Mr Speaker, Sir, I beg to move, "That Parliament approves the financial policy of the Government for the financial year 1st April, 1982 to 31st March, 1983." Sir, I have been delegated the authority by the Minister for Finance to prepare and deliver the Budget Statement under Articles 144 and 145 of the Constitution of Singapore. Following established practice I shall present the Statement in three parts. The first will review the progress of the economy in 1981 and our economic policy. The second will elaborate on the FY 1982 Main and Development Estimates, and the third on the Revenue Estimates and tax changes to finance the estimated expenditure incurred in achieving our social and economic objectives. In preparing this year's Budget Statement, I have had the benefit of the views of representatives from various business groups, NTUC, CASE and the University. I have taken these views into consideration where appropriate. Singapore's Economy in 1981 The detailed review of the performance of our economy in 1981 may be found in the Economic Survey of Singapore, 1981 (Cols. 567 - 828), copies of which have been given to hon. Members of the House earlier. Today I shall highlight our performance briefly. As expected, 1981 was a very difficult year for the world economy. Very low or negative growth rates were recorded in the United States, France, West Germany and Great Britain. The number of people without work in Europe and the United States rose to post-war record levels. In the United Kingdom, 3.0 million people, a number greater than the population of Singapore, were without jobs. In the United States, those jobless numbered 9.5 million. Because of the grim economic conditions in these countries, world trade did not grow at all. In comparison with the depressing economic conditions in the West, the performance of the Singapore economy in 1981 was an enviable one. Our economy grew at just under 10%, only marginally less than in 1980. We are fortunate that the Asia-Pacific region, with its abundant natural resources and political stability, is one of the growth areas in the world today. The North East Asian developing countries of Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea and our ASEAN neighbours, continued to register growth rates of 5-10%. Japan, Australia and New Zealand also did relatively better than other industrialized countries. We benefitted. We were also fortunate to have built up a diversified economic base in the Seventies so that the slack in one product market was made up by the strong growth of another. Domestic factors played a greater role than in previous years in enabling us to achieve further growth in 1981. Undaunted by the adverse world economic condi- tions,business firms took a long term view of the potential of our economic restructuring. They invested in more plant and equipment, buildings and machinery. They mechanized and automated and initiated new and better lines of activities. The public sector also played its part by shedding off some of its manpower to the private sector. Productivity thus advanced further by 5.4% accounting for more than half of the economic growth. A large part of this came from the efforts of individual Singaporeans in responding to economic restructuring. They worked harder and smarter than the year before and acquired new skills. All major sectors of the economy grew, although at a slightly slower pace than in 1980. Manufacturing expanded by 10%, financial and business services 18%, and transport and communication 13%. Although the trade sector slowed down, it still grew by 6%. External trade bore the brunt of the recession in the United States and Western Europe. In dollar terms, it expanded by 10% to $103 billion. In volume terms, the increase was 8%. Though much lower than the previous years, it was a commendable achievement in the face of stagnant world trade. With investment in new factories, offices, hotels, shopping complexes 'and houses, the construction sector grew at a fast pace, 17%. Fortunately, there were fewer supply bottlenecks because of the increases in local production and imports of building materials. More foreign workers from non-traditional sources were also admitted, After a rapid rise in prices in the first half of 1981, we are now seeing a restoration of price stability in the industry. The construction industry will continue to be a very important sector in our economy in the next ten years. I will come back to it later. Our good economic performance had only one unsatisfactory aspect, i.e. a stubborn inflation rate. Mainly because of rising food prices, inflation in 1981 did not subside as much as we would like to see. Consumer prices rose by 8.2%, marginally less than in 1980. However, inflation in Singapore was again lower than the inflation in the industrialized countries and that of our neighbouring countries. Singaporeans did not suffer any cut in real income. As measured by GDP per capita, real income went up by 8.5%. With oil prices now more stable, the outlook for consumer prices in 1982 is healthier. World prices of essential commodities, such as rice and sugar, are expected to decline as a result of good harvests. Barring any unexpected turn of events, our inflation rate will subside further in 1982. I shall now elaborate on specific areas of our economic policy. Industrial Development Industrial development is progressing well under our three-year wage correction policy. Investment commitments (excluding petrochemicals) amounted to $1.9 billion, a new record. The investments are concentrated on more capital-intensive and higher technology industries, such as metal and heavy engineering, computers, industrial electronics and electronic components, chemical products