Mr Speaker, Sir, the Minister for Finance has given us welcome news in his well-presented budget. Economically, we have done better than we expected and we can approach the coming year with cautious optimism. Curiously, however, our performance over the last three years of some 15 per cent of growth a year in the Gross Domestic Product, one of the highest growth rates in the world, has been described by many commentators as a mini-boom. I wonder what a regular or a maxi-boom would look like. Let me comment first on the Minister's proposal to formulate an optimum investment policy. He has rightly emphasized two elements; firstly, the attention to selectivity in promoting new industries, where priority is to be given to industries with higher technology, established world markets, and the ability to utilize higher grades of skilled labour. Secondly, the Minister raised the important question of training skilled labour. Contrary to the view of my colleague, the Member for Moulmein, I think that the proposed use of the payroll tax is an excellent idea. The payroll tax itself is an anomaly in a situation where we are trying to create employment, so that the optimum policy is a subsidy rather than a tax on the use of labour. The use of the tax proceeds to finance the training of skilled labour, therefore, makes economic sense. In addition to the specific proposals for training labour outlined by the Minister, consideration should be given to proper vocational guidance in schools, and at the Ministry of Defence for national servicemen who are about to be discharged. I am told that one of the most keenly sought jobs, for example, is that of hotel toilet-attendants who can expect good tips by turning on taps and handing out towels. Now I cannot imagine how productivity can increase in such occupations! We have got to get our young people used to the idea of forgoing some earnings during a training period of two to three years, but with the expectation of a higher earnings profile later. The only way to induce such a sense of the long-term is to provide vocational guidance, where lectures are given on different career prospects. In addition to the two elements of industrial selection and labour training mentioned by the Minister, I would advocate attention to six other factors in framing an optimum investment policy: First of all is the nurturing of local entrepreneurship. As I have indicated on another occasion, our emphasis on export orientation poses a number of challenges to our entrepreneurs. In the first place, an enterprise has to be efficient in order to compete successfully with foreign goods in terms of price and quality. Secondly, to export success-fully, entrepreneurs must acquire the marketing techniques of advertising, trade missions and exhibitions abroad. The foreign investors come in with a ready technology, managerial capability, and well-established marketing channels abroad. Moreover, the kinds of foreign investment we have been getting lately are large. Indeed, the recent amendment to the Economic Expansion Act favours the bigger-sized establishments, quite rightly, from our economy's standpoint. However, we should recognise that the local entrepreneur is put at a relative disadvantage. He has limited access to technology, his concept of organisation is relatively primitive, his capital resources are rather slender, and he does not have the established marketing channels abroad. A purely nationalistic reaction would be to close the doors to foreign investment and adopt an import-substitution policy. This would, however, be a tremendous disaster to Singapore. The key to full employment and higher standards of living in our situation lies in our present open-door policy to both trade and foreign investment. But from a long-term point of view, it is desirable that we try to nurture a corps of local entrepreneurs. This can best be done by, first of all, helping those local industries which are thriving and which have potential for expansion to secure better technology and organisation. There is a distressing propensity on the part of the Development Bank of Singapore and the Light Industries Services to waste time, money and effort in attempting to rescue industries which are incurable. I have also advocated more credit availability to our local industries and I note with approval the provision of an additional $96 million to the Development Bank of Singapore. Government should also help local industries in learning marketing techniques, promote mergers of existing concerns into bigger and more efficient establishments, and help local industrialists to identify worthwhile investment opportunities. The second factor is what I call the avoidance of wage distortions in the economy. In a situation of rapid industrialization, wage patterns tend to get grossly distorted unless there is proper meshing of supply and demand. Even if the general policy of wage restraint is effective, there can be considerable wage movements within the given scales brought about by the mobility of labour and the variability of entry points. There must, therefore, be a national manpower co-ordinating body monitoring wage movements, checking labour supply developments, and attempting to synchronise with demand for various types of skills. I have argued at Economic Development Board meetings for such a body, since we can assemble the information on projects in the pipe-lines, and