sure. I cannot see what is going to come in the next 10 years, let alone in the year 2020. What was considered inconceivable in 1970 has become conceivable today, and that is only a lapse of 15 or 16 years. So what is considered inconceivable today could well be conceivable in, say, 20 or 30 years later, is it not? Fortunately or unfortunately, I would not be there to see it. I do not know how the magic figure of three has been produced. We were told that it was a result of statistics, charts, projections and so on. But as I have said earlier in 1985 about charts and projections, they can lead us up the rosy path but they can also plunge us into great abyss. I am not a great believer in statistics and charts. But if we must have figures to make our speeches sound more authoritative and irrefutable, then I shall do so by quoting from the latest issue of the Monthly Digest of Statistics in order to soothe the nerves of our panic-stricken Ministers. The First Deputy Prime Minister has conveniently chosen the 1986 figure to show that there is a shortfall of 14,000 to 15,000 babies. Of course, it is true that in 1986 we had 39,400 babies as against 42,484 babies in 1985. And there is a net loss of 3,084 babies, if my arithmetic is right. But does he know or has his analyst taken into consideration the fact that 1986 was a Tiger year and what implications this must have in a population which is predominantly Chinese? If we look at the figures of live births year by year, we will see that from 1982 we have been having an average of 41,000 babies every year. In fact, from 1976 onwards, the figures have been increasing every year. Why is it that in all those years nobody sounded any alarm? Why has nobody tried to find out how we came to be short of 3,000 in 1986? To me, the explanation is simple and the figures are all there in that book for everyone to see. The shortfall, in fact, came from the Chinese section of the population. While the other races maintained more or less the same number of babies in 1985 and 1986, the Chinese had 29,355 babies in 1985 as against 26,108 babies in 1986, a net loss of 3,247 to be exact. Why did the Chinese produce less in 1986? You must ask the politicians and not the statisticians because the Chinese believe that although Tiger boys are good material for soldiers Tiger girls are definitely out. They believe that Tiger girls are difficult to handle and to live with. In fact, I have friends who are Tiger girls and are married to husbands of the Bull years, and they actually refrain from eating beef because they believe that Tiger girls who eat beef may bring harm to their Bull husbands. So is there anything worse than a Tiger girl who may eventually become a graduate? It has already been drummed into their ears day in and day out that a graduate girl is so difficult to get rid of, I mean in the matrimony way. So they are not taking any chances at all. If you look down the column of births for the Chinese and compare the monthly breakdown figures, it will become more interesting and revealing. In January 1986 the figure was an all-time high of 2,808 babies. But in the next month, February 1986, the beginning of the Tiger year, the figure plunged to an all-time low of 1,808, exactly 1,000 babies less. Do you call it coincidence or good planning? If you look at the number of marriages registered by the Chinese for the years 1985 and 1986, you will also see the same pattern. Less Chinese were prepared to get married in 1986. The figures are 16,747 in 1985 and 13,824 in 1986, about 3,000 less couples. So what does all this prove? It proves that no doubt 1986 was a bad year but it was also an exceptional one. But all is not lost. When it comes to the more auspicious years, such as the Dragon year or like this year, the Rabbit year, we may even have a baby boom and all our worries will be over. In the last few days I have been thinking very hard over ways and means to help the First Deputy Prime Minister out of the population dilemma. My thoughts first directed me to the baby boom years of 1954-1958. I wanted to find out why we had a baby boom then, and not now. I thought naively that if we could re-enact some of the conditions prevailing in those days, then we might be able to induce at least a mini-boom, if not a real one, and that might help. However, after some reflection I decided that it was a non-starter. Because not only can we not push the clock back, but do we want the conditions prevailing in those depressed and tragic years to come back to us? First of all, we must compare what we did have or did not have in the 1950s to what we do have or do not have now. For a start, we did not have television in the 1950s, which is a plus point as far as producing babies is concerned. This condition cannot be re-enacted now because the whole population is already addicted to television, and what is more, we also have the videotape machine which can be played right after midnight, which makes things worse. Then in the 1950s there were riots, strikes and general instability. And in those circumstances people tended to stay at home at night. There is no prize for guessing what people would do when they stay at home at night without television to watch. But do we want those conditions to come back to us? Then there was massive unemployment. Thousands of young men and women were wandering about the streets aimlessly and when boys and girls without anything better to do met, you again can easily guess what would happen. We did not need any SDU then. The matchmaker then has almost become an extinct species. And what is it that we have now that we did not have in the 1950s? We now have electronic factories and garment factories in which large numbers of young girls are engaged and enclosed for at least eight hours a day without any chance of meeting the boys. What is more, there is also the problem of the third shift. When they get home, they are usually too tired to go out to meet the boys. Also we now have army camps which we did not have in the 1950s, and they cordon off large numbers of young boys without giving them any opportunity of meeting the girls. They can go home in the weekends but marriage can hardly be struck within that short period. Cupids do not work so fast. Girls can work third shifts but cupids don't. They cannot aim their arrows so fast. So what are we going to do about it? Dismantle the factories and the army camps? We might as well dismantle ourselves. This led me to think of the