and petroleum refining. Specific new projects successfully promoted and under implementation include those for IC wafer-diffusion, computers and computer peripherals, pharmaceutical and oil field tools such as rockbits. These projects represent significant advancement for Singapore's technological base and generate challenging job opportunities for an increasingly better educated and better trained workforce. Existing firms also invested in new capital equipment and technology. As a result, for the new investments, fixed investment per worker was 128% higher, in real terms, than in 1980. Similarly, value-added per worker was 81% higher. We have also been more successful in attracting investment in specialized services. Thus commitments for engineering services and computer software services increased from $2 million in 1980 to $34 million in 1981. Labour-intensive industrial sectors that employ unskilled workers in substantial numbers are also mechanizing and automating their production processes. One local company reduced its workforce to one-sixth by introducing industrial robots and automated assembly lines. Although some progress has been made in automating our industries, the Government through the Economic Developmgnt Board (EDB) will intensify its effort to achieve the highest feasible level of mechanization in all industrial sectors. An encouraging development last year was the record high investment of $610 million committed by local firms for the expansion and upgrading of plants in the printing, publishing and ship-repairing industries. It is an indication that local companies can be as dynamic as the multinationals. It reaffirms once again that an economic philosophy of free and open competition serves us best. To assist local industries to develop and upgrade further, the EDB increased its lending through the Small Industries Finance Scheme (SIFS). 221 loans totalling $66 million were extended on concessionary terms. Investment allowances were also given for automation and upgrading projects. Of the total $11 million awarded under the Interest Grant for Mechanization Scheme of the Skills Development Fund, 70% went to 91 local companies. To be able to serve the international markets, our products and services must be of the highest standards. The conclusion of the Bilateral Airworthiness Agreement with the United States in August 1981 was further testimony that the quality of our products is gaining international recognition. Under this Agreement, aircraft parts and components manufactured in Singapore and certified by the Director of Civil Aviation in Singapore can now be exported to the United States without the need for further certification by the Federal Aviation Administration. This is ample recognition of the skills of our workers. Industrial development this year will be more difficult than in previous years as the recessionary conditions in the world economy are expected to continue into 1982. Firms face the prospect of slack demand and excess capacity in the markets of the industrialized countries. The high rates of unemployment in our traditional markets will increase protectionistic pressures while unstable exchange rates add to uncertainty. The difficult international environment makes it all the more critical for our manufacturers to restructure quickly towards technology and skill intensive industries. These are less vulnerable to protectionism and recession. EDB will vigorously identify and attract investments in such industries. It will also seek out industries with potential for fast growth and promote investment in specialized services such as aircraft servicing, computer software and engineering consultancy and design. Research and Development In the last two Budget Statements, we have laid the framework of tax incentives and financial assistance for the encouragement of Research and Development (R&D) activities in Singapore, particularly in manufacturing. I am pleased to report that considerable success has been achieved in our promotion of R&D activities. Several projects, with significant R&D content, by international firms such as Nestle, Olivetti, Varta and Sord Computer are now in the pipeline. Other firms are also bringing in major R&D facilities as part of their investment projects. We expect to see further progress in industrial R&D activities in electronics, computer hardware and software, pharmaceuticals, robotics and automation systems and biotechnology. Last year, Members were informed that a sum of $10 million was provided in the Budget to finance research and development. This sum has since been raised to $50 million. So far, grants totalling $111/2 million have been approved to support 14 projects in the engineering, medical and biomedical fields. The bulk of these projects will be undertaken by the National University of Singapore (NUS). In the coming year, we will encourage private sector firms to undertake joint research projects with the NUS and our other statutory boards. A crucial element in the development of R&D activities will be the interaction between university and industry. The success of the R&D Open House conducted by the NUS last year was very encouraging. We will continue to foster this interaction between the university staff and private sector researchers. When the first phase of the Kent Ridge Science Park is ready in 1983, we will have a focal point to enhance this interaction. I am confident that we have the talent to achieve our ultimate aim of building up R&D capability in selected areas of technology. With the progress being made in industrial R&D, real opportunities now exist in Singapore for highly qualified R&D scientists and engineers. Trade Development Trade protectionism continued to rise in 