ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURE FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR - 1ST APRIL, 1993 TO 31ST MARCH, 1994
From the wide range of concerns raised by Members, it is obvious that trying to meet the housing aspirations of Singaporeans is not going to be an easy task. As we have heard today, some Members have asked for more HDB flats to be built, because the waiting list is getting very long; on the other hand, Mr Chia Shi Teck has questioned why we are building so many. Before I address the specific areas raised by individual MPs, let me try to paint the big picture first. First of all, let us ask ourselves: what is the housing situation in Singapore today? Lest we forget, this is 1993. It is not 1973 when Singaporeans were just looking for a roof above their heads. It is also not 1983 when most Singaporeans were just buying their first homes. Today, more than 90% of Singaporeans own their homes. We are therefore well on the way to a full home-owning society. This is a truly remarkable achievement. It is the clearest demonstration of the Government's programme to ensure that every Singaporean has a stake in our country. It has been achieved by massive Government subsidies to housing over the years. And I say the money has been well spent. The SDP has said that HDB flats are not true ownership. It is 99 years, there are a lot of restrictions, and therefore it is not true home ownership. Let me ask the SDP: in the constituencies they represent, perhaps, the SDP should organise a campaign to ask the residents there to return the flats to the HDB because the SDP claims they do not own the flats. The HDB will be very willing to refund back their purchase price and convert their home ownership flats to rental flats. If the SDP does not have the resources to organise it, I can get HDB to organise such a campaign for them free of charge. We must understand the situation today. We have achieved home ownership and that is something that we can be proud of. So where do we go from here? The Prime Minister answered that question three days ago. The Government's objective is to encourage Singaporeans to build up their assets. The more successful can do so on their own steam. The less successful will be assisted. But it will not be a handout. They must also put in the effort and work for it. So how do we plan to do it? We plan, as far as the housing situation is concerned, to enable Singaporeans to upgrade their old flats, so that their asset value is higher. We will also allow them to upgrade to new and bigger flats so that they have a higher investment, bigger assets. And if they can make it, we also want to facilitate their upgrading to private property. Let me assure the House that the PAP Government has achieved full home ownership within the financial resources of the Government. We have no intention to depart from this practice in our next phase to increase the assets of every Singaporean. Singaporeans want to buy bigger and better HDB flats. They see that as investing in a better asset and as investing in their future, at the same time, enjoying a higher standard of living. There is nothing wrong with people aspiring to upgrade to better quality flats if they can afford it, and with HDB meeting these aspirations. Mr Chia Shi Teck asked, with 700,000 housing units today, why are we proceeding to build so many more. As he knows, the projection for Singapore population is targeted at 4 million, if not more. The household size today is about 4.3 and steadily declining, which means, in the long term, we do need 1 million housing units to house the 4 million population. The view that we have spent too much in housing is not supported by macro-economics evidence. Let us compare the share of residential construction in total investment in Singapore over time as well as other countries. In the 1970s, the share of residential construction in Singapore was 18% of total investment. In the 1980s, this rose to 22% of total investment, because we were encouraging home ownership. In 1991 and 1992, this has dropped to 16% of total investment. So it is not true that we are over-investing in residential construction. The proportion has in fact dropped. Investment in residential construction has not crowded out other worthwhile investments. Let us compare our investment in residential construction with other countries. As I indicated earlier, Singapore's investment has dropped from 22% to 16%. In Japan, it is about 20%; USA and Canada, about 25% of total investment is in residential construction; West Germany and France, about 28%. Interestingly, whereas ours has dropped from 22% to 16% in the 1990s, South Korea's share of residential construction has in fact increased to 24% in the 1990s. I concede that Hong Kong is probably the only country with very low investment in housing. On the average, they invest about 10% of their total investment in housing. But Singaporeans have to make the decision. Are Singaporeans prepared to live under the same conditions as Hong Kong? Is Hong Kong, in fact, under-investing in housing, because it is not a popularly elected government? So at the macro-level, the evidence shows that housing is not crowding out other worthwhile investments. Many MPs have asked whether affordability has fallen. Let us look at the individual level and ask: what proportion of a household income is taken up by housing? If you look at the experience of other countries, the conventional wisdom is that the average property price is about five times the average gross annual income. Some cities where housing prices are generally considered high, this figure is much higher. For example, in Tokyo, it is 9.4 times the average annual income. In Frankfurt it is 7.5, and in New York it is 7. In Singapore, if you look at the flats purchased in 1992, among the 3-room type, comparing the average price and the average household income, this is a ratio of 3.
