The text
11.37 am 1 Ms Ellen Lee asked the Minister for Foreign Affairs (a) whether the existing water agreement signed between Malaysia and Singapore allows for Malaysia to raise the price of raw water sold to Singapore at any time before its expiry in 2061; (b) if not, what is the reason for the Johor state government to make this proposal now; and (c) how will bilateral relations between Singapore and Malaysia be impacted if Singapore rejects the proposal for a price increase.
11.37 am Mdm Speaker, Ms Ellen Lee has asked whether Malaysia had the right to review the price of raw water sold to Singapore. We have stated our position on this issue and also conveyed it officially to the government of Malaysia on several occasions.
11.37 am As I had mentioned in my COS speech yesterday, neither Malaysia nor Singapore can unilaterally change the price of raw water sold to Singapore. Indeed, neither party can unilaterally change any of the terms of the 1962 Water Agreement. This is no ordinary agreement. It was guaranteed by both governments in the Separation Agreement in 1965, which was registered with the United Nations. Both countries have to honour the Water Agreement and the guarantee in the Separation Agreement. Any breach of the Water Agreement would also be a breach of the Separation Agreement and of international law.
11.37 am Singapore's position is that Malaysia has lost its right to review the water price. The Water Agreement provided for the review after 25 years. Specifically, there was a right to review the price jointly in 1987. However, Malaysia consciously chose not to review the price.
11.37 am It had good reasons for this. Malaysia benefits greatly from the current pricing arrangement. Johor buys 16 million gallons per day of treated water back from us at 50 cents per 1,000 gallons. Fifty cents per 1,000 gallons is only a fraction of the true cost to Singapore of treating the water, which includes building and maintaining the entire infrastructure of the water purification
11.37 am Page: 8
11.37 am plants.
11.37 am Malaysian leaders have acknowledged that Malaysia benefits from the current arrangement and explained that, indeed, that was why Malaysia made a carefully considered decision not to review the water price in 1987.
11.37 am Then Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said in 2002 that Malaysia did not revise the water pricing when it was due because they thought Singapore would also revise the price of treated water supplied to Malaysia. One can refer to the Bernama report on 11 October 2002.
11.37 am Then Johor State Assembly Speaker, Zainalabidin Mohd Zain, said that the Johor government had not made a mistake in not pressing for a review in 1986, and said, "There was no point in doing so because Johor was dependent on Singapore for its treated water supply, and Singapore would have also increased its price of treated water sold to Johor." This was from New Straits Times, 3 July 2002.
11.37 am Under the agreement, after Malaysia decided not to review the water price in 1987, there is no longer any right to review the price of water. Had Malaysia exercised the right to review the water price in 1987, Singapore might then have made different investment decisions to develop Johor River, for instance, that Linggiu Dam project of 1990.
11.37 am In the event Malaysia chose not to review the water price in 1987 and, on that basis, Singapore then took several actions which also benefited Malaysia. This included building the Linggiu Dam at the cost of over $300 million, which has increased the yield of the Johor River, and enabled both Johor and Singapore to draw water from it during this dry season.
11.37 am Our position on this issue is well-known to Malaysia. We have stated this publicly and also conveyed it to the Malaysian government, including at the highest levels. The Malaysian government understands the position. Foreign Minister Anifah Aman said on 17 February 2014 that, "an agreement is an agreement. When there is an agreement, we will honour the agreement. If there is any need for review, we will forward it and if their response is positive, we will start talking".
11.37 am We welcome the Foreign Minister's statement. It reaffirms the position Malaysia has taken previously on honouring the agreement – indeed, that cannot be in any doubt – and acknowledges that a review on the water price is
11.37 am Page: 9
11.37 am possible only if Singapore agrees with such a review.
11.37 am Ms Lee also asked about the Johor government's reported proposal for a price review. We have only heard of this proposal from media reports emitting from Johor, but there have been no official approaches from Malaysia on this issue. It would thus be premature to speculate on the impact of any such approach on our bilateral relations.
11.37 am We enjoy good relations with Malaysia at all levels, starting with the two Prime Ministers. But good relations also depend on both parties taking a broad approach to the relationship and honouring all agreements between the two countries. We will continue to work to enhance our cooperation and friendship with Malaysia in order to benefit both our peoples.