1981 as recession and unemployment worsened in the industrialized countries. We were not spared from its effects. Accusations of dumping were made against a number of our products, including microwave ovens, colour television sets, drywood screws, refrigerators and refrigerator compressors. Instigated by protectionistic lobbies in the industrialized nations, restrictions under the euphemism of 'product graduation' were added to the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). Our exports of radios, transistors and plywood were among the products affected in the GSP. The increasingly protectionistic mood was also seen in the international textile trade as restrictions were continued in the new Multi-Fibre Agreement concluded last year. Until the industrialized countries restore the health of their economies and increase employment, protectionism will continue to rear its ugly head in international trade. Being a small economy, our best defence against trade protectionism is to increase our productivity so that our goods will still be competitive in price and quality despite protectionistic barriers. We will need to expand our domestic exports by enlarging existing markets and penetrating new ones to provide the impetus for growth. In the longer term, as we restructure our economy and move into the production of more higher value-added products, we will be less vulnerable to protectionism. A good example of local manufacturers responding to Government's call to restructure and upgrade workers' productivity is the textile and garment industry. Apart from investing in new and improved machinery, the textile manufacturers have set up the first-ever centre to train craftsmen and technicians for the industry. With better trained workers who will enhance the industry's productivity and value-added content, we stand a better chance of overcoming protectionistic barriers. In addition to general upgrading, the Department of Trade will continue to promote the orderly growth and development of shipping and trade in commodities. In particular, the Department will work towards improving and developing the marketing needs of our local companies. More local manufacturers have been encouraged to promote their products overseas. In 1981, 178 Singapore companies took part in overseas trade fairs, missions and promotions organized by the Department of Trade. Participation in more fairs and missions in overseas markets will be organized in 1982 to promote exports specially from our printing and publishing, electronics, furniture, high fashion wear, and engineering industries. Missions to new markets in West Asia, Nordic countries and West Africa are also being planned. The Department of Trade will continue with its programme of conducting marketing seminars and workshops which have been useful in assisting the development of marketing expertise of local companies. Two overseas trade offices were set up in 1981 in Beijing and Rotterdam. New offices are planned in Europe and West Asia in 1982. Apan from servicing trade enquiries and coordinating trade fairs and missions, the overseas offices were also active in encouraging multi-national companies based in this region to organize missions to source-manufactured parts, components and other intermediates for their parent companies at home. As the world economy continues to be plagued by rising protectionism, deeper recession and higher energy costs, ASEAN economic cooperation takes on an added significance for development of our external trade. The most progressive area of ASEAN economic cooperation was in trade liberalization under the ASEAN Pre- ferential Trading Arrangements (PTA). In 1981, another 750 items were added to the ASEAN PTA bringing the total number of items enjoying preferential treatment to 6,581. Also the ceiling for items given across the board tariff concession of 20-25% was raised from US$50,000 to US$500,000. The number of such items had now increased to 7,800. The ceiling will be raised further this year. ASEAN has set up two Trade Promotion Centres in Tokyo and Rotterdam in 1981 to forge greater trade ties with the industrialized countries. In addition, ASEAN dialogues with developed countries have allowed all five member countries to benefit from trade and investment with these countries. Financial Services In the last decade, we have laid a sound infrastructure for international financial services. In the next 10 years we will have to develop even more sophisticated services for a larger international clientele, Emphasis is being given in particular to the development of the foreign exchange market, both in the depth and breadth of services provided, and to the loan syndication market. Development in these two areas were aided by the entry of foreign legal expertise and the availability of other ancillary services such as 24-hour high quality printing and sophisticated telecommunication facilities. Last year, 11 offshore banks, four merchant banks and five insurers opened offices. Local banks and financial institutions are becominp increasingly aware of the more competitive domestic and international environment and of the need to be more productive. They are promoting the wider use of automated teller machines. The Automated Cheque Clearing System is scheduled to start on 1st September, 1982. This is expected to improve productivity as well as provide better services to bank customers. To increase the spectrum of services provided, new services such as a financial futures market and a US Dollar Clearing System will be investigated. At the same time, efforts will be made to upgrade the quality of services provided by the Gold Exchange of Singapore. Floating rate certificates of deposit denominated in Singapore