MAIN AND DEVELOPMENT ESTIMATES OF SINGAPORE FOR THE - FINANCIAL YEAR 1ST APRIL, 1988 TO 31ST MARCH, 1989
Sir, the Member for Whampoa has raised a range of subjects concerning the management of the Singapore economy in times of uncertainty, and whether internationally growth will continue or protectionism will prevail. I will touch on a few of these points. Others will be picked up later on in the debate. On protectionism, he asked about the progress of the trade Bills in the US. We watch developments in Congress the way meteorologists follow typhoons on satellite pictures. You can see it spinning around, but you can never know whether it is suddenly about to change direction and hit you some place quite unexpected. One thing we can say watching this typhoon is that recently it has been losing strength. You may have heard of Mr Gephardt and the Gephardt Amendment to the Trade Bill, which would have been extremely chilling on world trade. Mr Gephardt is a Presidential candidate. His boast was: I will move this amendment now and I will sign it next year as President Gephardt. The Japanese are much more concerned than we are because they have much more at stake. In Super Tuesday, Mr Gephardt did very badly. On Wednesday after that, I am told, the Japanese consumed a great deal of sake in celebration. We watch, we lobby, but all we can get is an early warning. As for GSP, as I have explained, it has happened. We do not cry over spilt milk. It is a loss. We work hard to make good by being more competitive, by diversifying our markets, by moving into more sophisticated products, where the GSP makes less difference, because our competitors are not the countries still enjoying GSP, the development countries. I think we will survive. Finally, how do we cope with instability in the world economy? I am a bit hesitant about answering this question because the ability of the Member for Whampoa to paint gloomy scenarios far exceeds my ability to invent instant solutions to them. But I think we are in a fairly well-prepared and secure position. We have got over the recession of 1985. We have built up our infrastructure. Which is in place. We have invested in our manufacturing capacity. We have diversified into services. We have got new markets, high volume of trade, large savings tucked away. What can be done has been done. An adverse wind cannot be wished away but we will see it through. One thing we can do to minimize its effects is to pay a little more attention to regional cooperation. The Member asked about cooperation with our neighbours, Malysia and Indonesia, particularly Johor. It is a logical progression to our economic development because, as we grow and as we move more activities offshore, there will be many linkages which can be developed between our economy and our neighbouring economies, provided the will is there, which will be good for both. Just take the example of Malaysia. The linkages between us are substantial. In terms of investment, we have invested $1.4 billion ringgits in Malaysia up to the end of 1986. Last year, we invested $135 million ringgit. This is according to Malaysian statistics. We are now one of the largest foreign investors in Malaysia. In fact, in the State of Johor we are the largest one. So we have already moved offshore. Likewise in trade the volume has gone up. Last year, it was $18 billion, up a whole quarter from the year before. In tourism, Singaporeans need an outlet. They need a place to go and enjoy themselves. One and a third million Singaporeans visited Johor last year. We are the largest single source and a very major component of the Johor economy. That is just Singaporeans. In addition, many Singaporeans, foreigners who visit Singapore also make trips across the Causeway. Last year 350,000 tourists did that. So the links exist and they can be strengthened. In terms of investments, I think there can be more investments in industries which are land/labour-intensive. We are short of land, whether it is to rear tropical fish or poultry, or whether it is to establish industries which need a large factory space. Johor has land available. If the environment and the mood is right, our factories can go there. The Malaysians know this and they actively promote Singapore investments in Malaysia. In fact, the Malaysian Trade and Industry Minister, Datin Rafidah, is here today speaking at an investment seminar on Malaysia's business prospects and investment opportunities. We are happy. We encourage that. Similarly with trade. The volume is up, and the balance of trade is in Malaysia's favour. We buy much more from them than they buy from us. We do not mind. We are happy because it is business, and so long as they are happy, I think the volume can grow. For example, sand - a small item, but valuable. We buy sand from Johor. We need it for construction, for reclamation, for road works. On 1987, we imported $28 million of sand, stones and gravel from Peninsular Malaysia, mostly from Johor. This is nearly three quarters of our total import of sand. We can buy more. Our demand for sand is, as economists would say, "highly elastic". In other words, if it is cheaper, we can buy much more because we can use it - by expanding our reclamation projects, and bringing forward our plans. The quantities can expand many fold provided, of course, there is willing buyer, willing seller, and the price is right. Similarly for tourism, the potential is there. We enjoy seafood. We enjoy beach resorts. Johor with its offshore islands - Tioman, the east coast islands - offers a lot more than Sentosa can possibly offer, despite all the things we are going to put into Sentosa, which we will tell you about later on. It can be a useful outlet for us. Similarly for tourists, if we can market Singapore with Johor together as one combined package, that means there is more reason for tourists to stay longer in this region, which means more nights in the hotels, more business for us, and more people coming, because visiting only Singapore means a limited range of interests can be catered for. And even if people visit Johor and stay a night in Johor instead of in Singapore, that still expands our market, so we do not mind. We have been cooperating with Johor in tourism promotion. For example, we have been advertising overseas, cost-sharing basis, in US, in Scandinavia. I think this will continue and more can be done. But at the bottom of it, as I have said several times, it all depends on the political climate. The closer our ties are, the more smoothly projects can be launched and the more areas for cooperation will be uncovered. If the atmosphere is a troubled one, even good ideas may not be able to fly. I think the Malaysian government understands this, and certainly the Johor government also understands this. There was a report in the Straits Times, 5th March - some speeches which were made in Johor during the Tanjong Puteri state by-election when Dr Mahathir came down to campaign and he said: 'Business would suffer and tourists would not come if there is tension in the country.' And since tension has gone down and business has improved, tourists from Singapore are returning. So the connection is clear. Similarly, the Culture and Tourism Minister Datuk Sabbaruddin Chik, said 2 million Singapore tourists visited Malaysia last year, mostly by way of the Causeway, and the large number of visitors showed a close ties that existed between the two countries. And the warm reception given by Johor Baru residents to Singapore tourists would directly help to promote the tourist sector. Similarly, the Mentri Besar, Haji Muhyiddin, who said: 'Good bilateral relations with Singapore had helped the Johor economy. Singapore is the largest investor in Johor.' So I am confident that we will make further progress in economic cooperation with Malaysia, particularly with Johor. It is not the only strategy we have for dealing with uncertainty and recession and a troubled world, but I think it is one worthwhile to remember from time to time.