4. So the people buying 3-room flats are paying 3.4 times their average annual income. For 4-room, it is 4.9; for 5-room, it is 4.7; and for Executive flats, it is 5.
5. So housing prices in Singapore are well within the range in other countries, despite the shortage of land in Singapore. So this shows that housing prices in Singapore, on the whole, are affordable and do not take up an excessive proportion of Singaporeans' household income. I will address this issue later on when we talk about affordability for the lower income groups. I mentioned just now that the three programmes for the future are (1) upgrading of old flats; (2) allowing Singaporeans to upgrade to new and bigger flats; and (3) upgrading to private property. Let me now take the upgrading of old flats and address the questions posed by Dr Tan Cheng Bock. The cost-sharing ratio, which I announced on Wednesday, is intended to benefit the lower income groups so that their asset value will also increase under the Upgrading Programme. Again, we have been prudent in our approach. I agree with Dr Tan Cheng Bock that the high cost of the additional space-adding item must be highlighted to Singaporeans and the cost-sharing ratio must be more evenly spread so that only those who truly value and are prepared to pay for their share will opt for them. Dr Tan Cheng Bock suggested that the space-adding item should be optional for the 4-room and 5-room flats. That is, indeed, the case. If they are prepared to pay for a higher cost-sharing ratio for their space-adding item, they will opt for it. If they do not find it good value for money, they will opt out. Dr Tan also asked that the subsidy for the 3-room flats should be raised from 60% to 90% for the space-adding items. I think 60% is already a fairly generous percentage. We recognise the needs of the 3-room households for additional space and the suggestion put up by Mr Choo Wee Khiang for an additional toilet. And that is why we try to bring the percentage down as low as possible. Dr Tan Cheng Bock also asked whether residents in the old estates would be able to finance their share of the Upgrading Programme. Before we embark on the upgrading of every precinct, we consult the residents and we do a study of the CPF accounts. Most residents in the old 3-room flats that were bought 15 or 20 years ago would have paid up their flats and they are able to pay the additional $3,500 or $13,000, whether they opt for a Standard Package or a Standard-plus Package. They can take up a loan from the HDB repayable over 10 years and they pay a very low interest rate, 0.1% above the CPF rate. For those genuinely very poor and are not able to pay the loan, HDB will hold on to the loan and only take back the payments after they have sold the flat. So the whole package is designed so that the old and the poor are able to afford their share of the upgrading. 4.45 pm Dr Tan Cheng Bock also asked whether the precincts will become disharmonious if different blocks opt for the different packages. What I envisage would be that the Advisor to the CCCwill gauge the level of affordability of the precinct and will offer one package to them for voting. I believe most precincts will be able to afford the Standard Package so the design will be based on the Standard Package. And for those blocks that want the space-adding item, the design will accommodate the space-adding item. So I can assure Dr Tan Cheng Bock that the precinct will be harmonious and well-designed. Dr Vasoo raised the issue of rejuvenation of old estates. Besides upgrading, we also have other plans to attract the younger generation into the old estates. For example, we have announced that existing residents can buy over their neighbour's 3-room flat so as to convert it and make it into a bigger flat. This will allow new households or bigger families who need bigger flats to buy over their neighbour's flat if the neighbour is moving out and, therefore, remain in their estate. We have also, in areas where it is possible, redeveloped new flats in the old estates so as to inject new residents into the estates. So we are doing all we can to rejuvenate the older estates. Mr Choo Wee Khiang raised the problem of flats having only one toilet cum bathroom. He requested that in the Upgrading Programme, we should consider adding another toilet. I am fully in sympathy with him. Those flats which were built in the very old days were very small and they only had one toilet cum bathroom and it created a lot of problems in the "morning peak". That is why we set a very low ratio of 40% for the 3-room flat so that, if they can afford it, we will build the additional toilet for them. The HDB will also look at how we can separate the existing toilet into separate compartments for a toilet and a bathroom so that we can make it more convenient. In addition, HDB is also studying whether we can put a wash basin in the master bedroom. Let me just say that the HDB's Upgrading