dollars were issued for the first time last year, giving the public another avenue for investing in medium and long-term instruments. Computerization We have made further progress in promoting the wider use of computers in Singapore. The National Computer Board (NCB) officially came into being on 1st September, 1981. It will promote computerization in the Civil Service, establish and maintain standards of computer training and develop Singapore as a computer software centre. So far, computerization projects in ten Ministries costing a total of $95 million have been identified, Work on these projects is progressing smoothly. "We will be making a start in overcoming the shortage of computer personnel when the Institute of Systems Science at the National University of Singapore and the Japan-Singapore Institute of Software Technology commence full operation this year. The Polytechnic is also looking into the establishment of an Institute for full-time computer studies to train programmers and systems analysts at Diploma level. To maintain the standards of computer education, a professional examination syndicate will be set up to conduct computer examinations in Singapore. Our secondary and pre-university students already have the opportunity to acquaint themselves with computers. Computer Science is being offered as an "A" level subject in Junior Colleges and computer appreciation clubs have been formed in 91 secondary schools. By July 1982, all existing secondary schools will be staffed with trained teachers and equipped with microcomputer systems. As a step to promote the computer software industry, the NCB is exploring the possibility of erecting a complex within the proposed Kent Ridge Science Park to house software companies. Tourism The tourist sector is important for us because it provides many opportunities for our local businessmen. In the early years, we spent considerable efforts to develop the tourist industry. Today the industry has matured. Stimulated by the promotion efforts of the Singapore Tourist Promotion Board (STPB), more and more visitors are coming to Singapore because of our growing importance as an air traffic junction and business centre, and because of our clean, green and orderly environment. Last year, 2.83 million visitors came to Singapore, an increase of 10% despite the more difficult economic conditions in the major tourist-generating countries. Tourism earnings in 1981 are estimated at $3.2 billion. We expect the industry to remain buoyant and that we will welcome our 3-millionth visitor in 1982. Spurred by good profits, hotel development is proceeding well. Another 1,480 rooms will be completed in 1982. This should help to stabilize hotel room rates which have increased substantially in the past few years and which threaten to price Singapore out of the tourist circuit. 230 conventions and meetings took place in 1981, the same as in the previous year. Growth was probably restrained because of the lack of a major convention facility. However, this shortcoming will be corrected when the Raffles City development is completed. In the meantime, marketing efforts are being made to attract large conventions in the second half of this decade. Despite the maturity of the tourist industry, we will press on with our efforts to ensure that tourists will continue to come. Several exciting tourist attractions, including a Theme Park, have been proposed by international entrepreneurs. A group of investors has also proposed plans to build a beach resort hotel on Sentosa Island. As the tourist industry is labour-intensive, manpower will be a critical factor in the next five years when new hotels come onto the market. In view of our intention to put an end to our dependence on foreign labour, the industry faces an exacting challenge to find better ways of using labour without sacrificing service. The VITB, in conjunction with the Singapore Hotel Association, will begin a hotel apprenticeship scheme for middle level hotel management staff in July. Manpower Development I think it bears repeating that manpower training and development is the decisive factor in the restructuring of our economy and in achieving our objective of full, better paid and higher skilled employment. We have laid the foundations of a comprehensive manpower upgrading programme over the past few years, especially in the last two. Our tertiary, vocational and training institutions are being vastly expanded. The Skills Development Fund has widened the scope of its financial assistance under various training schemes, There are plans to upgrade the skills of existing workers on a wider scale through the establishment of an Institute of Continuing Occupational Development. The NTUC has also on its own prepared a comprehensive and commendable programme to help its members who have missed the opportunity of a basic education. Having sown the seeds, we must allow time for our manpower development programmes to grow and fruit. The gestation period for some of these programmes can be up to half a decade. In the meantime, we must ensure that the programmes provide the kind of manpower that will sustain our economic and social development in years to come. Out-dated syllabi have to be weeded out. New courses to keep up with fast changing technology have to be grafted onto existing ones. Our policy is to free ourselves from reliance on foreign labour by the end of this decade. With diminishing growth in the pool of indigenous labour in future years resulting from declining birth rates, we can only achieve high economic growth without foreign labour if we improve the productivity of our workers and get more citizens to join the workforce. We first started our productivity drive when we launched the