we can require prospective investors to indicate the type and the volume of skills required. Our policy with regard to wage increases has been that they should be tied to productivity increases. The problem of how to implement the idea fairly is still being worked out. Hopefully, the reorganisation of the National Productivity Centre should help in this direction. I should emphasize, though, that the avoidance of wage distortions is a macro-problem and takes precedence over intra- and inter-industry wage adjustments. Mr Speaker, Sir, I come now to the third factor, and that is, attention to the cost of living. Singapore is probably the envy of other countries since our cost of living has been exceptionally slow in rising. However, we cannot expect this happy state of affairs to last much longer as inflation in other countries is bound to have its impact on us in due course, because we have such an open economy. Moreover, as an academic colleague of mine has rightly pointed out, we are still using the budget weights of 1960! Since then, our per capita income has more than doubled. As people's incomes rise, the proportions of expenditures spent on food, clothing, housing and other items change, with greater weight being assignable to more luxury-type goods. We need, therefore, to update the weights used in the construction of our cost-of-living index. We can rightly demand sacrifices of our workers in terms of moderating their demands for wage increases but, at the same time, they must not be made to sacrifice some of their real wages through inflation, correctly measured. Ultimately, the success or failure of our development efforts depends upon the exertions of our workers; it goes without saying that they are entitled to a fair return. I would now like to talk about the fourth factor in our optimum investment policy. Here I will put it as the avoidance of protection measures. I note with alarm the almost casual note inserted by the Minister at the conclusion of his budget speech, where he mentioned that protection for some industries at their early stages of implementation may be considered. I hope this will not be the case as protection via tariffs and quotas is counter-productive in the context of our small economy. Let me emphasize once again what I have said on other occasions, that the real argument for protection is for some kind of subsidy for labour training or marketing or organisation. Protection itself tends to create inefficiency and unhealthy dependence on the small domestic market. The fifth factor concerns the quality of our institutions. In the decade of the Sixties, Government did much by way of the economic infrastructure where, in addition to physical facilities for investors, services were extended from new institutions like the Economic Development Board, the Development Bank of Singapore, the Singapore Institute of Standards and Industrial Research, and so on. In the Seventies, we need careful evaluation of the effecttiveness of these institutions. One or two are, I suspect, white elephants of an expensive kind. While they undoubtedly have served a purpose in our overall investment promotion efforts, we need to ensure that the services promised to the investors materialize effectively. In many cases, there is a need to upgrade the quality of the professional staff. As our economy grows more sophisticated, the kinds of manpower used in monitoring and servicing industry must have corresponding technical expertise. I would hope, therefore, that adequate attention will be paid to the quality of our institutions, from the civil service down to the statutory bodies. The sixth factor is the control of speculative capital. Part of the blame for the escalation of housing costs must be assigned to the influx of what is known as `hot' money, that is, refugee capital from countries suffering political and economic disturbances. Real estate is a natural haven for such capital. Government should look into the means of controlling such speculative capital as otherwise the distortions created in our economy can be very severe. Mr Speaker, Sir, next I would like to comment on our expenditure on social services. The Budget provides for only a 7.6 per cent increase in this item in the Ordinary Estimates. However, this niggardliness is counter-balanced by a substantial increase in the Development Estimates, giving an overall increase of over 17 per cent for the social sector. This perhaps should have been brought out in the Minister's presentation. Looking ahead, I would think that it is time that we thought in terms of a modern social welfare programme incorporating the more positive features of such schemes from the advanced countries. Given our present rate of economic development, our Gross Domestic Product will double in five years and quadruple in 10 years. A more modest rate of growth of 10 per cent would give us a doubling in seven years and a quadrupling in 14 to 15 years. In other words, although we cannot yet afford the kinds of welfare programme available in the more advanced countries now, we shall be able to do so in 10 to 15 years' time if we can keep up our present momentum of economic development. For the present, we should concentrate on the quality aspect of our social projects. However, we should never lose sight of our socialist goals of equality of opportunity and a fair share for all. Today we rightly emphasize the need