11.37 am Mdm Speaker, the Minister's comprehensive reply has taken away two out of my three supplementary questions, but I still have one more – thank goodness. Do we still need to buy raw water now that we have our own reservoirs, desalination plants and NEWater?
11.37 am I think the Member may want to ask that of the Minister for the Environment and Water Resources.
11.37 am Minister Vivian Balakrishnan?
11.37 am Mdm Speaker, I am actually answering a question on this tomorrow. So, maybe the Member can wait a while and we will provide a more comprehensive answer.
11.37 am Order. End of Question Time.
11.37 am Page: 10
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Order read for consideration in Committee of Supply [Allotted Day]. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [Mdm Speaker in the Chair]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the financial year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, contained in Paper Cmd 2 of 2014. As there are no amendments, I propose to take the Heads of Expenditure en bloc. I will first take Heads E, F, K, O, P, Q, V, W and X of the Supplementary Main Estimates.
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Question, "That the sums stated for the Heads of Expenditure as shown on page 5 of Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 stand part of the Supplementary Main Estimates", put and agreed to. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Question, "That the sum of $318,452,700 shall be supplied to the Government under the Heads of Expenditure for the public services shown in the Supplementary Main Estimates of Expenditure for the financial year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 contained in Paper Cmd 2 of 2014", put and agreed to. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Resolution to be reported. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Question, "That the sums stated for Heads Q, T and X as shown on page 7 of Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 stand part of the Supplementary Development Estimates", put and agreed to. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Question, "That the sum of $1,674,209,500 shall be supplied to the Government under the Heads of Expenditure for the public services shown in the Supplementary Development Estimates of Expenditure for the financial year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014", put and agreed to. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Resolution to be reported. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Thereupon Mdm Speaker left the Chair of the Committee and took the Chair of the House. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 Minister for Finance.
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 Page: 11
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 Mdm Speaker, I beg to report that the Committee of Supply has come to certain resolutions.
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) First resolution reported, (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 "That the sum of $318,452,700 shall be supplied to the Government under the Heads of Expenditure for the public services shown in the Supplementary Main Estimates of Expenditure for the financial year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, contained in Paper Cmd 2 of 2014."
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 Second resolution reported,
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 "That the sum of $1,674,209,500 shall be supplied to the Government under the Heads of Expenditure for the public services shown in the Supplementary Development Estimates of Expenditure for the financial year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, contained in Paper Cmd 2 of 2014."
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 Mdm Speaker, I beg to move, "That Parliament doth agree with the Committee on the said resolutions."
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Question put, and agreed to. (proc text)]
Supplementary Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 - Paper Cmd 2 of 2014 [(proc text) Resolutions accordingly agreed to. (proc text)]
Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2015 - Committee of Supply – Paper Cmd 1 of 2014 [(proc text) Order read for consideration in Committee of Supply [2nd Allotted Day]. (proc text)]
Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2015 - Committee of Supply – Paper Cmd 1 of 2014 [Mdm Speaker in the Chair]
Estimates of Expenditure for the Financial Year 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2015 - Committee of Supply – Paper Cmd 1 of 2014 Page: 12
1.00 pm [(proc text) Resumption of Debate on Question [5 March 2014], (proc text)]
1.00 pm [(proc text) "That the total sum to be allocated for Head J of the Estimates to be reduced by $100". – [Dr Lim Wee Kiak] (proc text)]
1.00 pm [(proc text) Question again proposed. (proc text)]
1.00 pm Mdm Chairman, may I take my two cuts together?
1.00 pm Yes, please.
1.00 pm First cut on ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting. Mdm Chairman, our defence cooperation agreements with other ASEAN countries is an important aspect of our regional security framework. The ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and the ADMM-Plus are both relatively new components of our regional security architecture, especially the ADMM-Plus which was established in 2010. Can the Minister provide an update on how the ADMM and ADMM-Plus have progressed and contributed to our regional security?
1.00 pm My second cut on the Gulf of Aden. The Gulf of Aden has been notorious for piracy incidents which have threatened international shipping. As a responsible member of the international community, Singapore has to do its part to counter the piracy threat. Can the Minister update the House on our contributions to the international counter piracy effort in the Gulf of Aden?