wage-correction policy in June 1979. The thrust of this policy was to bring wages up to equilibrium level through three successive years of higher wage increases recommended by the National Wages Council. This would compel employers to disgorge unnecessary labour and invest in labour-saving equipment and machinery to further economize on the use of manpower. This policy had the desired effects. Private investment in capital equipment and machinery in the last three years (1979-81) has been substantial. It increased at an average annual rate of 25%. This augurs well for future productivity growth. In the meantime, the shock effect of the wage policy on emproyers has also caused productivity to grow at a faster rate of 5-6% per annum. There will be further favourable effects on productivity growth when students from our expanded tertiary and training institutions join the workforce in future years and when we have succeeded in retraining our workers. In the last few years, the technology for automation and robotization has made great strides and robots are increasingly being used in manufacturing industries in Japan and the United States. Industrial automation and robotization can make a tremendous contribution in raising the productivity of manufacturing. It will also ensure better product quality control, provide a safe and pleasant working environment and place our educated workforce in the forefront of automation technology. To promote the wider use of industrial robots and automated production especially by those companies that can no longer obtain workers from non-traditional sources but still wish to operate from Singapore, the Government will provide incentives for the purchase of robots or other types of automated production equipment where there is significant labour saving, if these companies are not already enjoying incentives under the Economic Expansion Incentives (Relief from Income Tax) Act. Such purchases can be depreciated over one year and will be given an investment allowance of up to 50%. Loans provided by the Economic Development Board under the Small Industries Finance Scheme will be liberally granted for the purchase of robots or automated equipment. The Skills Development Fund will also be requested to extend the maximum possible grant under its mechanization scheme to companies buying such equipment. Last year, we conducted a blitz on poor work attitudes and the need to foster team spirit at the workplace. By doing so, we have opened up another front in our drive towards high productivity growth in the Eighties. The human aspects of productivity improvement that are being emphasized will complement the expanded training programmes and increased capital investments that are undertaken. The National Productivity Council was formed to promote this important approach to productivity improvement. Its representatives are drawn from the Government, the business groups and the trade unions. As good team spirit at the workplace contributes to productivity, the Council is examining how workers can be encouraged to identify themselves more closely with the company they work in by means of company-based welfare benefits and other measures. On the human aspects of productivity improvement, the Government is sefting the example by formulating a five-year plan to introduce quality control circles called Work Improvement Teams (WITS) in the Civil Service and Statutory Boards. The objectives are to improve productivity, staff morale and team spirit through staff participation, involvement and contribution. In conjunction with this, the Government has also started a Welfare programme with funds allocated to the various Ministries for expenditure on staff welfare and recreation. All these programmes are inspired by the recommendations made by the Committee on Productivity. In 1982 we should see more of the Committee's recommendations come to fruition. I have mentioned that it is important to get more of our citizens into the workforce if we are not to rely on foreign labour. In 1981, the labour force participation rate among males was 81.1%. The femate participation rate was only 44.8%. We will have to be more imaginative and more determined in our efforts at retaining a large number of our womenfolk in the labour force without however endangering the upbringing of our children. The family unit is the most fundamental building block in our society and it is an institu- tion which we must cherish and preserve even at the cost of sacrificing some economic growth. There are an estimated 44,000 experienced retired persons in the population. We must try to bring as many as possible back into the mainstream of economic life. A Committee on the Care of the Aged is looking into this issue among others. Energy Development The most encouraging trend in the world economy today is the oil glut, which has arrested the spiralling crude prices of the last three years. The oil glut will enable us to have stable prices of oil in the next year or so. The world will have a better chance of recovering from the current depressed economic condition and also be better protected against unforeseen political events that can disrupt supply. However, we must not be lulled by the atmosphere of glut and distressed prices in the oil market to disregard the need to be efficient in the use of energy. There is a glut only because demand has fallen much below supply owing to the recessionary conditions and past conservation efforts, Supply is still scarce and the long-term security of some of the sources remains in doubt. We must therefore press on with our efforts to reduce wastage in the use of electricity, oil and other fuel. In this regard, I am very pleased to report that there are indications that our economy is responding well to the call to conserve energy. Since the second oil shock of 1979-80 the ratio of growth in electricity consumption to growth in the economy has fallen steadily from a high level of 1.83 in 1978 to 0.77 in 1980. In 1981, this ratio decreased further to 0.