for economic efficiency, as reflected in our slogan: from each his economic best to each his economic worth. The time should come when we accord each person the opportunity for his optimal development, demand of him not only his economic but his social best as well, and compensate him for his economic and social worth. Our present concern for a clean environment and the call for gracious living is a harbinger of such things to come. As we become more affluent, the cultural and social aspects of life should assume due importance alongside the purely economic. Sir, let me now go on to comment on the development of tourism in Singapore. As the Minister has pointed out, earnings from tourism constitute about 5 per cent of our Gross Domestic Product. The resources which have been invested in the industry are already considerable if one takes into account not only hotels but airport facilities, night-clubs and public utilities. Even more resources will be devoted, as can he seen in the airport expansion plans and the Sentosa development project. I think it is time we paused to examine two important questions. The first is an economic one, namely, what is the optimal degree of development of the tourist industry? In other words, how many visitors can we optimally accommodate before the additional return to our dollar invested becomes negligible or less than economic? We should study carefully countries or states with tourism as a major industry. I feel that beyond a point, the strain on the infrastructure, in terms of demand for utilities, communications and transport becomes all too evident. The costs of providing such facilities will undoubtedly rise, which, in addition to the rise in the cost of personal services, means a rise in the cost of living. Furthermore, the industry is one which is particularly vulnerable to social and political disturbances - visitors may be disinclined to come here if there is trouble in neighbouring countries. The other question is a cultural one. So far, our attitude seems to be that virtually anything is tolerable, provided it helps bring in the tourists. On the one hand, we have institutions which frown even on a-go-go types of dancing, and, on the other, in the name of tourism, we allow the importation of the crasser types of night-club shows from western countries at great expense. I am told that more locals than tourists frequent such night-spots. Of more serious concern to us is the possible cynical reaction of our youth to the apparent adoption of double-standards in our approach to cultural matters. Now, I am not arguing for a puritanical approach to such things; rather, I am appealing for consistent standards to be applied. Mr Speaker, Sir, I would now like to touch upon the problem of urban renewal. I am concerned here about two things, one, the uprooting of business and, two, the question of adequate compensation. Many of the small businesses depend on the location and the goodwill built up among the neighbouring clientele. I would expect severe economic difficulties to arise when such businesses are removed elsewhere. The solution would be to ensure, first of all, that suitable alternative sites be provided to the satisfaction of the people concerned, and, secondly, adequate compensation be given. Government has argued rightly that the subsequent rise in property values after redevelopment is due to the investment in roads and communications; however, I do feel that we should err in favour of people uprooted by urban renewal. In many cases, people do not have the means to sue the Government. In other cases, they probably feel it is a useless process because, to them, Government appears to be all-powerful. In the advanced countries we see the other extreme of urban renewal projects being held up because of numerous law suits brought against the authorities! While the going is easy for us, we should try to bend over backwards in accommodating people who are affected by our urban renewal schemes, especially the poorer people. Next, I would like to talk about our balance of payments. The Minister for Finance has done an admirable job of analysing the trade deficit. The deficit is a good and healthy thing because it is stimulated by a buoyant economy investing in machinery and plant, which will generate output and, therefore, the means for repayment in the future. Furthermore, for the first time in several years, our growth in Gross Domestic Expenditure exceeds that of our Gross Domestic Product, reflecting the fact that investments exceed our savings. Hitherto, we had saved more than we invested locally, resulting in accretions of Singapore investments and bank balances abroad. Investment in real terms requires not just a financial inflow but the actual importation of the machinery and the tools required for the production process. The ordinary layman's view is that balance of payments surpluses are good and deficits are bad; in economic terms, surpluses imply the transfer of real goods and services overseas in exchange for paper claims redeemable at some future date! Of course, a trade deficit would be bad if it comprises consumption type goods so that no productive capacity is added. Now I want to comment on the Minister's reference to Mr S. Okita's analysis of the causes of the high Japanese growth rates. It seems to me that the nine points listed are more descriptive than analytical. Sir, two of the points, the