1.00 pm Page: 13
1.00 pm Mdm Chairman, at the Committee of Supply in 2013, the Minister for Defence made mention on the creation of additional posts for full-time safety officers in the SAF to ensure better compliance with training safety regulations. A Directorate for Safety and Systems Review (DSSR) has also been formed. The House was informed that the DSSR would also set up external review panels which will submit recommendations to the Minister for Defence.
1.00 pm The SAF is the port of call and a rite of passage for a vast majority of Singaporean men. Families send their sons and, now, also some of their daughters, to serve and defend this land we call home. It is, therefore, imperative that, in doing so, the utmost is done to ensure that they have a safe and secure training environment.
1.00 pm While there have not been major incidents in 2013, I hope that the Minister will be able to provide and update as to the number of near-misses and serious injuries that occurred during the last year and whether this has seen a downward trend with the introduction of more safety measures.
1.00 pm The external review panel for SAF safety, one of the review panels of the DSSR, was set up in September last year. While the visits have commenced, they will only conclude their report in 2016. Could this be accelerated? What other systems have been put in place to address safety lapses?
1.00 pm All of us owe it to our men and women in the SAF that they train with one of the best-equipped and best-trained forces in the region. It is therefore important that they have peace of mind, knowing that we do all we can to ensure their safety.
1.00 pm Mr Ong Teng Koon, you have three cuts. You can take them together.
1.00 pm Thank you, Mdm Chair. The commonly held notion of "chance favouring the prepared" cannot be underestimated. Effective training of our NSmen is, therefore, vital if we are to
1.00 pm Page: 14
1.00 pm have a strong defence force.
1.00 pm Changes to our demography are posing new challenges to the way we train our soldiers. The influx of new immigrants, falling birth rate and a shorter NS stint mean that we have to update our training methodology to be more responsive to changing circumstances. Of particular concern is whether the operational readiness of our NSmen is affected by falling birth rates. Does this mean SAF would have to intensify its efforts to capitalise on technology to make up for less physical bodies?
1.00 pm We need to keep NS going and to keep NS strong. Training enhances the fighting competence and capability of our NSmen. Singaporean youths are a highly sophisticated and educated bunch. They are technologically savvy. This is a good thing. How can we tailor our training to better take advantage of their abilities?
1.00 pm Training safety is equally important. I am happy to note that we have had no training deaths in 2013. I look forward to hearing from the Minister for Defence on MINDEF's continuing enhancement to the training efforts of our NSmen to effectively harness their talent and to hear what the Minister has to say about MINDEF's efforts to augment training safety.
1.00 pm Next cut, Madam. A related topic is Singaporean's commitment to defence. The defence of Singapore is dependent on the will of Singaporeans to support the policy of having a strong SAF, and crucially, to take personal responsibility and to get involved in our defence.
1.00 pm Our defence philosophy is predicated on being a strong deterrent force that is technologically advanced. Enemies know that they will have to suffer significant losses if they ever decide to take up arms against us. At the same time, they know that Singaporeans will hold nothing back in the defence of our homeland. This psychological edge is as important as having the latest and most advanced machines. To this end, how does MINDEF ensure that Singaporeans continue to remain committed to defence?
1.00 pm On Total Defence, the concept of defence should really be seen at the level of Total Defence. Besides Military and Civil Defence, Economic, Social and
1.00 pm Page: 15
1.00 pm Psychological Defence are as important. This year marks the 30th Anniversary of Total Defence. How has Total Defence remained relevant, and how is MINDEF educating the public about the continued importance of Total Defence?
1.00 pm Madam, in my Budget speech, I asked if we could all remember what we were doing when we were 16. Being 16 in 1942 at the fall of Singapore was perhaps the worst of times. In the decades after, being 16 has gotten easier and much less fraught with danger and uncertainty. But perhaps for some, we have become soft, unaware of the dangers of unstable geopolitical winds. But, at the same time, NS, as a key institution, continues to play a key role in rooting our people to the defence of our nation. Yet, defence can be a vague concept. And as we mark 30 years of Total Defence, how do we plan to further strengthen this message that all of us, in and out of uniform, play a crucial role? With recent incidents in the region, including the naming of an Indonesian navy vessel, it is perhaps no better time than this to do so.