Programme is one of the key programmes in our next phase to build up the assets owned by every Singaporean. It will cater for all Singaporeans living in the older estates who are happy to continue to live there. Let me now turn to the problems of people who want to buy newer and bigger flats, the concerns raised by Dr Vasoo and Dr Ho Tat Kin. Let me explain the situation. The profile of HDB flat applicants today is very different from the past. In the past, the applicants were primarily first-time buyers. They were thankful just to be allocated a flat and tended not to be too particular about location or design. Today, about 50% of our flat applicants are upgraders. Upgrader applicants already have a home of their own and can afford to be more particular and hold out for a flat in the right location and of the right design. This change in the profile of HDB flat applicants became apparent and started to pose a problem around 1985 when HDB ended up with a large stock of unsold flats in Yishun and Woodlands. Applicants in the queue were not prepared to pick flats in these estates. The previous waiting list system was, therefore, no longer tenable. The booking system was, therefore, implemented to respond to this change in the profile of the flat buyers. The kind of problems that we are facing today can be divided into three categories because the demand and supply pattern for these three categories are different. The first category is mature estates. In the mature estates, the demand exceeds supply by about 10 to 1. We just simply do not have land in mature estates, like Toa Payoh or Ang Mo Kio, to build flats. There is just simply no land. For example, in Toa Payoh recently, we put up 270 flats for booking and we have 4,300 applicants, or a ratio of 1:16. So for every person who gets a flat, 15 are disappointed. Dr Ho Tat Kin suggested that we have a queuing system. If we have a queuing system, we will have a riot. And there is no way to satisfy the remaining 4,000 applicants because there is just simply no land left. In Ang Mo Kio, we estimate that we have only enough land to build just 800 more flats and I am sure there are more than 4,000 applicants waiting in the wings to apply for flats in Ang Mo Kio. So the queuing system does not work in the mature estates. The supply is just not there. In scarce resources, there are only three ways to allocate: queuing, balloting or tendering. If you do not like balloting because it is a lottery, will you accept tendering? The second category is new towns on transition to becoming a mature town. These are towns which are nearing completion and land is running out for flat development. Like mature estates, such new towns in transition are very popular because the facilities are all built up and there is a lot of publicity. Two good examples are Pasir Ris and Tampines. In Tampines, at the last quarter exercise, there were 25 applicants to every flat. So Tampines is now facing the same situation as Ang Mo Kio, if not worse, because we publicised the Design and Build Programme and the World Habitat Award for Tampines. So there was a huge surge in the demand and now it is 25:1. Again, there is no way we can have a queuing system because there is only land available in Tampines for 5,600 flats and already there are 18,000 unsuccessful applicants for Tampines New Town. The final category of estates are those which are under development. These are Jurong West, Chua Chu Kang, Woodlands and in future towns, like Sembawang and Kangkar. In these areas, HDB has a steady stream of land to build more flats when the demand requires. And in these areas, we do have a modified queuing system in place. Applicants who tender for the flats consistently in these areas build up the weightage in the probability in which they get their flats and new household applicants will get their flats in these new towns within one year from the date of first application. So if people choose these new towns where we can have a continuous stream of development, they are assured that within one year of their application they can book their flat. So there is plenty of certainty in these new towns. But people choose to go to the mature estates and to the nearing mature estates and they claim that they do not have certainty. What can we do? So there is no necessity to reintroduce a waiting list system for these new towns. There is a modified queuing system. New household applicants will select their flats within one year and upgraders will select their flats within two years, if they stick to these new towns. The demand has not increased since the implementation of the booking system. Today, we have about 40,000 odd applying each quarter and this comprises 20,000 new households, because new families are created every year, and 20,000 from upgraders. Let me now turn to affordability of HDB flats. As I mentioned just now, we do track the percentage of household income being taken up by housing and