fifth on agriculture and the ninth, are either irrelevant or unclear as to the line of causation. In our context, our rapid growth can be attributable to five factors: (1) Political stability: This is something which people should not take for granted. In fact, we should use the period of relative calm to build a stronger political base to ensure continued stability and progress. Investors have a time-horizon for their calculations and need a degree of certainty for their returns, and hence the importance of this factor. (2) Economic infrastructure: We are now enjoying the fruits of the extensive investments in the economic infrastructure which were made in the Sixties. (3) Efficient administration: In countries where bureaucracy is stifling and corruption rampant, much entrepreneurial energy is wasted in merely securing legitimacy. Although we have a relatively efficient and non-corrupt civil service, we should not be too complacent. The current courtesy campaign is a correct step, but we should remain watchful against corruption. The more blatant forms of corruption are easy to detect, but the methods of corruption can grow in sophistication too - these are the more insidious and more difficult to identify. (4) Open-door policy on trade and investment: We are rightly emphasising export orientation and providing a hospitable climate for foreign investment. (5) Labour-force discipline: Last, but not least, we should not forget the discipline and the exertions of our workers. The co-operation of the unions in restraining wage demands, in accepting longer work hours, trimming of fringe benefits and curtailment of their bargaining powers, has been a major positive factor. Sir, now let me draw attention to the storm signals which the Minister talked about. The most proximate one concerns the run-down of the British military bases this year of some $250- 300 million. While the expenditure effects per se can be met by the counter-recessionary measures mentioned by the Minister, I think that in addition to the efforts of the Bases Economic Conversion Department, a more direct approach towards the absorption of the 15,000 civilian employees and the 2,000 locally-enlisted personnel is necessary. Many of these people, I suspect, are in clerical-type occupations and are not young. Consequently, they would have great difficulty in finding jobs with comparable pay and their adjustment problems to new kinds of occupations are not inconsequential. I would propose that all clerical and all unskilled job vacancies in Government and statutory boards in the next two years be reserved for these retrenched workers. Government bodies should refrain from taking in young people for such occupations because the younger people are more adaptable. So let them go elsewhere. Part of the decline in entrepot earnings mentioned by the Minister probably reflects the reclassification of ship-repairing services as manufactures. However, so long as we can pull ahead in manufacturing activity, decreased dependence on entrepot earnings should induce no undue anxiety. Mr Speaker, Sir, let me now comment on the silver lining mentioned by the Minister. The hopeful factors raised by the Minister include the role of Japan in influencing the trade and investment in South-east Asian countries. Whether and how Japan will use her vast economic power to help South-east Asia develop is something which depends on her calculations. If she fulfils her social and economic responsibilities to the region, we stand to benefit substantially by way of increased trade and investment. Japan currently ranks as our largest supplier of imports and fourth as a market for our exports. The trade gap is overwhelmingly in her favour. There should be ample goodwill on her part, therefore, in allowing the entry of Singapore manufactures and we should take full advantage of this leverage. In terms of investment, we can benefit substantially as Japan moves on to higher technology industries; however, we should exercise selectivity and reject those industries with major pollution problems and cultivate those which build up our technical, managerial and marketing skills. In any event, we should not forget that the Japanese are hard bargainers. In conclusion, Sir, I applaud the decision not to raise new taxes as this would be the wrong strategy to pursue when we are trying to offset the expenditure reductions of the British bases. Our credit standing is strong, as the Minister rightly pointed out. If past experience is any guide, I suspect also that some of the estimated tax revenues are under-estimates. Let us not forget, however, that this is not yet the time to relax. We should remain watchful to see how our workers imbibe the new skills and how our managers and executives learn the ropes of modern organisation and sales techniques. The more difficult phase of development lies ahead because quality is more difficult to achieve than quantity. Our concern in the years ahead must increasingly be with quality of skills, of products, of management, of institutions, and, above all, of the political leadership. At a time of relative peace and prosperity, the political challenge is not so much of courage hut of foresight in anticipating problems and of patient toil in the construction of an even better future. In such a setting, the temptation unfortunately is always to relax and grow flabby with age and over-indulgence. 4.00 p.m.