1.00 pm Being 16 in the decades to come should still be filled with carefree joy and security. Yet, we must remain cognisant of the constant need to be united. The theme for this year's Total Defence is "Because You Played a Part". Let us not revisit anytime that being 16 could be the last year of life amidst conflict and suffering.
1.00 pm Madam, many Members have spoken on the changing and evolving challenges that face Singapore and other small countries in this region, in terms of security concerns and relations with other powers.
1.00 pm The increasing tensions between China and Japan seem to draw in even superpowers like the United States and there are implications for smaller states within ASEAN in their relations between these two superpowers. The maritime territorial disputes in the South China Seas though not directly affecting Singapore itself as a non-claimant state, also threaten to draw in some of our partner nations within the ASEAN grouping as well, and there are pressures for ASEAN as a whole and for small countries like Singapore to take a stand potentially to align itself on one side or the other, which goes contrary to the nature of ASEAN and to Singapore's position of being a friend to all sides.
1.00 pm The implications for Singapore, in terms of defence, are far reaching, in terms of the changing, evolving international concerns. I believe the Defence
1.00 pm Page: 16
1.00 pm Minister has mentioned the potential of Singapore being part of the multinational force under the auspices of ASEAN. I think the evolving nature of the SAF should take into consideration what this will actually mean for the development of the force as we go forward.
1.00 pm Other challenges that face our country, Singapore, of course, involve issues like terrorism, which is a continually evolving challenge, and the current Third Generation SAF and, hopefully, the Fourth Generation SAF, will also take into consideration some of the future needs to deal with such challenges as times evolve.
1.00 pm A core issue, despite all these challenges from abroad and within, comes down to the idea of communicating what it means to have a strong defence in Singapore.
1.00 pm Through my work as a member of the Working Group of the CSNS committee, we have heard many stories of the commitment by NSmen, both full-time and those who have moved out of their full-time service, is very, very great. My own experiences as an NSman show that many of my compatriots and my colleagues within the unit are willing to extend the service voluntarily to ensure that they play a role and continue to play a role in the defence of the country.
1.00 pm As other hon Members have mentioned so far, a key question now is how do we ensure that the future generations take on the significance of everyone doing their part for Total Defence. The relevance of Usman Harun, the recent incident, the historical anecdotes of what happened during Konfrontasi, I think much of this is actually lost on the younger generation. I hope that the Ministry, as it continues to plan its budget going forward – considering the hardware that we need to acquire and to renew to ensure that we remain relevant as an international force – will also consider devoting sufficient resources to communicating the message of the need for defence.
1.00 pm I think it is very easy for the younger generation these days to be a little bit cynical and to point out the fact that given that we are friends with so many nations, there is no real need for a defence force that is strong or stronger, in terms of relative capabilities to our neighbours, given that we are friends with everyone.
1.00 pm Members in the House spoke yesterday of the need to speak from a position of strength before we can exhibit work from the heart. I think that before we can
1.00 pm Page: 17
1.00 pm talk about the conviction and the ability to use some of the hardware that we will acquire, we have to ensure that we receive broad-based support from the younger generation and generations to come who commit to NS as an important part of nation-building, as an important part of Singapore's growth story going forward.
1.00 pm This becomes even more critical with the diminishing population, given the population trends that we are facing, that everyone carries out their duties, not just in the sense of fulfilling the time required to ticking the box and saying that I have completed it, but to do it wholeheartedly and with the conviction that this is something that it is really relevant and really important for the future and security of Singapore.
1.00 pm Each generation comes forward and says that we are willing to do our part. But how do we communicate to them that the relevance and the importance of having a strong defence force is something that is integral to the question and survivability of Singapore going forward? And I believe ensuring that the communication and the awareness of the evolving framework that we are facing will continue to be an important part going forward.
1.00 pm Madam, first, let me thank Members of the House for their continued support for MINDEF and the SAF and the strong defence of Singapore. I feel very heartened because this support came from Members regardless of party affiliation, Nominated Members included. I take to heart Mr Nicholas Fang's affirmation for a strong defence and for individual effort, and for us to communicate a need for a strong defence.