we do make sure that it remains at around 25% to 30%. In the case of 3-room flats, the monthly mortgage payment for 3-room flats, as a proportion of the average monthly income, has, in fact, fallen from 15% in 1985 to 9% in 1992. For 4-room flats, although the prices have gone up, the mortgage payment for a 4-room flat, as a proportion of average income, has remained constant at about 22% to 23%. HDB prices have to go up because HDB flats are primarily cost-driven. Increases in the HDB flats over the past two years are due primarily to the significant increases in construction and land costs. Government is, therefore, forced to raise the prices of HDB flats but we try to do so by a smaller amount than the rise in the construction cost. As a result, the subsidy has gone up. The average subsidy per flat sold was $23,000 in FY 91/92 and is now estimated to be $32,000 for FY 92/93. Our approach to pricing of HDB flats is that, as a general policy, HDB flats are priced to ensure that 3-room and 4-room flats are affordable to the lower and average income groups. The higher income groups who can afford to buy bigger flats, like the 5-room and Executive flats, will pay for the costs of the bigger areas, better design and better finishes. But my Ministry will make sure that housing will remain affordable for the lower-income groups. We are looking at several measures to make sure that the lower-income groups will continue to be able to buy flats in the future. First, the HDB intends to build smaller 4-room flats with simpler design and finishes towards the end of 1993. These flats will cost about 10% to 20% less than the normal 4-room flats. The selling prices will, therefore, be correspondingly lower. Second, at this juncture, I would like to announce that my Ministry has also reviewed the HDB's Mortgage Loan Financing Scheme for the purchase of resale flats, the subject taken up by both Dr Vasoo and Dr Tan Cheng Bock. We agree that the current financing of pegging the loans to the posted prices is a bit out of date and we are revising it. The mortgage loan finance will now be increased on 1st April 1993 to 80% of the market value, or 80% of the transacted sale price, whichever is lower. For families with income not exceeding $1,000 per month, the loan is revised to 95% of the market value, or 95% of the transacted sale price, whichever is lower. So this will allow lower-income families to afford 3-room flats in the resale market without recourse to cash. Dr Koh Lip Lin said that the increase in demand for rental flats is because of increase in prices. That is not the case. The increase in demand for rental flats is because, over the last two years, HDB has relaxed the requirements for applicants for rental flats, in particular, we have relaxed the age requirement for applicants for rental flats. And this has resulted in a big increase in the demand for rental flats. Similarly, the increase in demand for HDB flats is not because of higher prices. I have assured Singaporeans that the construction prices for HDB flats are likely to be stable this year because the construction sector is stabilising and we do not expect to see big increases in HDB prices this year. Let me now turn to the subject of Town Councils. Mr Peh asked whether we will investigate misuse of funds by Town Councils for political purposes. Let me assure him that we will. And if we catch any Town Council violating financial regulations and misusing funds, we will take action. Mr Cheo and Mr Low Thia Khiang complained that the high percentage of contributions to the sinking funds has resulted in lower operating revenue for the Town Councils. Let me explain. We have found, through our experience, that Town Councils are not putting aside enough money to fund their future cyclical funds. The previous 25% is grossly inadequate because of the rising cost of cyclical maintenance. We have hoped to leave it to the Town Councils to use their judgement and increase the contributions on their own. Unfortunately, that does not happen. So now we require all Town Councils, PAP or Opposition, to increase their contributions to the sinking fund. Mr Cheo said, why put it in now? He will raise it later on when the need arises. I am sorry, Mr Cheo, we may not be around when the need arises. So it is better for us to put the money in the sinking fund and all Singaporeans are assured the money is there for future cyclical works. Mr Cheo said that we are forcing all Town Councils to increase it by 5%. That is not true. We give Town Councils the option and a free hand. If they want to raise, they notify us and we will give them the additional grant. If they do not want to raise, we will let it be. The rationale is this. The Government has pledged to give more grants to Town Councils which are running tight. If you are running tight and you need to raise your S&C charges to fund your operations, the Government will step in and help you and give you more grant.