MAIN AND DEVELOPMENT ESTIMATES OF SINGAPORE FOR THE - FINANCIAL YEAR 1ST APRIL, 1989 TO 31ST MARCH, 1990
Sir, I intend to present a general reply to the points which have been raised by the speakers so far. I will leave it to my Minister of State and Senior Parliamentary Secretary to deal with the details later. Mr Bernard Chen and the others have raised two major issues. One is the overall thrust of our economic policy, on particularly foreign workers and other resources, and the second one is MTI's role in watching out for the economic implications of various Government policies which, at first blush are not MTI's responsibility, like transportation or land policy. I will deal with them separately. In our overall economic policy, this year we face two major outstanding decisions. One, the foreign workers levy, scheduled to go to $250 in July. Two, CPF, scheduled to be increased by up to 4% in July. These policy changes are bound to affect our business climate - costs and competitiveness. We have explained our rationale. MTI does not want to increase costs unnecessarily. We know how important it is to preserve our competitiveness vis-a-vis the other NICs, and increasingly vis-a- vis other countries in Southeast Asia like Thailand. Our economy is near full-employment. When resources are tight, prices go up. Rentals are going up for office space, for factory space. Nothing to do with the Government, nothing to do with JIC, but supply is exceeding demand. It is the same for hotel rooms. To some extent, it is the same for labour. We have targetted for 4-6% growth. Mr Chew just now suggested moving offshore as one way to exceed 4-6%. That is so. But within Singapore, our gross domestic product cannot pick up by much more than that, not without very substantial structural changes in industry, commerce, the whole economy. Therefore when we push beyond those limits, prices and wages have to go up. Fortunately, for us, our competitors face similar problems. I have some statistics here. Last year, wages in the other NICs increased sharply. Not counting the exchange rate, in Taiwan last year wages went up 11%, year before that, 10%; in South Korea, last year wages went up 21%; year before that, 12%; in Hong Kong, wages went up 10%; in Singapore last year we went up 9%. Because their costs are also going up, so far our competitiveness has been maintained. It is a little bit hazardous because we are all getting more expensive and at some stage we may all become simultaneously uncompetitive. I think we should watch our position and preserve a conservative relativity. The difference between us and them, particularly Korea and Hong Kong, is that when their costs are too high, they depreciate their currency and use inflation to erode the value of workers' wages. So in Hong Kong last year, although wages went up by 10%, inflation was 8%; and South Korea, last year wages went up by 21%, inflation was 7%. So part of it is virtual. It is nominal, not real. I think if we did that in Singapore, all the labour MPs will be up in arms, justifiably so, and a great deal of confidence will be eroded. So we have to be more careful than the other NICs. Because the Government is concerned about business costs, therefore in this year's budget, the Minister for Finance has been very cautious not to load more burdens onto the private sector than he absolutely needs to. In particular, we lowered the corporate tax by one percentage point from 33% to 32%. Some Members considered that derisory, but it is not peanuts. We lifted the tax on PUB water bills for commercial accounts. When we impose taxes on utilities and on Telecoms charges, we did it only for the domestic bills, not for the business accounts. So business costs were not affected. This is a deliberate move. On schedule, we should have just let the property tax rebate expire this year, and restore the rate to 23%. It would have meant $200 million more for the Government. But we decided better to postpone this for a year, extend the rebate and then instead of going back to the old rate of 23% - set the new rate at 16%. That is another way in which costs have been contained. But the Government can do so much. Beyond that, it is up to the businesses to upgrade, automate their operations. Labour is short, will always continue to be short. Nothing the Government is going to do will change that. They have to invest overseas, shift part of their operations offshore, exploit opportunities in the surrounding region where there is more manpower, more land, fewer resource constraints. The Government will then help them to do that. Co-investment is a more difficult matter. On a larger scale, as Mr Chew suggested, it is feasible, but then money is not the problem. You can own the same amount of cash as a multi-national corporation is worth. But to turn that cash into a viable MNC, you need the technology, the management, the marketing, the whole network. We need to find a way to buy into companies overseas which are relevant to us and which we can then piggyback on. The Government companies are on the look out for this, especially the Sheng-Li companies. The Minister for Finance has given them the go-ahead. But, you know, Mr Chairman, the mergers and acquisitions market in America is a cut-throat business. There are not very many cheap buys going for a song. And if we go in, we must be very sure of what we are doing, so that we do not find ourselves in competition with bandits or one of the other large takeover operations and find our shirts taken off our backs. These are the constraints. How much will we grow this year? MTI has forecast 5-7%. We have not revised the forecast. In the last quarter of 1988 and in January this year, there has been some slowdown. We are watching it with some concern. We are not sure whether it will continue or whether it is a temporary minor fluctuation. Some of the electronic companies which were retrenching only