75. It means that we are using less and less electricity to produce each additional unit of output. Our economy has continued to grow at a fast pace despite higher energy prices. And because our industries have found ways to operate with less energy, we will be better placed than others to respond to the next oil crisis. I attribute the improvement in energy efficiency to the effects of high energy prices. Our policy of not subsidizing world market prices and allowing cost increases to be passed on as soon as possible to the final consumer was thus in the right direction. In spite of our success, we must continue to encourage energy conservation through persuasion, incentives and disincentives. In May this year, the Ministry of Trade and Industry together with the PUB and other organizations will be conducting another Energy Conservation Campaign to raise the level of energy-saving consciousness created in last year's campaign. Although the message will have to be got across to all sectors, the major emphasis of this year's campaign will be on the manufacturing industry which is the largest energy consuming sector in Singapore. Last year, the Government announced that the provision on accelerated depreciation in the Income Tax Act will be extended to cover approved energy-saving expenditure incurred by non-industrial enterprises. The guidelines for these incentives have been finalized and are set out in the Annex I (Cols. 829 - 832) to this Statement. Annex I - ACCELERATED DEPRECIATION ALLOWANCE TO APPROVED ENERGY-SAVING EQUIPMENT IN NON-INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES (Cols. 829 - 832) Effective from 1st January, 1982, commercial buildings which have not complied with the Overall Thermal Transfer Value (OTTV) requirement set by the Building Control Division (BCD) would have to pay a surcharge of 20% tax on their electricity bills. Since the imposition of the OTTV requirement, 155 commercial buildings have taken or will be taking measures to comply. 49 buildings which have failed to comply are paying the 20% surcharge. In line with the strategy of diversifying away from oil, the Public Utilities Board (PUB) has commissioned external consultants to undertake a study on coal-fired power stations. This study has recently been completed. The PUB is now in the process of studying the consultant's report and will then be in a position to recommend whether coal-fired power stations should be constructed in Singapore. Another energy alternative is natural gas which has been found in substantial quantities in the region. Construction Although accounting for only 5% of our GDP, the construction industry is of vital importance in our economic policy. It is the sector that builds the physical infrastructure - ports, roads, factories, offices, hotels, houses and flats - required to accommodate our economic activities and our citizens, Over this decade, the construction industry will figure even more in our economic plan because of the additional challenge it faces of having to build 290,000 new HDB flats for our population by 1990. Its performance is therefore of some concern. In the recent past, its capacity has been stretched to the limit leading to supply bottlenecks and escalating construction prices. It has lagged seriously behind the rest of the economy in upgrading. At a time when we are short of workers, the industry remains labour-intensive using the technology of yesteryear. Last year, productivity in construction actually declined. If we are to succeed in restructuring our economy so that better employment can be provided and if all Singapore families are to have homes of their own in time, the industry will have to make a marked improvement in productivity. A permanent and skilled pool of local construction workers who are paid a good wage will be necessary. The Ministry of National Development has been looking into all possible measures to build up this pool of permanent construction workers, including the setting up of a special training school. Training of workers, however, takes time. Because of the aversion of our population to the construction trade, it will be some while before we can increase the local pool of permanent construction workers. With the dwindling indigenous supply of workers in general and our policy to reduce dependence on foreign workers, the only way to enable the industry to fulfil the tasks set for it in this decade is to mechanize, and to do it swiftly. To promote mechanization, the Ministry of National Development and the Ministry of Finance have implemented a loan scheme at concessionary rates of interest to finance the purchase of machinery as well as a scheme for according accelerated depreciation allowances for construction machinery. To give a further push to the pace of mechanization in the industry, an investment allowance scheme, similar to that currently applicable to certain manufacturing projects, will be made available to the construction industry. Approved fixed investment in machinery and equipment by construction firms from 1st April, 1982, to 31st March, 1987, will enjoy an investment allowance of up to 50%. The construction industry must move quickly towards prefabrication. A start in this direction has been made by the award of two contracts by the HDB for the construction of 30,000 units of public housing by prefabricated methods, More widespread use of prefabrication requires supporting investment in factories