other alternative. According to the First Deputy Prime Minister there are nearly 20,000 marriageable and biologically productive women who are not married. If we can make them produce just one baby each, then all our talk about shortfalls and crises will be over. But the problem is: why are they not married? The finger is always pointed at us, the male chauvinist pig. But I think there are always two sides to a coin. It is true that some men may be reluctant to marry some women whose academic qualification is higher than theirs. But the women themselves too are choosy and they have some sort of complex. While an ordinary man may have no hesitation in marrying a woman whose academic qualification is lower than his, a woman often refuses to marry a man whose qualification is lower than hers. I once asked a Secondary 4 girl whether she would take a boy who has not completed his Secondary 4 education to be her husband, and she said, "Very definitely no." I also asked an A-level girl whether she would take a Secondary 4 boy to be her husband, and she said, "Not really." But when I came to an older and unmarried graduate girl, I dared not pose the question because I was afraid that she might misunderstand me and think that I was trying to propose to her. But whether or not I posed the question, I suppose the answer would still be the same as the other girls. That is why I think the SDU is doing the wrong thing. They thought that if they brought the graduate boys and the graduate girls together, they will somehow hit it and that they will be married happily ever after. But judging on the fact that more girls are getting into the University than boys every year, they are really fighting a losing bat- tle. It is like trying to fill a tub with water when it has a hole at the bottom. While we must try to remove the fear of the boys marrying upwards, we must also try to remove the girls' inhibitions about marrying downwards. If a graduate boy marrying a Secondary 4 girl can produce a brilliant baby, there is no reason why a graduate girl marrying a Secondary 4 boy cannot have the same result. I have a suggestion as to how to get these 20,000 unmarried but marriageable women on the baby-producing track. The suggestion may sound unorthodox but it is not unthinkable and neither is it unmentionable. In fact, it has been mentioned by no less a personality than the Prime Minister himself. It is called single-parenthood. What is single-parenthood? I am afraid many of our people cannot grasp the idea because it is a completely new life-style and new phenomenon from the West. A sweet young girl of a reporter from the Lianhe Zaobao, when reporting the Prime Minister's speech, explained to her readers in this way: Single-parenthood means that if an unmarried woman wishes to remain single she can do so, and in order to avoid the loneliness of old age she can adopt other people's child. I was laughing my head off with such naive and innocent interpretation. But I do not blame her. The trouble with the Chinese language is that it has no neuter noun as "parent". It has to join the characters "fu" meaning father and the character "mu" meaning mother to form the word "fu-mu" and use it to equate the English word "parent". Therefore, they have trouble in translating the word parenthood with only one sex, and it becomes rather difficult for them to conceive and understand parenthood with only a father or a mother. However, single-parenthood in the Western context means divorced men or women keeping and bringing up their children separately. It also means unmarried mothers, who cannot decide who their babies' fathers are, bringing up their babies instead of aborting them. It also means unmarried women conceived babies from men who are other women's husbands and, instead of aborting their babies, they bring them up under their maiden name. But these are not the kind of single-parenthood I have in mind. To promote them would mean encouraging promiscuity and extra-marital affairs among the people and I am against it. I hope the TV will show it tonight because my wife will be watching it. However, extra-marital affairs are nothing new in oriental societies and even Confucius himself, someone whose behaviour we are emulating and whose teachings we are spreading, had been found to be involved in one. At some appropriate occasion I will produce documentary evidence and quotations found in ancient Chinese books to prove it. But right now, let us return to our procreation budget. My idea of single-parenthood is different. There now exists techniques which can cause the woman to conceive without so much as a touch from a man. Do you know what is it called? It is called artificial insemination. It is very safe, very convenient and can be easily administered. Furthermore, it can solve problems for women who have complexes. For instance, there are women who are born man-haters and there are also those who harbour great contempt for men, and this technique will enable them to have babies without getting near a man. To this end, I suggest that a sperm bank be set up by the Ministry of Health and unmarried women of the category mentioned above should be encouraged to apply for the service, free of charge, of course, and officials should not ask too many questions. To make the scheme a success, the Ministry of Finance should consider giving another incentive, say, $10,000, to those women who are bold enough to take that first step. And to ensure that we should have good quality and brilliant babies, we should insist that only males who are PhDs or First-Class Honours graduates may be invited to be donors. Our immediate problem with this scheme is that the Vatican may view us with disgust and despair but we are in unusual times and so unusual measures have to be adopted. Anyway, we have been doing a lot of things. For instance, abortion, which they view with contempt. So one more misdeed will not take us any further away from heaven. However, our long-term problem will be how to legitimize these babies. First of all, the SDU should be expanded to cater for counselling of parents in this category. Then we should help by changing or amending some of the laws. For instance, the Registrar of Births and Deaths should allow the baby to be registered in the mother's family name and not insist that the column giving the father's particulars be filled. Then the Women's Charter may have to be reviewed. But since we do not have so much time, may I be allowed to stop here.