a few months ago are again hiring workers. So perhaps it is temporary. If so, 5-7% is sound. It depends really on how the US economy will perform. You will notice, by the way, that we set the limits for purposes of the performance bonus at the end of the year at 5-8%, rather than 5 to 7%, to give us a bit more margin for flexibility before we have to revise the variable bonus. But that does not mean we are expecting the economy to do better. We are just making a safe, wide estimate. There are several principal questions for MTI to consider this year. First, should we continue with a second-tier of the foreign workers' levy ($250) in July? If you ask me now, my view is: almost certainly yes. I would still say yes, even if the foreign worker population starts to decline before July. The reason is unless we can bring the foreign worker population down, by the time economy slows down again, to more or less where it was in the last recession, otherwise we will have no expansion room in the next recovery. I do not know how large the upper limit for foreign workers is. We have said 20-25% of the workforce. I think that is already pushing the limits. I am not sure we want to reach that. But we do know that we cannot have it indefinitely racking up: down half, up one; down half, up one; increasing, indefinitely. So every time there is a recession, it must be come back down, not quite to zero but to a lower base. Then every time there is a recovery, we have that expansion room and that possibility of rebounding. For that to happen, we have to start to bring the numbers down. Therefore, even if the numbers start to decline this year, I am strongly inclined, and I think the Minister for Labour is of like mind, to proceed with the second phase of the foreign workers' levy. Also, Mr Chairman, structurally, it is not wise for our manufacturing sector to the so heavily dependent on foreign workers. We should not be attracting to Singapore companies which can only operate if they are given a large complement of foreign workers. Companies whichcome to Singapore must assume they are able to depend on Singaporean workers. In fact, some multi-nationals have told me that, as a matter of principle, they do not hire foreign workers, because if they do, their headquarters will be asking them why they are in Singapore. For the economy as a whole, to have one-third or more of manufacturing workers non-Singaporean really begs the question: What is the purpose of all this economic activity if the benefits do not go to Singaporeans? A company comes in, gets pioneer status, so it pays no tax; it hires non-Singaporean workers, so no Singaporean are created. So what is this in aid of? It cannot continue. Therefore, the second-tier foreign workers' levy,barring the very unexpected, will proceed. Should we increase the employers' CPF by 4% this year in July? We have not made a final decision. The Government has said it depends on the first quarter economic performance. We will have to decide probably within a month and a half. But, again, my personal view - provided this CPF rise is seen as part of the total wage increase this year, I am in favour. The reason is this. Putting up the CPF 4% on the employer side and reducing it by 2% on the employee side will bring the overall rate up from 36% to 38%. Our target is 40%. If we can do it once this year, and once more next year, we have achieved our long-term target of 40%. It is within the foreseeable future. If we do it much more slowly, up 1% this year, from 36 to 37%, next year to 38%, year after to 39%, then 40%, it will take four years to reach our long-term target. Many things can happen. We might have another recession, we might have other problems, we might have to adjust the rates again. The plan may come to nought. Therefore, if I were a worker, I would prefer to make this adjustment these two years. Even if it means 2% less take -home pay this year, let us get this CPF adjusted, fixed done, rather than have it lingering over us for a long period of time. After that, we can move on to other things. I believe this is also the view of the unions. I think they understand that this is all part of one wage package, and what we put into CPF is really money which would otherwise have gone into take-home pay. On that understanding, I would be in favour of proceeding with a larger CPF rate increase. We will decide in one and a half months, and make a proper announcement then. Thirdly, wages. In the aftermath of the revision to the government salaries last week, I am sure everybody is asking himself: how much will private sector salaries go up? Some of the MPs raised this point just now. I would say that it depends on the individual companies. Let me reiterate the reminder that the Government revision is a "catch-up" adjustment, to make up for seven years of falling behind. It is not an adjustment for this year against last year, and therefore it is not an adjustment which should be followed in its quantitative numbers across the board. But if the private sector is to emulate anything of that adjustment, then I think it should emulate the emphasis on packaging it as a variable wage revision - depends on your performance, depends on economic performance, depends on promotions. The base wage is kept to a small revision. What should the private sector number be? They have to settle that themselves. But that principle of flexibility is a sound one, and we hope that the Government has set the example for the rest. Now, on the role of MTI, and looking at Government policies from the economic point of view. MTI's mission is to promote growth of the national wealth through sustained and stable economic growth. We set the broad directions and the strategies, both for the public sector and the private sector. We undertake the role of a macro-economic planner and manager. And we try to identify which policies will help Singapore to grow, which policies