1.00 pm The Pioneers of Singapore take centrestage of this Budget and COS. But the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister for Finance is a bit upset with MINDEF for putting up the PIONEER bag. Well, you know the PIONEER magazine came before his package, so that gives us some latitude.
1.00 pm For them to take centrestage is the right thing. Singaporeans owe a debt of gratitude to our founding generation – for their vision, tenacity, sacrifice and hard work. Because without these pioneers, today's modern, successful and stable Singapore could not have been built. Our pioneers were deeply convicted that a strong military was necessary to defend Singapore as an independent nation.
1.00 pm The convictions of this founding generation were visceral, emotionally riveted, as many of them personally lived through Singapore as a British Colony,
1.00 pm Page: 18
1.00 pm through the Japanese Occupation, Konfrontasi, the communal riots and the Communist insurgency. You would have met some of them. Some of them were your relatives, as you have described. When you speak to them about these events, you can see in their faces a face shift as they are relating an incident, mental images seared in their minds, and they speak to you with a different depth of conviction.
1.00 pm Subjugation and terror; fearful even when unjustly treated; defenceless and too weak to respond – these raw lessons that they learnt first-hand on power and dominion shaped their belief, sank deep their conviction that a strong security force was critical to ensure peace and stability for Singapore and to protect our sovereignty.
1.00 pm Even so, when we gained Independence in 1965, this founding generation saw clearly the insurmountable odds to build a credible defence. The reason: Singapore was a poor country with very few resources and our people lived in an island with what military experts say we have no strategic depth geographically.
1.00 pm For the Army, National Service started with significant teething problems in equipment and training. Conscription was newly introduced, and had yet to find general acceptance and commitment. To train our first pilots, the RSAF – it was not called the RSAF then, it was called the Singapore Air Defence Command (SADC) – had to borrow a Cessna from the Singapore Flying Club! The Singapore Flying Club was built before the SADC. Our Navy's illustrious beginnings were two wooden hull boats that could not go very far from our shores and so they confined themselves to constabulary duties within the Singapore Strait.
1.00 pm And what of our magnificent "communications network" that we speak of today? Well, in our beginnings, we had six high frequency radio sets that we took over from the 4th Malaysian Signals Squadron.
1.00 pm From these humble beginnings, we have today a modern, professional and credible SAF – the Army, Navy and Air Force linked as one fighting machine – able to stand up to the wide range of security threats, able to protect Singaporeans and defend our airspace and surrounding waters.
1.00 pm The SAF has had to undertake missions thousands of kilometres away from home, whether it was in unfamiliar seas off Somalia, the air space over Iraq or the mountains of Afghanistan. We have done well and this transformation of
1.00 pm Page: 19
1.00 pm the SAF speaks volumes of past efforts and of the sterling and defining contributions of our pioneers. We salute the pioneers who laid the foundations of the strong SAF today.
1.00 pm But as with the building of Singapore, the work of building up the SAF is not done. This generation must continue the pioneering efforts to maintain and build up a strong SAF. Present challenges exist and new ones are on the horizon, as many Members in this House have spoken about – Dr Lim Wee Kiak, Ms Irene Ng, Mr Alex Yam, Mr Ong Teng Koon, Mr Nicholas Fang, Mr Pritam Singh, Mr Gerald Giam.
1.00 pm A new generation with different experiences, memories and motivation now form the SAF as protectors of this nation. And, indeed, our immediate part of the world is changing dramatically, as Dr Lim Wee Kiak and Ms Irene Ng pointed out.
1.00 pm In the latter half of the 20th century, US dominance in both security and economic spheres was unchallenged, and it provided the security umbrella for this region. In the 21st century, China's rise as an economic and military power is redefining the power dynamics in the Asia Pacific. Japan and Korea are responding to these dramatic shifts as are India and ASEAN.
1.00 pm Already, Asia's defence spending has surpassed that of Europe's and it is projected to surpass that of the US within the next decade – Asia will spend more than the US. A militarisation of many countries within Asia of this magnitude has no historical precedent. This is the larger strategic backdrop against which territorial disputes and incidents amid rising nationalism should be viewed.
1.00 pm I recently attended the 50th Munich Security Conference – its 50th gathering – and there was one distinguished panel which stood out. It consisted of, among others, former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, and former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger – octogenarians, maybe even nonagenarians, in their 80s and 90s, all World War II and Cold War veterans.