to produce the building components. The Economic Development Board will help to promote such investment and will consider granting pioneer status and other incentives under the Economic Expansion Incentives (Relief from Income Tax) Act where necessary. Whether or not our construction industry can respond to the challenges in this decade depends to a large extent on our contractors. They must upgrade their expertise and management skills. They must learn to apply the more mechanized methods of construction from Europe, Japan and the United States. The cyclical nature of the industry has added to the uncertainty in contracting business and discouraged contractors from taking a long-term view. To overcome this, the Housing and Development Board has initiated a scheme to nurture a group of core contractors similar to that in Japan and South Korea. These contractors will be assured of continuous work and be given a margin of preference of up to 5% over non-core contractors. Core contractors, however, will be required to employ on a permanent basis highly skilled workers and professionals, promote skill training and adopt mechanized methods of construction. The scheme, if successful, will be extended to other public sector organizations. With these and other measures, the construction industry will have a fair chance of success in meeting the tasks ahead. In future years Singaporeans can look forward to a greater supply of homes which will be within their means. Another 58,000 public housing units will be completed in the next two years. This is nearly double the figure of the last two years which was 33,000. For those who are not eligible for HDB flats, 21,000 private and HUDC housing units will be available in the next three to four years, more than enough to meet demand for some time to come. Concluding Remarks on Economic Policy In the course of preparing this Budget Statement, I went through the past Statements which had been presented by my Cabinet colleagues. One recurring feature of Budget Statements in recent years is that each year the Statement has warned of difficult times ahead, and each year our economy has grown strongly. In retrospect, the past foreboding of difficult times has been proved to be fully justified by subsequent events. It is not a case of crying "Wolf". The GDP growth rate of OECD countries has fallen substantially from 3.8% in 1978 to 3.4%, 1.3% and 1 1/4% respectively in the following three years. Their unemployment rates have risen from 5.2% in 1978 to 7 1/4% last year. With each passing year the world economy has indeed become more difficult to live with. That we have done well in the face of an inhospitable economic environment is due to sheer hard-work, grit, determination and adaptability on the pan of our workers and managers, correct economic policies and to the good rapport built up over many years between our unions, employers and the Government. By working as a team we have synchronized the pushes and the pull on the pistons of our economic engine so that it could run smoothly along the undulating and winding road without mishap. We must, however, not allow the smooth drive that we have had so far to lull us into complacency. Once stalled in the valleys, it will require stupendous effort to overcome the inertia of the engine and to restart it. We must therefore press on with greater urgency to restructure our economic activities. Employers in all sectors, and particularly in commerce and construction whose productivity improvements have lagged behind others, must find better ways to carry out their business, using machines, computers, robots, new systems and new technology so that our scarce and valuable human resources are deployed most effectively. Managers must lead, reward their workers fairly and motivate them to give of their best. Workers must learn to work more intelligently and efficiently in their existing occupations and diligently seek to acquire new skills. Teachers and instructors must devise fresh and imaginative ways to impart up-to-date skills and the right attitude to their students so that the working population that comes out of our schools, training institutions and university will be better with each passing year. The world economy at this point in 1982 is gloomier than last year. There is hardly any economic growth. Unemployment and interest rates are high. The largest of the world economies, the United States, is in a recession. How deep the recession will be is a matter of serious concern all over the world. If the US economy shows no sign of recovery by the middle of the year and interest rates return to the record levels set last year, the world economy will go into a tailspin. Even if recovery takes place, it will be slow. Growifig trade friction between Japan and the other OECD countries have led to strident demands in the United States for legislation to unilaterally impose "trade reciprocity", a concept which'threatens the very foundation of the world's free trade system. If world trade declines, economic growth in Singapore, as well as in other countries, will grind to a halt. My message to Singaporeans is therefore: we must pull up our socks if we want to avoid being dragged into the quagmire of economic stagnation. The Government will govern firmly and fairly, steering our economic engine with the policies I have just presented and the Budget and tax changes that follow. Barring a major adverse turn of events, and this caveat bears repeating, because we live in a troubled world where economic disasters have become the rule rather than the exception, if we cooperate and work with the same determination as last year, we may hope &p pull through 1982 with a respectable rate of economic growth yet again.