may have been outdated and may lead us to difficulties downstream. We are also directly responsible for some operating agencies which are closely connected with economic activities: trade, industry, economic infrastructure, things like JTC, industrial estates, energy, utilities, tourism. We have to coordinate the implementation of policies by these statutory boards. Increasingly, we have to remember that Government policies, even in areas which are not directly economic, can sometimes have large economic effects, because they cause distortions or externalities. When we evaluate alternative policies, the Government must consider their economic impact. The hidden costs which they have must be uncovered, estimated, and taken into account. The Member for Leng Kee just now gave an example of an externality. It is a big word, but the idea is simple. If you pollute the environment, you do not pay the cost but all your neighours pay the cost, because they suffer your black smoke. That is an externality: you are doing it to them. If you drive into a traffic jam, your own journey takes five minutes longer, but because you have contributed to the traffic jam, everybody else's journey also takes five minutes longer. You have imposed total delays on other car drivers a hundred to a thousand times larger than what you yourself suffer - that is an externality. When that happens, we have got some way to fix it. Up to now, we have not systematically examined the economic implications of our other non-economic policies. It was not an urgent need, because up to now, the effects have been manageable. Our economy was still young, still growing, and not very tightly coupled, so we could just let each sector progress on its own. But now that the economy is getting more complex and the GDP is growing more slowly, we have to pay closer interest to coordinating of these policies to minimize inefficiencies which will otherwise arise. The economic input must be considered. It will not always be overriding, because there may be overriding political or social considerations. We may decide to proceed with a policy despite the economic cost. But if we do so, at least it will be with our eyes open. One example is land transport. We will be discussing this at great length under MCI later. The basic need is to keep the roads congestion free, because traffic jams are very expensive. That is obvious. Beyond that, it is not so obvious. What do we do? Should we ration? Should we price? If we are going to price, what are we going to charge you for? Should we charge you for owning a car? Should we charge you for using the vehicle, whether it is a car or not a car? Should we charge you for petrol, on grounds that using petrol probably means driving along the road? Or should we use a mixture of all these policies? How do we control traffic most effectively? If we are going to tax the road users, how do we structure the tax, so that for a given amount collected we can reduce congestion by the maximum? Not the other way round as people have sometimes alleged, for a given amount of traffic control, how do we get the maximum amount of tax? Should we go for higher ALS, higher ARF, or what? These are questions which will benefit from an economic analysis. Similarly with land. Take for example HDB's pricing of flats. In the past, the first priority was to provide everybody with a house, because people urgently needed houses to live in. Flat rate pricing, queue up, first-come-first-served. Same flat, wide range of localities, same price. Sometimes the same flat can cost almost the same whether it is in the city or far out in a new town. So the person who is lucky enough to be allocated a flat in town, for which of course there is a long queue, is being cross subsidized by the person who is unlucky enough to be forced to buy a flat which is far out of town but costs the same. Or if we take it within one housing estate, same price for all the flats. The one next to the MRT station is benefitting at the expense of the one next to the dustbin. Why should that be? Is that fair? Maybe it was administratively convenient when we needed to build 50-60,000 flats a year. We just made sure each family got one; rough justice. But now that practically everybody has a flat, should we not be more sensitive in our pricing of land, of flats, of locations, so that whoever buys a flat pays a fair price? I think we should. HDB is already doing this. The process can be carried further and I believe an economic approach is relevant. The Ministry of Trade and Industry cannot do all this by itself, because each one of these is a major policy and involves many other Ministries of the Government. But we will review these policies together with the Ministries involved, in the same way that the Ministry of Finance reviews all policies which have financial implications. MOF is not the expert in every subject, but if anybody wants to draw on the exchequer, MOF is consulted. To do a proper economic impact statement, we will have to assess the fiscal implications of a project, the effects on Government revenue or expenditure. We must examine its effect on liquidity; are we withdrawing money from the economy or pumping it in? We have to examine the impact on the cost of living, and on business costs. We must know the economic efficiency of the proposals: What distortions can it cause, how will it impinge on other sectors? MTI has set up an Economic Policy Review Committee (EPRC) chaired by my Minister of State, Mr Mah Bow Tan. The Committee includes representatives from the main Ministries involved, ie, MCI, National Development, Finance and Labour. The EPRC will be the forum for the Government policies to be thoroughly reviewed from an economic point of view. And, Mr Speaker, we hope that over the next few years, as we do this systematically, we will be able to reap the benefits in higher growth and in better overall performance.