1.00 pm This distinguished panel made the trenchant observation that Europe had not seen a major war in the last 50 years. That was a signal of achievement to them because after two World Wars and the Cold War, there was political will
1.00 pm Page: 20
1.00 pm by European leaders to make war between one European country and another irrelevant. But barely a month after that meeting, a crisis has precipitated in Ukraine, taking it to the brink of war with concerns that another Cold War might emerge.
1.00 pm Beyond Europe, I was struck by a comment Secretary Kissinger made of Asia. Often, we look at Asia from within but, often times, it is useful to hear the views from outside, from others looking towards Asia. Kissinger said that Europe, in the post-modern period, was reluctant to engage in military conflict, very eager to maintain its standard of living and quite different from the Europe that organised the world 100 years ago. A hundred years ago, because this is 100 years since the First World War. However, he continued, Asia, at present, was more like 19th century Europe, where military conflicts among each other – he mentioned between China and Japan, or other neighbours – could not be excluded. Military conflict in Asia could not be excluded. Kissinger added that the risk exists that "some relatively peripheral issues are escalated step by step, into a conflagration."
1.00 pm These were sobering words, indeed, on the risks that exist in Asia from wise men who have studied or witnessed the making of wars.
1.00 pm How do we prepare and build our defences for this kind of future? I think many Members here in their speeches are grappling with this issue. How do you prepare for this future? It is not possible to predict the future precisely or tailor-make an SAF that meets only specific security challenges. All of us know that because if you look within the last decade – just within the last 10 years – all the major security challenges globally, whether it was 9/11, the terrorist threat, SARS, piracy – all came as surprises.
1.00 pm No one foresaw us operating a Weapon Locating Radar and UAVs and running hospitals 6,000 km away in Oruzgan in Afghanistan, or deploying frigates and naval helicopters more than 7,000 km away in the Gulf of Aden. This is not a surprise because military history is replete with unknown unknowns. And because we are unable to forecast specific security threats, we, therefore, must adopt a more robust and resilient approach by building an SAF that can deter would-be aggressors and meet a wide range of security threats so that we would not be caught off-guard or flat-footed.
1.00 pm A robust approach in building our defence capability to achieve strategic deterrence is why MINDEF maintains a steady defence spending which has delivered, over time, a strong SAF respected by even advanced Western
1.00 pm Page: 21
1.00 pm militaries. Our planning horizons are intentionally long term and we spend prudently and steadily. This steady defence spending allows us many "opportunity buys", for example, the refurbished Leopard Tanks from Germany. It was a good buy because this was what they termed the "post-Cold World War dividends" – the Berlin Wall came down, people said tanks were no longer required, so there was a huge surplus of tanks that went on the market and we picked them up at a relatively good price and refurbished them.
1.00 pm After this came Iraq/Afghanistan where the Canadians, who had sold their Leopard Tanks realised that Leopard Tanks were, indeed, very much needed even in desert warfare, had to re-buy them at an escalated price. So, we were smiling and said, "Good buy".
1.00 pm This steady defence spending allows us a long lead time to train our men adequately and to develop platforms that meet our specific requirements when we cannot buy from the open market. For example, some of you may have heard of our Pegasus lightweight howitzer that was locally developed, it can be lifted by helicopters and self-propelled; it is the first and still the only one of its kind in the world.
1.00 pm MINDEF will continue this approach of steady defence spending that has reaped significant benefits for our defence capabilities. In other words, we will avoid sharp spikes unless the security risks require increased spending. We will also avoid sharp dips that will undermine our defence capabilities over the medium term. So, if you look at our defence spending over the last 10 years, and I think Members have asked for it – what is our thinking, what is our trend – if you look at our defence spending over the last 10 years, it reflects this steady investment in capability building where our defence budget has roughly kept pace with inflation. Let me give you the figures.
1.00 pm In 2004, it was S$8.6 billion and, last year, it was S$12.2 billion. In other words, it has kept pace more or less with inflation and I expect going forward that our defence spending will continue on this trajectory that more or less keeps pace with inflation over the long term. It is sustainable and it is a prudent way of investing in our defence capabilities.